With the dust settled on the regular season, the Lakers now turn their attention to the playoffs and their first- round matchup with the Houston Rockets.
Despite having a better record and home-court advantage over their Western Conference counterpart, Los Angeles is projected to be a large underdog in the series. That’s the harsh reality of losing both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves to injury. But these are the cards they have been dealt and work with if they hope to extend the season long enough
for their star backcourt to return.
Even without Dončić and Reaves in the fold, there will still be plenty of intrigue and storylines surrounding the series.
Among them are lofty expectations for unexpected players, a center with much to prove, and a potential final encounter between two legendary forwards. So let’s take a look at who and what may decide the winner.
How will the Lakers’ guards fare against the Rockets’ perimeter defense?
The natural first response to the Lakers losing both Dončić and Reaves ahead of the playoffs was to question how they could ever replicate their production.
From a raw numbers perspective, the Lakers are missing a combined 56.8 points and 13.8 assists from their lineup. And from an intangible perspective, the gravity and creation ability lost can not go overlooked.
Yes, LeBron James will be looked upon to shoulder this weight (more on that later). But the Lakers will need meaningful contributions from everyone, specifically their other guards, if they hope to improve their odds of advancing.
The two players who are most likely to be tasked with stepping up are Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart.
These aren’t the names fans envisioned that their postseason hopes would rest on. Yet, the duo is the only option left. Fortunately, both have shown the capability to take on more responsibility when given the chance.
Since joining the team, Kennard has proved he is much more than just a shooter. His knack for attacking closeouts, driving to the rim and flashing passing chops are reasons why he has been an invaluable blender starter.
Those ancillary skills have only continued to pop as Kennard has upped his usage (+8.3%) and assist (+16.9%) rates significantly since Dončić and Reaves have been out.
While Kennard should get plenty of on-ball reps against Houston, the Lakers may lean on Smart even more.
The veteran guard has become a fan favorite thanks to his stingy defense, impressive on/off numbers and role as a connector on offense. With Smart’s history as an on-ball player on the Celtics, the Lakers will try to tap back into his previous experience handling playmaking responsibilities in the short term.
Smart dished out 10 assists in the Lakers’ season finale as he worked himself back into the groove of things after previously missing nine games. It was an encouraging proof of concept. However, it is important to contextualize it came against a lowly Utah Jazz and not a Rockets’ squad with piranhas on the perimeter.
Spearheaded by the breathtaking defense of Amen Thompson, the Rockets also equip a slew of rangy and feisty options to sic on the Lakers’ ball-handlers.
“They’re going to try to come in and punk us,” Smart said of the Rockets’ physicality. “And if you will allow that, you will be punked. And I don’t think we have any guys that are going to be punked on this team.”
Protecting the ball will have to be a point of emphasis, as Houston was one of the most consistent teams at shutting off the water against opposing first options. They were sixth-best in defending isolations and fourth in checking the ball-handler in the pick and roll, according to league tracking data. Collectively, they also had the third-stingiest half-court defense.
Kennard’s trademark shooting and Smart’s defense will still need to remain staples to their games. But how effectively they can do a little of everything else — especially against a fierce opponent — could make the difference.
Can Deandre Ayton hold his own on both ends?
After getting mauled by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the playoffs last year, the primary objective for the Lakers in the offseason was to add more size. Namely, finding a starting caliber center.
While his individual performance has waxed and waned this year, Deandre Ayton has mostly shored up that glaring need. However, as has been the case throughout his career, one can not help but long for more when it comes to Ayton’s play.
That feeling can’t be the case against the Rockets. The postseason is why the Lakers signed Ayton. And it will benefit both sides if the postseason is where Ayton performs his best on both ends.
On defense, Ayton will get the lion’s share of minutes guarding Alperen Şengün. It’s a tough matchup for anyone. The talented and versatile big man has presented challenges for the Lakers dating back to Anthony Davis’ tenure with the team.
Şengün averaged 20.5 points (77.7% true shooting), 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and was a+15.5 in the boxscore in his two games against Los Angeles this season.
With Şengün’s improved ability to space the floor and acting as the trigger man in the Rockets’ dribble handoff sets, Ayton will have to be nimble enough to hang on the perimeter while staying sturdy enough to bang with him in the paint.
Beyond playing stout defense, Ayton will also need to make Şengün work on the other end as well.
After his polarizing comment about the Rockets’ other big, Clint Capela, went viral, Ayton did little to back up his gusto during the team’s regular-season meetings. He notoriously grabbed only two rebounds in their first matchup and averaged just 5.7 boards and 11 points across three games.
Given Houston’s historic rebounding prowess and bulky front court, Ayton will have to be on his game every night.
He doesn’t need to outplay Şengün or be the best center in the series for the Lakers to win. But he does need to be engaged and able to hold his own.
Will LeBron or KD have a bigger impact?
After years of interweaving in and out of each other’s careers, the basketball pendulum has finally swung LeBron James and Kevin Durant back into a collision.
Three Finals meetings and 14 playoff contests later, James and Durant will square off once again. Perhaps for the last time.
For as much as has changed in the NBA since their last battle, the expectations for James, 41, and Durant, 37, remain the same. Both will be looked upon by their respective teams to lead them, set the example and be the best player on the court.
With his younger star teammates out, James has expectantly been asked to revert as the Lakers’ primary offensive hub.
His 29.2% usage rate on the season (his lowest since 2004) has jumped up to a whopping 39.5% mark in the Lakers’ final four games without Dončić and Reaves.
While obviously not a sustainable recipe for success, it does paint a picture of how dire the Lakers’ scoring creation is expected to be without their starting backcourt.
How well James fares as both a scorer and playmaker could be the deciding factor in the series. The same applies to Durant.
KD terrorized the Lakers from an efficiency standpoint (67.2% true shooting) in the regular season, but Los Angeles did a solid job containing him, as his 20.3 point average in those games could attest.
This was accomplished by the Lakers exploiting Houston’s primary offensive weakness — a lack of ball-handling and shot creation.
Like the Lakers, the Rockets find themselves sapped of perimeter offensive juice outside of Durant. Knowing this, head coach JJ Redick and staff were steadfast in their gameplan against Durant, often sending doubles, trapping and forcing the ball out of his hands in the half court.
This aggressive approach led Durant to average as many turnovers (4.7) as assists (4.7) against the Lakers this season.
If Durant can shake free and or the rest of the Rockets help shoulder the scoring, it may be difficult for the Lakers to consistently keep one of the NBA’s most prolific offensive weapons contained.
Like it has so many times before, the series may just come down to which of James or Durant can have the biggest impact. The pieces around them may be different, but the central figures of this era still find themselves front and center.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.
