I take pride in at least a few times a week breaking down the next day’s matchup and giving you some insight into what the next game is likely to look at. No magic there, matchups can often tell you so much about what to expect. Particularly when we see a certain guy struggling with high pitch counts or struggling on the road or whatever. So I have to laugh and be fair when I get it wrong:
He gets deep into games, the Cubs have to beat Houser to win probably. It would be great if Imanaga can pitch
into the seventh and shorten this one up for the bullpen.
Yeah. Whoops. Imanaga allowed three runs over five. Houser left after six leading 3-2. So the Cubs didn’t get the length I was looking for and they also didn’t get to Houser. The exact scenario that I didn’t want was getting into their leverage relievers trailing. To be fair, if I’d gone way deep into analysis, it isn’t that the Rays bullpen is particularly fearsome. It’s just more of a recognition that in the modern era of baseball, relying on late comebacks is often a losing proposition. Teams possessing waves of hard throwers and funky deliveries to close out games makes it navigating a minefield late.
I have to admit, when Willi Castro grounded into a rare 1-2-3 double play, I felt like this one might not be the Cubs’ day. They were already down 3-1 and losing a bases-loaded, one-out situation without getting even one run felt like it would come back to haunt them. Then Javier Assad started the sixth with a rare relief appearance. He started rough and it looked like the Rays might add on. But with second and third and one out, Assad came up with a huge strikeout and then a harmless pop out to escape. Then he got a double play ball with runners on first and third and out in the seventh for a second escape.
Assad’s outing was rough and yet absolutely instrumental to the mini come from behind victory. I tip my hat to the Cubs. Their respect for their teammates, their coaches and the organization have been on display throughout. Guys have been moved up and down the lineup, in and out of the lineup, into different roles on the pitching staff. A lot of guys have been used in a lot of different ways. They all just seem to roll with it. I’m sure a few of them have been frustrated after having seen their role shrink, but also they all seem to play hard and work their way back into a bigger role. Assad is just the latest example of that. Also, is Andrew Kittredge the fourth different Cub to feel like the closer at some point (Pressly, very briefly Hodge, Palencia and Kittredge)?
Offensively, it was a trio of home grown players leading the way with a pair of hits each. Those were Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Moisés Ballesteros. Those three just happened to bat 2-3-4 in the lineup and combined for six of the 10 hits, the only homer and all four runs driven in.
Another win. On the road again for one final road trip of the regular season. 85 wins in the books. The Cubs should clinch a playoff spot on the upcoming trip. The top Wild Card spot isn’t super far behind that. What a ride it has been. And it is definitely going to be extended at least a little further.
Pitch Counts:
- Rays: 131, 35 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 160, 38 BF
Advantage Rays here. Rays pitchers threw 16.375 pitches per inning. Cub pitchers threw 17.77 pitches per inning. Both teams are in that second cut. Working hard, but not into the disaster zone. Interestingly, with 10 hits and three walks drawn, the Cubs feel fortunate to win this one. It’s kind of a give and take though. Two huge double plays cost the Cubs chances to score more. But the one the Rays hit into was huge too. The Rays hit two homers to account for most of their offense. Imanaga has been plagued by homers all year long. He’s thrown 39 fewer innings this year and allowed only one less homer. He has limited the damage by limiting walks. But it’s curious how many homers he’s allowed even with Wrigley being increasingly difficult to hit in.
Assad threw 46 pitches and has been stretched as a starter. If we see him in the Pirates series, I imagine it will be Wednesday at the earliest. More likely we don’t see him until Cincinnati. Caleb Thielbar has thrown in three straight once this year. I’d be very surprised if Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers weren’t the first two lefties out of the pen Monday. Kittredge pitched the bookends of the series. He’ll be available and I’m sure Craig Counsell is going to want to get Brad Keller back out there right away too.
Three Stars:
- Nico’s big day. He had two more hits, one a double. He drove in three runs, including the tying and winning runs. He creeps up to .299. This hot streak is getting very interesting with just 13 games remaining. Nico is one of the most under rated players in baseball and my favorite Cub.
- Ian Happ had a single and a homer. His homer in the sixth felt like it put the wind back into the sails of the Cubs after squandering some earlier opportunities. wRC+ for the season is up to 117 and his career number matches that. Another under appreciated Cub.
- Moisés Ballesteros had two singles and drew a walk. Echoes of a young Kyle Schwarber, even if they are very different types of hitters. It appears the bat can play at the major league level. How patient do you want to be for him to potentially carry some load as a catcher? He doesn’t have any real position otherwise and you get painted into a corner with DH-only players.
Game 149, September 14: Cubs 4, Rays 3 (85-64)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.474). 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI. This is the fifth largest WPA game of the season by a Cub player and Nico’s highest since April 15, 2024 (.576).
- Hero: Andrew Kittredge (.158). IP, 4 BF, BB, 3 K (Sv 5)
- Sidekick: Javier Assad (.143). 2.1 IP, 10 BF, 2 H, 2 BB, K (W 3-1)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Reese McGuire (-.163) 0-4
- Goat: Willi Castro (-.134). 1-3, BB, R, DP
- Kid: Shōta Imanaga (-.104). 5 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 9K
WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the seventh, the Cubs down one. He doubled and both runners scored, putting the Cubs ahead to stay. (.444)
*Rays Play of the Game: Adrian Houser faced Will Castro with the bases loaded and one out. He got a grounder straight back to him and started a pitcher to home to first, inning-ending double play. (.194)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Moisés Ballesteros (44 of 86 votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd+20
- Shōta Imanaga +19
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Cade Horton +15.5
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Dansby Swanson -17.33
- Ben Brown -19
- Carson Kelly -21
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 3.5). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 8.5; Mets max is 89 wins). Giants lose (Cubs up 10; Giants max is 88 wins). Reds lost (Cubs up 11; Reds max is 87 wins). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 4 with 13 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers lost (Cubs down 5.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates (65-85) for three. The Pirates have lost eight of 10, but do have a 42-33 record at home. Jameson Taillon (9-6, 4.15, 110.2 IP) starts for the Cubs for the 21st time. He came off his second IL stint of the year last time and allowed two runs on six hits over 4.1 IP. He allowed six hits and two walks while striking out two. Monday night, he returns to face the team that made him the second overall pick in the 2010 draft. He’s faced them once this year, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over 6.1 IP in a start in Wrigley Field.
The Pirates appear set to use Braxton Ashcraft (4-2, 2.47, 58.1 IP). Ashcraft’s numbers look a bit like an opener. But he has thrown at least 56 pitches in his last six appearances and has gone over 70 twice. Sometimes, though, that 60-75 pitches only gets him through three innings. The 25-year-old right-handed rookie was the second round pick of the Pirates in 2018 (51st overall). Over his last seven outings, he has a 1.98 ERA (27.1 IP), so don’t sleep on him. June 14 he came out of the pen with two perfect innings at Wrigley. Then on August 15, he allowed one run on three hits and no walks over five innings at Wrigley. So the Cubs haven’t hit him well yet at all.
Run Ashcraft’s pitch count up, get into the pen and win this one in the back half. Keep the final playoff push rolling. It would be great to clinch everything on this road trip and give Craig Counsell plenty of time to decide exactly how he wants to lineup for the playoffs.
