With the MLB off-season roughly half over and a new year upon us, it’s a good time to look ahead. You know, fresh starts and all of that.
Dave Dombrowski has not given the Phillies the facelift many of
you reading this wanted to see after a second straight season in which they won the NL East but failed to win a single playoff series. Some old faces were brought back, a familiar one was sent away (see ya, Matt Strahm!) with another almost certain to follow (adios, Nick!), and some new folks have joined the fold as well. Barring a surprise, it’s fair to assume most of the team’s heavy lifting is done. J.T. Realmuto’s return is really the only item presumably on Dombrowski’s check list.
If you’ve listened to any of my recent Hittin’ Season podcasts, you know I haven’t been pleased with the off-season thus far. Of course, it’s not Dombrowski’s job to make me happy, it’s to make the team better. Has he done so?
While I am optimistic the Phillies will once again be “good” this coming season, I’m not at all happy with the off-season and have many worries that, in some aspects, they will take a step back in ‘26. But in the spirit of starting a new year on positive footing, here are five reasons Phillies fans should feel good about what lies ahead this season.
Kyle Schwarber’s Return
There was an argument to be made that the Phillies’ roster might be better if the money used to sign the NL MVP runner-up and league home run champion was used for other players at other positions. They could have used it to sign Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker to play in the outfield, or Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette to handle an infield spot, trade away Alec Bohm, and so forth. Instead, Dombrowski decided that he wanted to bring back the spiritual leader of the clubhouse and the NL’s best slugger to finish his career in Philadelphia, try to hit 500 home runs and make the Hall of Fame wearing a Phillies “P” on his plaque.
This is Schwarber’s team. Unless and until Harper’s production ticks up (more on that in a moment), Kyle Schwarber is their most important player. The Phillies need his consistent power stroke, his ability to get on base, as well as all the intangibles he brings to the table, even if it does mean the DH spot is occupied for the next five seasons.
We’re all happy Schwarber is back.
Angry Bryce Harper
I’m sure, by now, you’ve all seen this.
No, Harper was not elite a season ago. He ranked 47th out of all qualified players with 3.5 fWAR, tied with three other players: Michael Busch, Masyn Winn, and Jacob Wilson. I don’t think anyone can argue any of those players are “elite.” His 131 wRC+ was tied for 25th. His .844 OPS was 22nd. Again, a fine season, but not elite. Dombrowski was correct to speculate whether Harper can be an elite player again.
Harper, wearing that T-shirt and posting it on Instagram, is trying to tell the fans something. He’s either trying to tell the fans he’s really still mad and offended at Dombrowski’s comments, or he’s trying to make us think he’s really mad. Either way, he’s trying to use it as motivation.
That’s fine. I want Bryce Harper to enter 2026 with a chip on his shoulder. Harper is a player who has always thrived when motivated by vengeance (Orlando Arcia, anyone?). Whether manufactured or real, a motivated Harper is a better player. Is it enough to get that OPS to creep over .900 and his slugging percentage to be over .500? Is it enough for him to hit 30+ home runs and, more importantly, come through more frequently in clutch situations, as had been his history up until last season?
There’s reason to be optimistic it will.
Better Bullpen
When the 2025 season began, Jordan Romano was the closer. Orion Kerkering was the main right-handed set-up man, and Jose Ruiz was being counted on to get important outs for the Phillies. Entering this season, the back of the bullpen is in much better shape.
For the first time since Rob Thomson was manager, he enters a season with a bona fide closer. Jhoan Duran is one of the best in the game and gives the Phils a huge boost in that spot. Brad Keller, the free agent signing from the Cubs, is coming off a tremendous year as Chicago’s set-up man, giving the Phils two tremendous right-handed options there, along with Kerkering, who must bounce back from last year’s disastrous error in Game 4. Matt Strahm is gone, but a full season of Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks’ emergence as a reliable left-hander should engender more trust once the starters are out.
Cristopher Sanchez, the Ace
Had Cristopher Sanchez not emerged as a Cy Young candidate and true No. 1 starter on a playoff-caliber team last season, the health of Zack Wheeler would be a much bigger story than it currently is. Sanchez so easily replaced Wheeler’s production down the stretch and in the Phils’ aborted postseason run, that it’s easy to forget he only emerged as the team’s best pitcher a season ago.
That being said, Sanchez’ ascent has been continuous over the last few seasons, and there appears to be no signs of regression. He has increased his innings totals in every season, going from 99.1 in 2023 to 181.2 in ‘24 and 202 innings a season ago. In those 202 innings, he struck out 212 batters and walked the same amount, 44, as he did the season before, only with an additional 21 innings. He put up an NL-best 8.0 WAR and finished second to Paul Skenes in the Cy Young voting.
Jesus Luzardo’s emergence down the stretch as an electric No. 2 starter also helped take some of the sting of Aaron Nola’s under-performance and injury-riddled season. The optimistic take here is that Sanchez and Luzardo repeat their 2025 performances and the Phils see a return to glory for Wheeler and Nola.
The Prospects Produce
There is a lot the Phillies might have done these past two off-seasons if they had been willing to include one or multiples of their Big 3 prospects, Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford and/or Aidan Miller, in trades. Dave Dombrowski has refused to do so, understanding that as the team ages, they will need younger and cheaper reinforcements if they don’t want to climb into the mid-$300 millions in terms of payroll.
Dombrowski is letting Ranger Suarez leave Philadelphia with the idea Painter will slide into the rotation as a high-end No. 5. Painter encountered significant struggles coming off of Tommy John surgery with AAA Lehigh Valley last season, posting a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts, with a 1.547 WHIP. That said, it’s not unusual for pitchers to struggle with location coming off of that surgery, and the hope is the 23-year-old will feature the type of stuff and command that allowed him to become the game’s top pitching prospect at one point.
Dombrowski also chose not to re-sign Harrison Bader to a long-term contract, and with Adolis Garcia the “big” outfield addition this off-season, Crawford will be asked to be the everyday center fielder on Opening Day. Crawford has been consistently excellent in the minors, capped with a AAA season in which he posted an .863 OPS with 46 stolen bases in 112 games at Lehigh Valley. Sure, there are concerns about his unusually high ground ball rate as well as his defense in center, but he has the physical tools to be an excellent all-around player.
As for Miller, it’s unlikely he starts the season in Philly, and with Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott still on the roster, there’s nowhere for him to play, anyway. Miller endured a slow start in AA Reading in 2025, but picked it up significantly late in the season. In 108 games there he posted an .810 OPS with 13 HRs, 25 doubles and an eye-popping 52 stolen bases, with a .382 OBP. There is hope the power numbers will tick back up as he gets comfortable in AAA this season, and it will be interesting to see if, given the logjam in the infield, if the shortstop gets some time in left or right field in the minors.
In order for Dombrowski’s off-season plans to work, they really need all three of these prospects to turn into well above average Major League players, and sooner rather than later.
