The Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs will play the fifth, and perhaps final, game in their first-round 2026 NBA Playoffs series this evening. The Spurs lead 3-1. Portland is on the brink of elimination.
Before the festivities commence and/or end, we have one more conversation with J.R. Wilco of Blazer’s Edge sister site Pounding the Rock. The back-and-forth includes talk on Scoot Henderson, San Antonio’s guards, and the potential future of the Blazers. Take a look!
J.R.
Two questions after
Game 4
First, Scoot Henderson’s play on both ends has been one of Portland’s highlights for me in this series, and his no-show in Game 4 surprised me. Do you feel this says anything about his long term outlook or his ceiling, and do you see anything in the way his smack talk in Game 3 lit a fire under Dylan Harper and could that have set up Sunday’s performance/lack thereof?
Second, I didn’t like Castle putting the ball in Deni’s chest after Avdija’s foul in the fourth, but it shows the emotions going on behind the stoic facade Stephon usually maintains. Deni’s a fiery guy and he definitely got fiery Sunday afternoon; what do you expect from him and the team in Game 5 as far as emotion and intensity? How chippy do you think it’ll get on Tuesday?
Dave
The story on Scoot hasn’t changed from the last frat. Nothing shows anything about Scoot Henderson’s long-term potential. He goes up and down, like waves coming into a beach. If you try to predict the exact flow, you’re just going to get frustrated. What you want to see is the tide coming in overall, that it’s higher this month than it was last. That’s generally true of Scoot, but you’re still going to get some barnacle-smelly ebbs in the wave pattern.
Castle can do whatever Castle wants to do. So can Deni. Neither the Spurs nor the Blazers have been to the playoffs before and it shows. Portland is celebrating small moments and missing the big picture. San Antonio is jawing about coming back in games they never should have been down in. Any competent, veteran opponent would wrap either team up and send them home to mama right now. The difference is, the Spurs are going to have a chance to correct that in subsequent rounds while Portland won’t. Either way, it’s like watching two puppies bark at each other before somebody opens the gate and lets the Big Dog in.
As far as Game 5, your guess is as good as anybody’s.
The Blazers could come out physically, mixing it up and fighting. I halfway doubt we’ll see this simply because there seems to be a fatigue/injury factor going on underneath the surface. In Game 3 Deni Avdija had worked up a huge sweat and was grabbing his shorts before hardly any time had elapsed. Jerami Grant looks a half a step slower than usual. It doesn’t feel like they have a whole lot of physical fight left in them outside of Henderson and Toumani Camara. Usually you’d expect Donovan Clingan to provide some of that too, but he’s disappeared. Some of that might be inexperience and bad matchups. He’s gotten whistled for a bunch of fouls in limited minutes too. He may be inside his own head about how to play at this point.
Either way, the Blazers could play chippy, but it’s just as likely they’ll come out flat and end it with a whimper. We’ve seen both this season. You never know what you’re going to get with this team. Best bet is that they fight for a little bit, then surrender when the outcome becomes obvious. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but whatever they’re doing, it’s like a train going downhill. When they’re good, nobody is going to stop them. When they’re bad, all the timeouts in the world won’t turn it around. It’s like dealing with a toddler. “Don’t do that! Don’t do that! Don’t do that! Awwww…he did that.”
But hey, you must be happy about Harper and Castle. Fox even peeked his head through the curtain in Game 4. Wemby has some help?
J.R.
Yeah, Wemby has some help and that’s the source of most of my positive anticipation for Game 5. Wemby’s enough fun to watch just himself, but even at the best of his best, in his current form, he’s totally unable to consistently control the game on offense. And I don’t mean only in the way that the league’s elite do, I mean just in the way ordinary excellent offensive players can.
It’s not just that teams regularly take him out of what he wants to do, sometimes all it takes is the right player! You’ve seen Holiday do it for stretches. Now imagine that going on for an entire game. It was the source of frustration for me most of the season until Wemby figured out (around the middle of February) that he doesn’t need to score in order for the Spurs to have a dominant offense.
Since then, he’s been willing to play off ball and let his roll gravity create the space that frees up his teammates, which brings us back to the help you mentioned and reveals Wemby as a counterpuncher. It doesn’t take much basketball IQ to know that Wemby is the alpha dog on defense, but on offense, he’s a far better wingman than he is an ace. Like Maverick, he had to decide to stick by Iceman and play second fiddle before he got to be the star and knock the rest of those MiGs out of the sky. When the other team’s defense is focusing on stopping the rest of the team, then Wemby is primed to score in bunches.
Speaking of scoring in bunches, is the addition of a deadeye shooter or two all Avdija needs to make Portland an offensive force, or are there more gaps that need to be plugged?
Dave
Deadeye shooters replacing what, though? The Blazers are at their best when they have a hyper-athletic, long quintet playing aggressive help defense…well, at least four players and then Donovan Clingan watching the paint. As soon as holes in that defense appear, though, it tends to fall apart. The way Portland plays, they can’t go four-fifths hard. They have to go all the way or nothing.
So now, let’s put in your hypothetical shooter or two. Can they defend? Are they long and athletic? If so, how will the Blazers ever acquire them?
(My bad, I forgot who I’m talking with. See, in the rest of the league outside of San Antonio, you can’t just visit the lottery like your local convenience store and pick up premium players whenever you wish because you get promoted to a Top 4 pick 70% of the time you walk through the door. Buc Ee SilverBeaver may be slipping you the, “Buy a brisket sandwich and get a generational center free!” combo deal but most teams actually have to trade good players to get good players. Or they pick lower in the draft and make compromises, favoring some skills while sacrificing others. Just about everybody Portland has falls into that category.)
If, on the other hand, these new shooters are not great defenders and/or not athletic, now you’re poking holes in the defensive scheme in order to generate more offense. That might bring marginal improvement, but not enough to vault the Blazers into contention.
Unfortunately, Portland’s best chance is probably waiting until the 2028-2030 draft corridor, hoping to get lucky and/or promoted with the picks and swaps they received from the Milwaukee Bucks in the Damian Lillard deal back in ‘23.
Side Note: The “pOrtLanD mAKeS bAd dE-ciZZ-uNs DERP!” crowd should follow the provenance of that trade chain. With the proceeds of the Lillard deal and a couple modest throw-ins the Blazers secured Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III, Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard himself, and potentially all of Milwaukee’s first-round picks from 2028-30. For those counting, in a two-year span Portland got both principals in the original superstar trade, an NBA All-Star on top of that, plus an All-Defensive Team forward, one of the best reserve centers in the league, and three future first-round picks that have a decent chance to be lottery-level.
Net Cost for Avdija, Camara, Holiday, Lillard, Williams, and three shots at the lottery if Milwaukee sucks: Anfernee Simons, Jusuf Nurkic, and one middling first-round pick. The Blazers are literally those guys that buy real estate using other people’s money. They should start a late-night infomercial about a seminar coming to your area.
(Imagine if Deandre Ayton had been any good. Portland got him in that deal chain too. If only…sigh.)
Returning to the topic: Even if those Milwaukee picks work out perfectly, how far will the Blazers be behind the Spurs in continuity and experience by 2030? You can see what a bind those ping-pong balls put us in. It’s like playing the card game War and giving the opponent all the aces before the deal. Can you beat them? Maybe, with some luck. Is it likely? Ehhhh…
Failing that, the Blazers can try to bundle those Bucks picks and swaps with young players like Shaedon Sharpe or Scoot Henderson to try and entice another team out of their current star in favor of a fresh-start rebuild. But who’s going for that? Could Portland get Devin Booker from Phoenix? Would that make enough of a difference? I don’t think Scottie Barnes is available in Toronto and he’s not a good shooter anyway. I mean, the pickings on contention-boosting, high-percentage marksmen are kind of slim.
Some people are hoping Lillard comes back next year and makes that difference, but this is mid-30’s, post-injury Dame, not the 26-year-old version. I’d say anything he gives the Blazers is gravy. Plus there’s that whole defense thing. Love to have him. Don’t think he’s leading us to a title.
Blah blah blah. We’ll be talking about these topics all through the summer. The only question is whether that will start tonight or whether we’ll get another couple days to distract ourselves with the playoffs series.
I’d wish you good luck in Game 5 but that would be like giving Elon Musk a $100 Spencer’s Gift Card. So I’ll just say thanks for talking, enjoy your spring, and we can chat again in the unlikely event the Blazers and Spurs get to a Game 7.
