It may certainly be “Same Old Jets” vibes at 2-6, with another season seemingly over before we’ve even gotten through most of November. But while this team isn’t good, I do think it’s quite a bit different than the majority of the Jets teams we’ve seen over the last several years.
Some previous Jets teams have outright sucked and actually managed to win a few games they probably shouldn’t have. This one is losing games they likely should be winning based on how they played on the field. It doesn’t
make it any less frustrating, but to me, there’s been a slight difference. Here are some broader takeaways I now have after nearly half the season is complete:
The Offense Has a Bright Future
Through nearly half the season, as crazy as it is to say about a 2-win team, this Jets offense is probably pacing to be one of the better Jets offenses of the last 15 years or so. Let’s take a look at where some prior Jets offenses ranked through eight weeks: 29th, 17th, 32nd, 30th, 26th, and 32nd. Being 12th in EPA/Play and 10th in Success Rate is an extreme upgrade over what we’ve become accustomed to watching.
Nearly any metric you choose to utilize paints this offense as, at worst, average. Even more depressingly, put this offense on some of the Jets teams in recent memory (in particular, the Saleh ones), and this Jets team would have been a legit playoff contender.
Sometimes teams in small samples can have misleading metrics or stats that aren’t indicative of future performance. In this offense’s case, I don’t think that’s true. I think there’s a pretty legitimate reason to be optimistic about the offense going forward.
Outside of Geno Smith yesterday, everyone who started on that offense is under contract next year. The average age of those guys was 23.8. That’s crazy young. And the majority of these guys, whether at the skill positions or on the offensive line, were early picks. This is the type of continuity the Jets have never really been able to establish on that side of the ball. At least not in recent memory.
Offenses are historically proven to be way more consistent than defenses year over year. Normally, it’s much more difficult to improve upon your offense than your defense, as Jets fans unfortunately know. There’s reason to believe what we’re seeing isn’t just some random stretch of good performances, either.
To me, it’s very believable that guys like Adonai Mitchell, Omar Cooper, Braelon Allen, Mason Taylor, and Kenyon Sadiq continue to improve. None of these guys have played a ton of football, and all had various traits that made them enticing as prospects.
Armand Membou, Joe Tippmann, and Olu Fashanu I’d consider all to be, at the very worst, average NFL starting offensive linemen. Membou in particular has been lights out since his struggles to start the year. To me, there’s enough glimpses, whether on tape or statistically, to show that almost all these guys are NFL-caliber starters.
The red-zone struggles are another story entirely, and to me, you need to look long and hard at the staff on this. It’s honestly hard to grasp how an offense can move the ball as consistently as this one does between the 20s and then struggle so much once it gets inside the red zone. Is it Reich? Is it Geno? Is it luck? I’m not quite sure. I’d love to see the correlation, but I have to think it’s pretty uncommon for an offense to perform this well between the 20s and be this bad once the field gets shorter.
Regardless, due to the long-term makeup of this roster, I think it’s very plausible that the supporting cast around the quarterback just gets better and better over these next few years. A lot of this will depend on who the young future QB is going to be, but overall, there’s a lot to like here.
The Record Might Be Slightly Misleading
I expect to get some blowback here. And to be fair, I would fully understand it. No one wants to hear it, especially when the team just let two games against mediocre to bad teams slip away, but the Jets are probably slightly unlucky to be 2-6 right now.
Looking at Net EPA/Play, the Jets are in an extremely similar tier to the Raiders, Texans, Giants, Panthers, and Ravens. All of those teams have better records than the Jets.
The main problem for the Jets? They’ve been losing almost every close game they’ve been in. They’ve now blown multiple fourth-quarter leads. They have lost a whopping four games this year in which they outperformed their opponent on a Success Rate basis.
This shows up in their record in one-score games. For example, The Jets are now 1-5 in one-score games. A team like the Giants? 1 loss in 5 one-score games. A 3-1-1 record. That’s a major difference.
Now, I don’t want to sit here and say the players and staff deserve ZERO blame for this. They obviously do, especially when we watch them fail to execute in critical situations, both in regard to clock management and on-field performance. But simply put, most metrics show this team probably should have a win or two more than they do based on how they’ve performed. Some of it is simply bad luck.
The Defense Needs Serious Attention
We talked positively about the offense. I think it’s a unit where we’re beginning to see high-pick investments start to turn things around. The defense, on the other hand, is a completely different story.
This defense is a mess. Top to bottom, I’m not sure this unit does one thing well. The secondary has now really begun to struggle after a strong start. The linebackers are inconsistent week over week. And the defensive front is reliant on a rookie to be a game-breaking talent despite playing only seven career games.
Many, if not most, of the free agent signings have been marginal upgrades at best, and looking forward, there are very, very few long-term pieces here. How many of these guys can you feel confident will be starters for the Jets 2-3 years from now on defense?
I think David Bailey is someone you can be confident about. T’Vondre Sweat also showed enough flashes where I think he’s going to be a nice long-term piece. AZ Thomas is young and has flashed a bit, but he’s been very up and down. Dane Belton has played really well, but his contract is expiring.
Bottom line is, there’s not much here at all. And not only are they bad overall, they’re particularly bad on 3rd down as well as in the red zone, another major contributor to them losing games. One interception in the last 24 games tells it all, to be honest.
This entire side of the ball needs serious attention in the offseason. There are a lot of assets and there will be a lot of opportunities to address it, but right now there are very few reasons to feel good about where this defense is headed.
Similar to last year, I think it’s pretty much over for this unit. I would be very surprised if this unit finishes anything better than a bottom-5 unit by year’s end. The level of competition is about to increase, and they simply do not have the talent currently to compete.
Special Teams Is an Underrated Problem
Special teams deserves some attention here, too. This unit stinks. After finishing #1 in DVOA last year, this unit has quickly joined the bottom tier of the league. It continued yesterday with them giving up a kickoff return for a touchdown.
When you consistently lose close games, special teams has to be part of the conversation. It’s an underrated reason why this team has the record it does.
Braelon Allen Is Becoming the Future
And then there’s Braelon Allen.
I think it’s getting more and more difficult to ignore how good he’s turning into. He’s 22 years old and is already 4th in Rushing Yards Over Expected (+133), 1st in percentage of runs over expected (53.2%), and 7th in Yards Per Carry.
He’s also 11th in Pass Block Grade and 4th in true pass sets. He blocks well, too, as shown in this video:
Breece Hall has been pretty clearly replaced as the starter as far as I’m concerned. I think there’s still value in keeping him around as the primary pass-catching back and change-of-pace option. There’s a story you can sell yourself on there, especially with something like a 70-30 split favoring Allen.
But Braelon, to me, is beginning to look like the more talented back. He’s younger, exhibits far better vision, and has tremendous balance. I think he’s turning into a really good NFL running back, and he should be the future at the position.
Geno Makes Sense as a Short-Term Option
One other thing I’d like to see is Geno getting a 1-year extension prior to the end of the year, assuming he doesn’t turn into a total pumpkin. Unless he wants to play for a team like Pittsburgh or Minnesota, something like 1-year, $15 million should be fair for both sides.
Even when the Jets draft a QB, I think Geno should likely be the Week 1 starter in 2027. There’s no reason to rush a young quarterback into a situation right away, especially if you have a capable starter on the roster, which Geno appears to be.
I Think This Coaching Staff Is Gone
I was unsure a couple of weeks ago. I thought at 2-4, there was a chance the Jets could win these next two games and sit at 4-4 with a whole different sentiment. Now? I think that’s over. I think this coaching staff is gone.
They just lost two very winnable games. Games that they arguably should have won based on how they played for stretches. Aaron Glenn continued his trend yesterday of making negative game-time decisions, and it hurt the team from a probability standpoint.
When you’re losing very close games, you need to really look into why. Where are the high-leverage swings happening? We talked about some of it being a result of the red-zone offense, defense, and special teams. But some of it is simply coaching and clock management. We don’t need to beat a dead horse here.
With the young offensive talent already here, I don’t really see the point in giving him three more first-round picks to use with all the question marks surrounding him.
I’m Still Optimistic for the Future
And to be honest, I’m more optimistic now than I was prior to the year. I do think it’s appropriate to have some positive feelings about where they sit. I get that no Jets fan wants to hear it with how bad the record is once again, but I actually think there’s a pretty solid foundation offensively.
The offensive line is more or less solid. The young pass catchers appear to be very solid as well. Braelon Allen is very much a good NFL running back. And the best part is that these guys are all young and under contract.
The cap space is finally recovered. The dead money is over. They’re going to have more assets than everyone. Right now, it looks very likely that two of these picks will be top 10 and the third might also be very high up. There’s zero reason this team can’t improve drastically in 12 months with all the assets they have and the current core on offense. I’m not sure I said that once over the past decade.
The defense and coaching staff are obviously major questions, and it’s going to be highly dependent on who they draft, but I don’t think the entire situation is as bleak as the 2-6 record makes it seem.
I’m more optimistic now due to the positive performances of this offense and some of the younger players than I was. We’ll see if I’m right.
