Some years, when I reflect on this exercise, I feel pretty proud of myself.
Other times, like now, I look back and wonder why anyone lets me communicate to anyone about the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yes, it’s that time again for my yearly plunge into the crystal ball; my 10 bold Phillies predictions. But before we gander at what I’m going to get wrong this year, let’s take a look at how I screwed up the predictions this time last year.
- Bryce Harper leads the Phillies (and the NL) in home runs
- Zack Wheeler finally wins his Cy Young
- Jesus Luzardo finishes in the top 5 of Cy Young voting
- Phillies starters lead MLB in WAR
- Bryson Stott makes the All Star team
- Taijuan Walker makes at least 4 starts for the Phillies
- Phillies trade for Taylor Ward at the trade deadline
- John McMillon emerges as the Jeff Hoffman replacement
- Trea Turner scores 115+ runs
- Phillies win the World Series
Let’s get the good ones out of the way. Luzardo was close, finishing
in the top-7. Phils starters DID lead MLB in fWAR, by a LOT. And Walker made… 21 STARTS! With a 4.25 ERA!
I had some near misses. Turner was great atop the lineup, but scored 94 runs. Wheeler might have won the Cy Young if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but probably would have been a finalist with Cristopher Sanchez and Paul Skenes. Stott did not make the All Star team, but played like an All Star in the second half. And the Phils did trade for a right-handed outfielder, although it was Harrison Bader, not Taylor Ward.
The big whiffs? Harper most definitely did not lead the Phils (or the NL) in homers, no one has heard from John McMillon since becoming last spring’s wonderkid, and no, the Phillies most definitely did NOT win the World Series.
Win some, lose some. Let’s take another crack at it.
Zack Wheeler finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting
Since the start of the 2021 season, no pitcher in baseball has accumulated more fWAR than Wheeler’s 26.7. He has finished 2nd in Cy Young voting twice. He is attempting to return from a blood clot in his shoulder caused by thoracic outlet syndrome, and by all accounts down in Clearwater, things are looking really good and he appears to be on track to begin his season in the Phillies’ rotation starting in mid-April.
If Wheeler looks anything like he did for the vast majority of last year before he got hurt, he’ll absolutely be a top-five Cy Young candidate, even if he misses a few starts at the beginning of the season.
Ace-level Wheeler turns this rotation from pretty good, to the best in baseball.
This time, Cristopher Sanchez wins the Cy Young
Sanchez is poised to make 2026 a clone of his ‘25 season.
He’s probably baseball’s best left-handed pitcher not named Tarik Skubal right now, and although it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes in the NL Cy Young race, let’s just assume someone other than the Pirates star takes home baseball’s top pitching prize in ‘26. After finishing runner-up a season ago to Skenes, Sanchez is going to have a slightly better season and take home his first Cy Young.
Kyle Schwarber clears 50 homers again
Coming off an NL MVP runner-up campaign with 56 homers, Schwarber has spent this spring slugging bombs for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
The bat speed is still elite. He can hit left-handers. He’s in great shape. There’s no reason to doubt Schwarber’s ability to have another monster power season at the plate. I don’t think he gets to 56, but I say he pops 50+ homers again.
Bryce Harper finishes with a worse OPS than last year
Harper is obviously upset about Dave Dombrowski’s “not elite” comments last October, and has spent much of the winter and spring talking about it. He’s painted himself into an uncomfortable corner, though, talking so much about it that he almost has to be better than he last year to prove himself right and Dombrowski wrong.
Early spring results are mostly meaningless, but we can all recognize that if Harper had spent the spring and the WBC wailing on the ball, we’d all be very happy and excited that the Phils’ first baseman was going to back up his assertion that he is still an “elite” player. But it’s been a very quiet spring for Harper so far, and so the opposite must at least be considered.
I’m not sure Harper is going to be able to fix this narrative. I wish all my bold predictions could be positive, but I just don’t see Harper being a whole lot better than he was a season ago. I truly hope I’m wrong, but my bold prediction is that he finishes with an OPS lower than last year’s .844. Prove me wrong, please!
4 Phillies starters make the NL All Star team
Yes, that’s right, Aaron Nola as an All Star is a bold prediction.
I really like what I’ve seen from him so far, and his WBC start for Team Italy against Team Mexico, along with some encouraging starts in Clearwater, have me bullish on an “even year” Nola rebound. I think he will join Wheeler, Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as All Stars (although I’ll bet one won’t be able to pitch due to availability).
Justin Crawford gets more ROY votes than Andrew Painter
Thus far, I have been more impressed with Justin Crawford’s spring than Andrew Painter’s. Of course, it’s a very small sample size and spring results don’t mean much in the regular season. Both players are penciled in to break camp as regulars, with Crawford playing everyday in center field and Painter holding down the No. 5 spot in the rotation.
After an early extra-base hit barrage, Crawford is tied for 2nd (Bryson Stott) on the team in hits (8), but with just a .638 OPS. Nevertheless, he’s played very good defense in center, and only needs to be slightly more impactful with the bat to be a 3-win player. Painter’s early numbers looked good, and in his start on Friday, his 97 mph fastball and four-pitch mix was very effective until the third inning when his fastball flattened and got hit around.
I think Painter is going to struggle a bit more in his rookie season than Crawford, and it’s possible neither player gets much Rookie of the Year love, but at the moment, let’s give the edge to Crawford, who isn’t trying to rediscover himself as a pitcher after Tommy John surgery.
Jhoan Duran leads the NL in saves
The Phillies have not had a regular closer from the start of a season during this entire four-year run that started in 2022. In Duran, they now do. He has spent the spring learning a new type of splitter, one that acts as a bit of a changeup. Can you imagine another plus-pitch to off-set his splinker and 100+ mph fastball?
Yeah, I think he gets 45-50 saves to lead the NL.
Otto Kemp has more HRs than Adolis Garcia
I wrote about what Adolis Garcia needs to do to reverse the negative trends we’ve seen over the last two years, and I’m not optimistic he can do it. I’m also not as bullish on Otto Kemp as a “solution” to the Phillies’ outfield problems, either, but if I had to choose a bold outcome for the outfield, this would be my best guess.
I think Garcia is going to struggle. I think he’s going to lose playing time. I believe Kemp will hit reasonably well in the platoon with Brandon Marsh. So, let’s say Kemp gets 15 HRs for the Phillies this season, Garcia gets 13.
That’s pretty depressing, huh?
Alec Bohm & Bryson Stott combine for 35+ HRs
Last year, Stott hit 13 dingers. Bohm slugged 11. That’s 24, so I’m essentially predicting they more than double their combined total from last year.
Both are raking down in Clearwater, swinging for power and having great ABs. I wish I could say I was 100% confident these two former first round picks were going to have their long-awaited breakout seasons, but I am just not confident that’s ever going to happen.
That said, this is all about making bold predictions, and predicting these two players to combine for 35 or more blasts in 2026 is pretty darn bold. So, let’s go with it.
Trea Turner named MVP of Philly All Star Game
I’m not making a prediction on where the Phillies are going to finish this time around, at least not in this space. I honestly do not have a good sense of what to expect from this team that has been through so much over the last three years.
To celebrate the nation’s 250th birthday, the All Star Game is coming to Philadelphia. While I think the Phils will have four starting pitchers named to the All Star Game, I also believe they’ll get Duran, Schwarber and Turner on the team as well. And to celebrate the game being played at Citizens Bank Park for the first time, I will predict Trea will get a base hit in extra innings that brings home a walk-off win for the National League, earning him MVP honors as his city celebrates around him.
Hopefully, that won’t be the high point of the season!
