The injury bug struck again and Nelson is out. Who would you like to see be first in line to replace him?
James Attwood: Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt’s future is as a starter, whether that is as a #3 or as a #5, he’s still a starter for now. Pfaadt has also had some modest success at the MLB level, where the other candidates have not yet had the chance. Given that the team’s injury issues have gone critical, Pfaadt goes from mop-up duty in blowouts to mop-up duty in the rotation. They need a pitcher who can go 5-7 innings and they need him now.
samath: I think we’ll have seen Nelson’s spot in the rotation come
up by the time this publishes, so it’s kind of a moot point.
Makakilo: In the minors, Brandon Pfaadt had time to stretch out and make minor tweaks to his pitching. It will be exciting to see his progress, even if his first starts are short.
DBacksEurope: “Like” is a push. Despite the ERA he has, I’m pretty high on Ryne Nelson. He has been a good rotation arm the past few years and between all those multimillion dollar arms we’ve seen the past seasons, probably one of the most reliable though not spectacular. I think it is a hard loss. He might get back at the end of the season, but with Nelson gone, an important member of the team is gone and it might costs us wins. Who do I want to see? Right now Yilber Diaz is the one. The most logical option is Pfaadt though I think Pfaadt is a sunk cost. Let’s see what the young arms have to offer.
Ben: I would like to see Corbin Burnes replace him, but that’s obviously not happening. I would have guessed that Brandon Pfaadt would be in line to replace him, but he’s only up to around 50 pitches in his last start. The same goes for Mitch Bratt, the highest pitching prospect who could reasonably step up, but is also coming back from injury.
Soroka left Friday night’s game early (ultimate result unknown at time of question writing). If he misses time, who should be the second in line to take over a rotation spot?
James Attwood: Soroka is headed to the IL. It’s just a matter of how long he will be there. If it is going to be for more than two or three starts, then it will be time to promote Mitch Bratt or Kohl Drake. Drake has been getting shelled in Reno, but that is not necessarily indicative of his talent. At the same time, if he has low confidence from getting shelled, he may need some more work.
samath: Wasn’t the point of sending Pfaadt down to Reno to get him stretched out so he could start again? If that’s really not possible, bullpen games until he’s ready?
Makakilo: If he misses time, I hope that Diamondbacks have been developing an out-of-sight but very talented pitcher in the minors that they can call up.
DBacksEurope: I think Soroka will be fine, that is what he said and what I want to believe. If we lose him too, well, the Diamondbacks are doomed.
Ben: In the alternate world where Burnes is still available, I’d pick him. Instead, it looks like it will be Jose Cabrera, who has made just three starts with Reno, who will at least initially take Soroka’s start. Maybe the team’s plan is to use Yilber Diaz in some kind of piggyback situation with someone else?
Is there a point where you would believe that the Diamondbacks need to reevaluate how they train their players due to ongoing injury, or does it all just come down to bad luck?
James Attwood: I think there is probably an argument to be made that the team needs to make some adjustments when it comes to rehabilitating players. This is far from a new phenomenon for Arizona. With the excessive pressure on the front office to win this year, and the lacks of organizational depth across the board, it may be that some timetables have been pushed forward a bit more than they should have been. Some of that is on players trying to get back or push through. Some of that is on the team for allowing them to.
samath: Eh, pitchers get injured all the time, MLB-wide.
Makakilo: First, an unsurprising fact. Then let’s consider three top-level views on team injuries.
UNSURPRISING FACT: The Dodgers lead the Majors in days lost to the injured list. “The Dodgers, who have had the oldest average age of MLB hitters in that span [2024 to 2026], and the game’s biggest payroll, unsurprisingly led the league in days missed on the big-league IL.” Per the following linked article.
Some MLB organizations are more injury-prone than others. Is that bad luck or a system issue?
VIEW ONE. Injuries are correlated to team age. Two 2026 facts from SpoTrac back that up that view. FACT 1. The Diamondbacks’ team age of 29.3 years ranked as 9th oldest (SpoTrac) FACT 2. The Diamondbacks’ cumulative injury cash payroll of $25.8 Million ranked as the 10th highest in the Majors (SpoTrac). VIEW TWO. Consistency over time enhances the effectiveness of procedures to minimize injuries. Backing that up are the following facts.
FACT 1. From 2024 to 2026, the Cardinals had the least days lost to the injured list per this article.
Some MLB organizations are more injury-prone than others. Is that bad luck or a system issue?
FACT 2. Roster Resource shows that 8 of the 9 players in the Cardinals batting lineup were drafted by the Cardinals. My conclusion is that whatever they are doing to prevent injuries has been consistently done over many years.
VIEW THREE. My view is that in 2025, the Diamondbacks had an injury problem. It may be obvious, but I strongly suspect the same will be said about 2026. Supporting that view: In 2025, the Diamondbacks lost 11.9 WAR, which was the 6th highest in the Majors, per this link to a FanGraphs article. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-teams-have-suffered-the-most-from-injuries/
DBacksEurope: It is probably a case of bad luck but the problem is that there is no strong starting pitching in the pipeline unless we acquire it from elsewhere. That is the problem the Diamondbacks need to address.
Ben: If Mike Hazen and the entire coaching staff is fired at the end of the season – a definite possibility if the team misses the playoffs again – then I’m sure everything about the staff will be reevaluated. But outside of that extreme situation, I think it has more to do with bad luck than anything else. I understand that these are athletes at the height of their capabilities, but Jordan Lawlar’s run down first base that eventually resulted in an IL-worthy hamstring pull looked about as routine as one could be. He even jogged off the field with no support. Afterwards, Torey remarked that Lawlar’s body might have some uniqueness to its soft tissue. I don’t quite know how the training and conditioning staff could have done anything differently that would have prevented an injury on that play.
The Owners took another big swing and announced their desire to change the MLB Amateur Draft (LINK). Thoughts?
James Attwood: I can think of few suggestions coming from the owners or the Commissioner’s Office that would be worse for the game than this proposal. It’s almost like the owners are actively trying to tear everything down.
samath: The owners are very straightforwardly trying to exploit the mess at the top of MLBPA to their own advantage, aiming to take a greater slice of the economic pie themselves. They’re ramping up their ask in these lesser-publicized areas like the draft in the hopes that MLBPA doesn’t have its act together in time, can’t contest all of these fronts, and is forced to give in somewhere. Whatever wisdom there is in things like an international draft, it’s swamped by a clear attempt to stop paying as much to the players, particularly young superstars.
Makakilo: My concern is that athletes without academic talent or inclination, will be forced to struggle in college, where they have no chance of success.
DBacksEurope: Unless you blow up the arbitration process, every proposal is bollocks. Players need to earn money when they are at their best I.e. the early years. We don’t want to see players into well of their 40s just because they got their fat contract when they were already over their top. Players and clubs should make sure that players get paid when they deliver value for money. So, that proposal isn’t addressing the real issue.
Ben: It’s a bit of a mixed bag leaning towards a bad deal in my opinion. On the positive side, the owners’ proposal to institute an international draft is badly needed. There’s not only blatant corruption throughout the current system, but there’s also significant abuse of children that has caused irreparable harm to innumerable families and communities.
But that’s pretty much the only positive I see in it. Every other part of the proposal seems geared towards reducing labor costs and minimizing the opportunities for players to earn a megadeal. I think I’ve pretty definitively demonstrated that I land on the side of labor for most of these discussions and this proposal does little to change my stance.
