The hurdle that it often is adequately covering the Buffalo Bills, Thursday Night Football claimed this week’s intended Five Questions with Battle Red Blog (BRB). Since we were able to get through my half of the exchange in discussing the Bills, I didn’t want to let this content pass Buffalo Rumblings readers by completely.
So here now is what Scott Barzilla of Battle Red Blog wanted to know about the Buffalo Bills ahead of Week 12 with the Houston Texans. This content was supposed to run on BRB,
which instead I’m sharing here.
Following my responses, I’ve also shared the five questions I hoped to ask Scott about the Texans. This at least gives Rumblers a little peak into what we were focusing on from an opponent’s perspective. Scott was fantastic to connect with this week, but timing on my end just didn’t allow us to complete the task at hand. I encourage you to head over to BRB and give them some Rumblings love. We have one of, if not the best football communities on the internet, and BRB provides great articles, podcasts, and analysis that should reach more football fans.
I extend a fond thank you to Scott for taking the time to connect with me, and I look forward to seeing the next matchup through with him.
1) Josh Allen is the reigning MVP. How would you compare his 2025 season to his 2024 season?
Erratic; stifled; stilted; strained; harried; and frustrated. That’s been the case against some woebegone teams. Yet against stiff competition, Allen has risen to the challenge, often playing like the reigning NFL MVP. The results to this point of 2025 are partially Allen’s doing, but he’s had to operate too often with what I’ll term a neutered wide receivers group. General manager Brandon Beane and company made a decision last offseason to send a still very talented Stefon Diggs to your Texans. The team has been trying to remedy that move going on two seasons now. While Diggs suffered the season-ending injury with Houston, it’s clear that he’s far from done — just that he was so with One Bills Drive. That’s fine if there’s a viable plan. To this point, it’s to sell the fan base on the idea that “everybody eats.” It worked statistically in 2024, where before teams could lock in on Diggs as Allen’s go-to, now they had to account for everyone at any moment. Then 2025 hit, and suddenly wide receiver separation became a major issue, but not a new issue. It all just looks worse than folks remember.
Now fans are wondering if offensive coordinator Joe Brady is the issue, or if it’s Allen who too often doesn’t see the proper check or process through all his reads accordingly, the offensive line playing under the bar set in 2024, or the general manager for those free agents he chose to sign and of course the only significant addition made at wide receiver made in the NFL Draft since Diggs’ departure. That being Keon Coleman, who’s now making headlines for all the wrong reasons as a healthy, disciplinary scratch.
Without Josh Allen, the Bills might win seven games all season if they’re lucky, due mostly to the beast of a season running back James Cook the III is having. So while many see Allen’s game as flawed in 2025 (and it is in many ways), there’s just so much that he’s capable of doing where other quarterbacks simply look foolish that even those awful moments rarely prove detrimental. That said, this season has seen a shift in the types of interceptions Allen’s thrown, where he has multiple red zone turnovers that led to points. Prior to 2025, you could count on one hand the amount of negative, points-producing turnovers attributed to Allen; the same being true of those that led to Buffalo losing a game. This season, you can nearly count the same number of those opponent points producers.
Statistically, Allen is still just as incredible as he was in 2024 and before. He leads the NFL in total touchdowns, and he remains a massive X-factor while running with the football. A lot of people point to that loss against the Miami Dolphins and just don’t get how he could lay such an egg. It’s the NFL, and any outcome is on the table.
2) The Bills’ receiving core has come under some fire this season. Is the criticism fair? If so, what can they do to step up? If not, why do you think they get a bad wrap?
Beyond fair. Similar to how I discussed them earlier, this group just hasn’t cut it in 2025. There are a lot of fans and analysts crying for speed, but this is not a receivers unit devoid of speed. Keon Coleman just leads all those discussions, and brings the (faulty) 40-yard aggregate down.
This might come as a bit out of left field, but I have to wonder just how detrimental the decision was not to play starters in the preseason. The offense didn’t get an opportunity to gel or even discover/work out kinks in a mostly authentic game setting. What were they going to learn running the system with a bunch of guys who didn’t make the roster? It just feels like the preseason was handled poorly from that perspective, but I’m not an NFL head coach.
These guys are NFL players on a team’s roster for a reason: they have unique talents that rise above most others’ abilities. That said, it sure feels like the group needs to be coached and differently schemed. Week 11 was a promising step forward, but is it sustainable with guys who may not be featured on other team’s rosters?
3) The Bills’ defense has been up and down in recent seasons. What is the current state of the defense and can they hold the fort through a tight divisional race?
We could talk for 2,000 words alone about this defense. Much like the team in general this season, it’s a perfect personification of Jekyll & Hyde. The fatal flaw is the run defense, and it means that the Bills likely need to score close to or better than 4o points to have a clear path to victory.
The Bills have had far too many injuries at defensive tackle this season, and it’s caught up with them. The defense as a whole has been a M.A.S.H. unit, and plenty of those injuries have popped up in practice or pregame warmups. It’s calls to question the team’s strength and conditioning program, fair or not.
Can they hold the fort? They’ve already done so a few time. If we’re being truthful, Buffalo probably doesn’t win Week 1 against the Ravens without defensive tackle Ed Oliver forcing a fumble of running back Derrick Henry very late in action. Buffalo may have also lost its first game against Miami if not for a terrific defensive play by rookie defensive tackle Deone Walker to pressure quarterback Tua Tagovailoa into an ill-advised throw in the direction of linebacker Terrel Bernard.
Yet for all the individual efforts (and there are plenty more that include safety Cole Bishop among others), it’s too often that the defense wilts in the crunch this season. It’s most evident in the team’s three losses where things remained within striking distance into the fourth quarter only to get out of hand late.
4) The Patriots hold the current advantage in the AFC East. Do you think the Bills can catch them?
Can they? Absolutely. Will they? Again, that’s a matter of stacking wins. It’s likely a moot point if they lose against either the Texans or Pittsburgh Steelers in these next two games.
The first thing anyone hears about the Patriots this year is that quarterback Drake Maye is the second coming of Tom Brady. That’s a ridiculous statement in so many ways. The other? New England plays the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. Sure, it’s a fact based on combined records of their opponents. You know what else is true? The Bills play the third-easiest remaining schedule.
Have the Patriots peaked too early, or will they really sustain an undefeated streak that’s now nine games long? It’s a young team, so odds are they find a path to slipping up eventually. Teams lose games they shouldn’t all the time (Hello Bills-Dolphins/Falcons). Buffalo’s been here before, but they haven’t had a fight for the AFC East this late in a season in quite some time.
At the end of the day, I wouldn’t count Josh Allen out until it’s mathematically impossible. Even then, should Buffalo go on the road in the playoffs and meet up with New England, there’s a lot to like about the Bills’ chances against Mike Vrabel and a largely playoff-inexperienced Patriots roster.
5) FanDuel has the Bills as slight favorites on Thursday night. How do you see the game going? Are there any prop bets you feel comfortable recommending?
It is an interesting spread, simply because Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have never won NRG Stadium. I see a lot of that point spread being due to people failing to believe that Davis Mills can play the same brand of football as Allen. Look at Baker Mayfield, who has become a true franchise quarterback, yet struggled to keep pace with Allen.
For as awful as Buffalo’s run defense is — it’s far worse than stats can even properly explain — the defensive backfield is playing an elite brand of football right now. If the Texans manage to keep the clock running and the Bills’ offense off the field due to an eviscerating run attack, then there’s little reason to ask Mills to play match-set-point against Allen. But I know that Houston still likes to throw the ball a ton with Mills, so this could really go any way.
I actually see this game as a low-scoring affair. The Texans’ defense is legit at every level, while the Bills’ receivers fail to match well against most opponents. Now, Week 11 against the Buccaneers was five yards in the right direction — but with respect to a really good Tampa Bay defense, Houston is a different level of talented. With Buffalo’s current key cog in the passing game/deep threat Dalton Kincaid out again, it will fall almost exclusively on the receivers to make up the lost ground.
I tend to avoid giving score predictions, as a general practice. It’s just not a thing for me. This game is going to come down to who wants it more given what’s at stake. It’s arguable that Allen played his worst game in the NFL last year in Houston, yet Buffalo lost only due to a last-second field goal. To this day, I wonder if Diggs got in his head. If you watch the Bills’ Week 5 game against the Patriots, it’s easy to see similar things unfold. The common thread? Allen and Diggs being on opposing teams.
Can they finally get a W in NRG? Certainly. It’s going to require a dialed-in Josh Allen, someone capable of checking out of poor pass options to instead leverage Cook’s elite contributions.
I’m going to be fully candid here and tell you that there are zero prop bets I should be recommending to you or anyone investing money into gambling with FanDuel Sportsbook. I could see this game being low scoring and coming down to the final seconds, unless it’s true that the Bills’ loss to the woebegone Dolphins woke up the fire-breathing unicorn that is Josh Allen. So take the under at your own risk.
Here’s what we intended to chat about with my 5Qs for Scott:
1. Catch Bills fans up with the Texans: What makes Houston tick in 2025?
2. How has the passing offense stayed so locked-in with quarterback Davis Mills playing the last two games?
3. What’s behind Houston’s troubles running the football in 2025 — and do you see them staring down a get-right game?
4. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn wrecked Bills fans last season, hitting the most perfect soul-crushing boot at the exact wrong moment for Buffalo. Fairbairn didn’t kick last week, but he hasn’t missed from inside 50 yards this season. Do you see Fairbairn and Houston’s special teams playing a key role in Week 12?
5. What must the Bills accomplish vs. Texans’ defense and offense if they’re to come away with a victory against the Texans in Week 12?
