The New England Patriots’ rivalry with the New York Jets might have lost some of the must-watch character it briefly had more than a decade ago, but it still remains an intense one. More than that, though, it remains one that can have a big impact on the AFC East as a whole, especially this week.
A Patriots loss on Sunday might end up putting even more distance between them and the division lead. Meanwhile, a Jets loss would further question their status as a legitimate contender in the East.
What
outcome is more likely, though? Well, let’s just say our head-to-head comparison favors one team over the other.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Jets pass defense: The Jets are running an aggressive defense with a high blitz rate, but they are only a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of actually creating pressure and defensive success on a per-dropback basis. Against a Patriots passing offense that looked very good last week versus Las Vegas and will have its top wide receiver, A.J. Brown, back, putting uneven heat on Drake Maye is not a recipe for success. That doesn’t mean the Jets won’t be able to win their battles — rookie edge David Bailey is averaging a sack per game so far — but the overall consistency of performance, especially looking at the last two weeks, clearly favors the home team. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Jets pass offense: Geno Smith is an experienced and efficient quarterback, but that alone will not be enough on Sunday. For starters, two of his top weapons — wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and running back Breece Hall — will be out with injury. Meanwhile, the Patriots will have Christian Gonzalez back to take away whoever their defensive coaching staff deems worthy of that treatment. If that player is Garrett Wilson, who is leading New York in virtually every receiving statistic, Smith will need to find a way to keep the offense on track regardless. We are not sure he can do so consistently enough. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Jets run defense: TreVeyon Henderson is expected to play on Sunday, as is left tackle Will Campbell, which is good news for New England’s ground game. That said, we still believe that the visitors will have the edge in this particular matchup. Fact is, after all, that the Jets are the eighth-best defense in EPA per run, while the Patriots are fielding only the 23rd-best offense. Even if we look at just the last two weeks, they are only 19th, while the Jets are ninth. The Patriots might find some openings if their opponent decides to sell out against the pass or scramble play, but even so they have yet to show they can take advantage. | Edge: Jets
Patriots run defense vs. Jets rushing offense: If we look at this matchup solely through the lens of EPA per play, we see a 30th-ranked Patriots defense go up against a 20th-ranked Jets offense. Not exactly a marquee matchup, but one favoring the latter. However, New York being without Breece Hall and left guard Dylan Parham makes this a much more even matchup in our book. And if the Patriots can successfully turn this into a dropback game, thus putting the pressure on Smith moving the ball through the air, we like their chances even more. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
If we are looking at return and coverage statistics, as well as place kicking and punting, the Patriots and Jets are pretty much on par across the board. There is one notable exception, though, and it could prove advantageous for Jeremy Springer’s unit: New York’s punt coverage crew has allowed the fourth-highest average per return in the league through five games — a possible concern against former All-Pro Marcus Jones. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
Mike Vrabel’s coaching staff has been very good after some early-season hiccups. Coordinators Josh McDaniels and Zak Kuhr in particular have consistently put their respective units in positions to be successful, and the recent emergence of the team as a whole and some of its players individually is proof of that. New York’s staff, which underwent some significant changes over the offseason, is still finding its groove especially on the offensive side of the ball. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Patriots are listed as a touchdown favorite heading into this game, and we can see why: top-to-bottom and including the coaching aspect, they simply have looked better this season and particularly the last two weeks. Obviously, division games can go by their own rules, but anything but a New England win on Sunday would be a surprise and, frankly, a disappointment for the Patriots.
