The Cleveland Browns and their years-long saga with Deshaun Watson has brought up a lot of arguments citing the “sunk cost fallacy” as to why the Browns should stop considering their quarterback’s hefty contract when making decisions about their future.
The Green Bay Packers might already have a similar (albeit less impactful) situation on their hands with offensive guard Aaron Banks.
Last offseason, the Packers made some surprising free agent acquisitions, most notably with Banks, to whom they gave
a four-year, $77 million deal. That was a hefty price tag on an offensive guard who struggled with consistency during his time with the San Francisco 49ers, and a lot of those same issues popped up in his first season with the Packers.
According to Pro Football Focus, Banks allowed two sacks and 27 pressures in on 484 pass-blocking snaps last season. That’s not ideal for a player who is the NFL’s seventh-highest paid left guard by average annual salary.
For reference, here’s how the other highest-paid left guards fared in pass protection.
- Peter Skoronski ($25 million AAV): two sacks, 23 pressures (694 pass-blocking snaps)
- Tyler Smith ($24 million): three sacks, 26 pressures (700 snaps)
- Matthew Bergeron ($23.5 million): one sack, 28 pressures (519 snaps)
- Luke Goedeke ($22.5 million): zero sacks, 22 pressures (416 snaps)
- Landon Dickerson ($21 million): five sacks, 33 pressures (506 snaps)
- Quenton Nelson ($20 million): one sack, 15 pressures (637 snaps)
- Aaron Banks ($19.25 million): two sacks, 27 pressures (484 snaps)
- Joe Thuney ($17.5 million): zero sacks, 22 pressures (788 snaps)
- Zion Johnson ($16.5 million): five sacks, 29 pressures (708 snaps)
- David Edwards ($15.25 million): four sacks, 32 pressures (679 snaps)
Note that while some of these names have similar sack/pressure numbers to Banks, they also played significantly more snaps than the Packers iOL did last season. The only name who had similar struggles with a similar snap count was Landon Dickerson during a tumultuous offensive season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
The worry is that because of Banks’ large contract, the Packers might be eager to prove themselves right by trying to continue leaning on him as a full-time starter to justify the deal. But the Packers have other options to potentially replace a struggling Banks, most notably in fifth-round rookie Jager Burton, who has shown some legitimate flashes this preseason to potentially earn a starting job.
Other options are also on the tape, including Anthony Belton and Jacob Monk, although one of those three options will likely be slotting into the other guard spot opposite of Banks.
The good news is that the Packers already have a recent track record of not falling into the sunk-cost trap. Cornerback Nate Hobbs was Green Bay’s other splash free-agent signing last offseason, signing a four-year, $48 million deal. After a disappointing year, the Packers decided to cut ties with Hobbs and eat the dead cap money rather than trying to force a fit that wasn’t working.
There’s a chance the Packers could make a similar decision next offseason with Banks if he continues to disappoint. And as of right now, the signs aren’t looking good for Banks, who has missed a big portion of training camp while dealing withknee tendinitis.
While the Packers continue to support Banks, frustration has started to slip out with the coaching staff about their guard’s availability. Earlier in camp, head coach Matt LaFleur praised Burton and Monk for performing well in practices, but appeared frustrated when mentioning Banks’ availability.
Time will tell how the Packers handle the left guard spot, but if Banks is able to play and struggles early, his contract can’t be a part of the team’s decision on whether to play someone else.
