Ohio State spends this weekend on the couch, but the bye week is the perfect time to look ahead.
The Buckeyes are 6-1 and ranked No. 3 after beating Indiana, but they’ll play the rest of the season most likely without Julian Sayin.
Ryan Day said this week that Sayin is out indefinitely, and that Ohio State is planning as though he won’t be back this season. That means either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair, with Fahey the frontrunner, will lead the offense through five games that could decide Ohio State’s
playoff fate.
Here’s how I’d rank them, from easiest to hardest.
5. Northwestern (Nov. 14)
This is a game that could sneak up on people.
Northwestern is 5-1, ranked No. 24 and has Chip Kelly calling plays as their offensive coordinator. Aidan Chiles has been efficient, and the Wildcats have found ways to win close games. They also play at Oregon and host Iowa right before this one, so they’ll be battle tested.
But this game is in Columbus, which is why it lands at No. 5. Ohio State’s defense has held their last three opponents in check, and Northwestern doesn’t have the kind of explosive playmakers that have given the Buckeyes trouble in the past.
4. At Nebraska (Nov. 21)
Nebraska is quietly a pretty good team.
The Cornhuskers are 5-2, and both losses came by three points, 20-17 to Indiana and 17-14 at Oregon. They started 5-0 for the first time since 2016. They’ve lost to two of the Big Ten’s best teams by a combined six points, which tells you this team can hang with anyone.
The bigger factor is that this one is on the road. Lincoln in late November won’t be an easy place for a young quarterback to play. Still, by the time this game arrives, Ohio State’s quarterback should have three starts under his belt, and the Buckeyes’ defense should be able to control a game like this.
3. Oregon (Nov. 7)
On paper, Oregon looks like the most dangerous team left. The Ducks were picked second in the Big Ten preseason media poll and still have plenty of talent.
But they’re 4-3, unranked in the AP poll and haven’t looked like the same team that won the conference two years ago. They lost 21-10 to Illinois this weekend, and were missing virtually their entire wide receiver core due to injuries/arrests, plus starting quarterback Dante Moore.
This game is also at Ohio Stadium. The Ducks can beat anybody on the right day, and will likely be a lot healthier by the time this game rolls around, but I’d still rather face them at home than make the trip to Los Angeles with a freshman quarterback.
2. Michigan (Nov. 28)
Michigan is 4-3 and 1-3 in the Big Ten in Kyle Whittingham’s first season. On paper, that doesn’t scream second toughest game. But this is The Game, and nothing about it follows the normal rules.
Ohio State finally ended their four game losing streak to Michigan last season. Michigan will be desperate to get that back, and it doesn’t matter what either team’s record is when they kick off on the last Saturday in November.
Records go out the window, the defense gets nastier and every mistake gets magnified. For a freshman quarterback, it’ll be the most intense environment he’s ever played in, even at home.
The rivalry factor alone puts this above Oregon.
1. At USC (Oct. 31)
This might be a surprising pick, but I don’t think it’s close.
USC is 6-2 and has one of the best offenses in the Big Ten — although they just lost 24-7 on the road to Wisconsin, potentially looking ahead to the Buckeyes.
More importantly, look at the circumstances. This will likely be Fahey’s first career start, as a true freshman, across the country, at night on Halloween in the Coliseum. Ohio State hasn’t played at USC since 2008.
That’s about as tough a debut as you can draw up. Fahey hasn’t had a chance to settle in yet, and USC’s offense can put up points fast enough to make Ohio State play from behind. That’s the exact situation Ohio State wants to avoid with a young quarterback.
The Buckeyes opened as 6.5-point favorites, but I think this is the game most likely to go wrong for the Buckeyes.
What gets Ohio State into the playoff?
If Ohio State goes 4-1 the rest of the way and finishes 10-2, I think they get into the College Football Playoff without much drama.
The Buckeyes already have a top-five road win over the defending champions, and their only loss came on the road at Texas. The committee also knows Ohio State lost its quarterback mid-season, which should give them some cushion.
At 9-3, things get uncomfortable. It would depend on who the losses come against and how the rest of the country shakes out, but Ohio State would no longer control their own fate.
The good news is that the toughest test comes first. If Ohio State survives USC, the Buckeyes will have a battle tested quarterback, three of their final four games at home and a real chance to finish 11-1.
That’s why next Saturday matters so much for this team.
