The Cubs have 24 games remaining in the 2025 regular season.
It’s not jinxing things to say they are almost certainly going to be a postseason team. Their magic number to clinch a postseason berth — ANY postseason berth — is 16. That’s the combined number of Cubs wins and Reds losses that would keep the Cubs, at worst, in a wild-card spot.
Thus the Cubs could clinch a wild-card spot by going 16-8 in the 24 remaining games regardless of what the Reds do. That’s not impossible given that 17 of the 24 games are
against teams currently under .500. If there’s any time for the Cubs to make a run, now is that time.
To clinch the top wild-card spot and thus have a wild-card series at Wrigley Field, likely against the Padres, the magic number is 22. For that, the Cubs would likely need help — per Tankathon, the Padres have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the 30 teams. (The Cubs stand at fourth-easiest, tied with the Dodgers.)
Here are the remaining schedules for the wild-card contenders. Home games in boldface.
Cubs (14 home, 10 road)
Braves (2), Nationals (3), at Braves (3), Rays (3), at Pirates (3), at Reds (4), Mets (3), Cardinals (3)
The Cubs won’t play a team with a winning record until they face the Reds — and who knows, the Reds could be under .500 by then, see their schedule below.
Padres (15 home, 9 road)
Orioles (2), at Rockies (3), Reds (3), Rockies (4), at Mets (3), at White Sox (3), Brewers (3), Diamondbacks (3)
As noted above, this is a very easy schedule by most standards, particularly the seven games against the Rockies, though as the Cubs found out last weekend, the Rockies aren’t the pushover they were earlier this year.
The thing that might hurt the Padres is a brutal travel schedule. Beginning Thursday they travel from San Diego to Denver to San Diego to New York to Chicago to San Diego in an 18-day span, and they will play in all four time zones during that span.
The Padres trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West but as you can see, those teams don’t meet again.
Mets (9 home, 15 road)
at Tigers (2), at Reds (3), at Phillies (4), Rangers (3), Padres (3), Nationals (3), at Cubs (3), at Marlins (3)
The Mets have a much worse record on the road (29-37) than at home (45-27) so this road-heavy schedule could hurt them down the stretch. Also, of their 24 remaining games, 18 are against teams currently with winning records. That’s the fifth-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon.
Reds (12 home, 12 road)
Blue Jays (2), Mets (3), at Padres (3), at Athletics (3), at Cardinals (3), Cubs (4), Pirates (3), at Brewers (3)
The Reds also have a tough schedule (second-toughest per Tankathon), with 15 of their 24 remaining games against teams currently with winning records. They also have a difficult travel schedule — from Sept. 7 to 18 they will fly from Cincinnati to San Diego to Sacramento to St. Louis to Cincinnati. And they have lost four in a row and seven of their last eight.
It should be noted that the Giants, who swept the Cubs this week, have won eight of their last nine to move to the .500 mark and are now just a game behind the Reds. It’s unlikely they come back, just as it’s unlikely for the Reds. But the Giants are not completely done yet.
And just for grins, let’s do this:
Brewers (11 home, 12 road)
Phillies (2), at Pirates (3), at Rangers (3), Cardinals (3), Angels (3), at Cardinals (3), at Padres (3), Reds (3)
This schedule ranks exactly in the middle of the pack, per Tankathon: 15th. In a nine-day period from Sept. 18-26, the Brewers must travel from Milwaukee to St. Louis to San Diego to Milwaukee.
The Cubs trail by 5.5 games and their elimination number for the division title is 19. Teams have come back from deficits like this with fewer games to play. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Sure, and especially if the Cubs can take the next two games from the Braves and the Phillies can sweep the Brewers. After the Brewers defeated the Cubs 7-0 on Aug. 18, they had a nine-game lead in the NL Central. Since then the Cubs are 9-5 and the Brewers 6-9 and… well, let’s just say overcoming this deficit would be delicious. The Cubs own the tiebreaker.
As always, we await developments.
