The Colts Week 1 soared to victory in a dominant fashion, beating the Dolphins 33-8. Now they will face their fellow equestrian team in the Denver Broncos, who themselves are coming off of a win against the Titans that was more convincing than the 20-12 score would indicate. Colts fans have not forgotten the infamous 13-31 Loss to the Broncos that all but ended the 2024 Colts playoff aspirations late last season, nor do the Colts themselves. Vengeance, Redemption, and a chance to prove that the 2025
Colts are better equipped to enter the playoff race are all on the line in this early season matchup.
Bo Nix vs Cam Bynum
Bo Nix had one of the more porous starts to the NFL season among QBs Week 1, throwing for 2 INTs and losing a fumble while struggling to complete passes beyond 10 yards (3 for 9 with 1 TD to Cortland Sutton but both his INTs), and under pressure (2 for 7). Nix’s 4.4 Yards per Attempt were 2nd worst in the NFL Week 1 ahead of only his opposing QB Cam Ward. Nix performing so poorly against a Titans Defense that was far from a powerhouse in 2024 was shocking, and if the Colts Defense can do the same it would go a long way to a victory.
Enter Cam Bynum, a high IQ playmaker at Safety who is the lynchpin of new Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense. With Bynum at Safety (primarily Free Safety), Anarumo was successfully able to disguise his coverages in Week 1 and force hesitation and poor decision making in Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. Bynum himself was able to secure a deep interception in his Colts debut, albeit on an overthrow, but you know the saying with right place right time to make a play, and Bynum has a knack for making his own luck.
Bynum will be crucial in defending the few intermediate to deep shots Nix will attempt a game, and could not only disrupt those plays but take the ball away from the young passer. This will be crucial, as Nix loved throwing Go-route TDs to Sutton in his rookie year (most TDs off of that route in the NFL), and got his only score Week 1 off of that.
Expect Bynum to be a fair bit of shading over to the Sutton side of the field to protect against the big play, though Bynum also could shade over to the non-Xavien Howard side, as one of the Colts depth corners Mekhi Blackmon, Jonathan Edwards, or Chris Lammons activated off the practice squad will be starting Week 2 due to injuries to CB1 Charvarius Ward and top backup CB Jaylon Jones. Bynum’s job will be even more important in communicating the the depth corners their coverages and making sure that they know their duties, while also potentially aiding them over the top.
Patrick Surtain II vs Michael Pittman Jr. (and sometimes Alec Pierce)
The Broncos have perhaps the best Corner in the NFL suiting up for them, 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II. Surtain is known to shadow the top receiving threat of an opposing offense, and often give that opponent a nightmare of a game with his size, speed, fluidity, and technical prowess. The Colts offense tends to spread the ball around between 3 high volume pass catchers in particular: strong possession outside WR Michael Pittman Jr., shifty slot WR Josh Downs, and now rookie TE Tyler Warren (9 targets Week 1); with other playmakers getting involved as well situationally.
With Pittman tying Warren in Week 1 targets and presenting a big size problem, expect the 6’2 Surtain to shadow him for most of the night to try to shut him down and force Daniel Jones to look elsewhere. Surtain will also likely cover Alec Pierce in more obvious passing downs to try to shutdown the vertical threat WR and force Jones to go to underneath targets instead.
The advice I would give to Jones: if Surtain is covering a guy, don’t throw that way. Surtain has one of the lowest completion % allowed amongst top NFL CBs, is usually among the top in pass deflection rate, and is an opportunistic playmaker. He is best avoided at all cost. In Week 1 Cam Ward at least followed that advice for his rookie debut, as Surtain was targeted only once in his 34 coverage snaps and didn’t allow a completion. Expect Jones to follow suit as well.
Tyler Warren vs Broncos LBs/Ss
With Surtain making targeting an outside target much less appealing, the interior of the Broncos defense should be where the passing focus will be. Downs will be covered by either McMillan or rookie Jahdae Barron, both of whom are talented nickels but Downs could find some space to operate with his route running polish. But Tyler Warren looked like the top target that Daniel Jones will look to go to, especially if he needs a big body to bail him out when under pressure and looking to pass more downfield.
Warren had a fantastic debut Week 1, with 7 of 9 targets caught for 76 yards and a 3rd and 1 carry for 3 yards. He also was a dominant blocker, grading out as an elite level blocker as well.
Warren showed off good separation, powerful and reliable hands (2 for 4 in contested situations, though one could have been called for Defensive Pass Interference in the endzone), and a fun amount of yards after the catch as well. He will be tasked with facing off against a litany of Broncos defenders in the middle of the field, several of whom are strong coverage players as well.
In 2024 the Broncos allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to Tight Ends, and did well in EPA/attempt to Tight Ends. They also added some new defenders with Safety Talanoa Hufanga and Linebacker Dre Greenlaw added from the San Francisco 49ers Defense to pair with Linebackers Justin Strnad and Alex Singleton as well as Safety Brandon Jones. Greenlaw is ruled out for the game, but expect the Broncos to throw a bunch of different bodies at Warren to try to slow him down.
Warren’s unique blend of size, physicality, speed, and reliability is a tough matchup for the Broncos to be able to contain, as even with good coverage he can make plays on the ball. Expect Warren to be targeted heavily in this game, and be and outlet for Daniel Jones when things get dicey.
Colts LBs and Kenny Moore II vs Broncos RBs out of the backfield
Bo Nix threw a higher percentage of his throws to RBs and players lined up in the backfield than any other QB in 2024 (21.3% per Next Gen Stats), and in Week 1 he targeted RBs 9 times. Nix loves getting his backs involved in the passing game, so limiting their effectiveness will be crucial in containing the Broncos offense.
Zaire Franklin and Joe Batchie will primarily be responsible for this task. Batchie as the Weakside backer had a decent coverage game Week 1, limiting his 2 targeted snaps to just 12 yards and not being targeted much in coverage with some good drops and pursuits from the middle of the field and attacking the flats. Franklin however was heavily targeted (5 times, but only 3 were caught due to poor accuracy), for 34 yards and 3 first downs. The Dolphins primarily targeted Zaire with WRs though, as Lou Anarumo’s disguised looks helped CB Kenny Moore II take on RB passing containment duties too.
At the nickel, Moore II was able to limit the Dolphins’ abilities to target the flats for most of the night. Kenny did allow the 1 TD of the night to Achane on an underneath catch and run late in the 4th, but by then the game was well out of hand. If Moore II can help the Colts LBs in containing the Broncos RBs of JK Dobbins, Tyler Badie, and rookie RJ Harvey, it will severely limit the Broncos pass game.
Broncos OL vs Colts DL
The final 2 key matchups of the game: the trench battles. The Broncos boasted one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL in 2024, especially in pass protection.
Per Zoltan Buday of Pro Football Focus, the Broncos offense line had a case for the best pass protection unit in the NFL in 2024:
Denver’s offensive line finished with a 91.4 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating, which led the NFL. They were the only offensive line to allow fewer than 100 pressures on the season, surrendering 98 — including 14 sacks — on 649 snaps.
The Broncos picked right where they left off with a dominant performance vs the Titans Week 1 up front.
Nix wasn’t exactly getting the ball out quick to avoid pressure either, with his 2.85 Time to Throw ranking 18th in the NFL Week 1. By contrast, the Colts Week 1 QB opponent Tua has routinely been amongst the quickest triggers in the NFL (2.3 in 2024 = 1st, 2.33 in 2023 = 1st, 2.53 in 2022 = 5th) and was slowed to a 2.66 Time to throw in Week 1 (8th quickest release) thanks to the Colts defense often taking away his first read.
Nix maneuvers a pocket well and had the 2nd highest percentage of dropbacks end outside of the pocket in 2024, showing his ability to escape even muddied pockets and try to extend plays either through the air or by scrambling. Getting past his offensive line and then being able to bring Nix down is not an easy feat, and Lou Anarumo has to either contain him or make him uncomfortable during his field reading to force mistakes.
The Colts will have an extra hurdle to overcome in Week 2 with Laiatu Latu questionable for the game with a hamstring injury. Latu provided solid pressure as a starting DE and was able to show off his versatility in being able to drop back and get a pick on Tua in the season opener, leading to Latu finishing 2nd among all DEs in PFF grade for the week. It will be up to Samson Ebukam (4 pressures Week 1) and DeForest Buckner (~14% pass rush win rate despite being double teamed every pass snap vs Dolphins) to get after Nix, with help from Grover Stewart, Kwity Paye, Tyquan Lewis, Neville Gallimore, and potentially rookie JT Tuimoloau making his Colts debut.
Colts OL vs Broncos Pass Rush Plan
Daniel Jones was able to enjoy a lot of comfortable pockets in his first game with the Colts, as he was the 4th least pressured QB of the week and had plenty of time to go through his progressions on most of his dropbacks. The Colts duo of Tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith were worth every penny, stopping the highly efficient Edge rotation of Jaelan Phillips, Chop Robinson, and Bradley Chubb; while star Guard Quenton Nelson alongside 2nd year linemen Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves ensured Jones routinely had a pocket to step into. The Dolphins also blitzed on a league high 51.5% of plays vs the Colts, and Tight Ends Tyler Warren and Andrew Ogletree provided valuable chips and pass pro snaps to help out while Jonathan Taylor did his best pickup job against the blitz in years in the backfield. The entire unit deserves praise.
Now they face another blitz heavy Defense (Broncos were 4th in Blitz Rate in 2024), but with even more dangerous rushers. Star Edge Rusher Nik Bonitto was a terror against the Titans, consistently beating their new $82 millon Tackle Dan Moore Jr. in route to a big game pressuring 1st overall pick Cam Ward.
The Colts Tackle Duo will have their hands full with Bonitto (though can expect some Tight End help at times too), but the Broncos also have other pass rush threats like veteran Defensive Lineman Zach Allen who can attack multiple gaps along the line and fellow Edge Jonathan Cooper as well (10.5 sacks in 2024, 8.5 in 2023). With those 3 and Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph’s willingness to attack with blitzers, the pass rush threat could come from anywhere. It is up to the Colts pass pro unit to step up against this bigger test in Week 2 once again.
Daniel Jones is as of now untested vs Pressure this season, as even when he was pressured in Week 1, he often opted to check down or scramble. He will likely be pressured more in Week 2, and will likely need to prove his field reading downfield when under pressure in order to win.
Should Jones be able to avoid making crucial turnovers when under pressure especially (got away with 1 dropped pick Week 1) and avoid the Broncos onslaught of pressure, the Colts will have a strong chance to upset the Broncos and enter head to Nashville next week still undefeated.
