Why has Kentucky football felt stuck in close games? How can the offense continue to play so slowly, yet the defense seems to give up back-breaking plays at the worst times? Kentucky had the ball for nearly 5 more minutes against Ole Miss and lost. While there are many factors, one specific statistical category paints a devastatingly clear picture of the team’s core problem.
And it’s surprisingly not just the QB.
In modern football, games are won and lost on explosive plays (plays of 20+ yards). The
ability to create them on offense and prevent them on defense is the clearest indicator of a team’s potential. It is here, in this critical area, that Kentucky is failing, and failing spectacularly.
A symmetrical disaster on offense and defense
According to national rankings compiled by SEC Mike, the numbers are grim. An explosive play is defined as any play that gains 20 or more yards. Out of 136 FBS teams, Kentucky’s national rank in creating and preventing these plays is alarming.
Explosive Plays on Offense: #115 Explosive Plays Allowed on Defense: #115
The symmetry is damning. The Wildcats are in the bottom 15 percent of the entire country at both creating big plays and preventing them. So, not only are they failing to keep offenses in check, they can’t get the big plays needed to really play the ball control style Stoops needs. You can’t just drive 14 plays down the field every time; you need some heavy hitters at times. This is the statistical recipe for long, grinding drives that stall out on offense and quick, demoralizing scores allowed by the defense.
While teams like Ole Miss and Arkansas rank in the top 3 nationally for offensive explosiveness, Kentucky is in the same tier as Mississippi State. But the Bulldogs are now 2-0 and looking like a much better team than the Cats at this point.
This fundamental flaw is arguably the biggest hurdle holding the program back this year. The upcoming game against Eastern Michigan presents a prime opportunity to fix this. The Eagles’ defense has surrendered over 1,000 yards in just two games to Texas State and LIU.
If the Wildcats can’t generate explosive plays this Saturday, the concerns for the rest of the season will grow even louder. And calls for Bush Hamdan to be fired will grow even louder. Kentucky needed a get-right game, they got it, but now they have to execute. Can they get back on track heading into the bye week?
Drew Holbrook is an avid Kentucky fan who has been covering the Cats for over 10 years. In his free time, he spends time with his family, and watching Premier League soccer. Psalm 121:7-8. #UpTheAlbion
