The wait’s almost over, Bills Mafia! In a couple days’ time, the Buffalo Bills will be on the field at NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans. It’s a tall task for the Bills as the road team in Week 1, made more daunting by the fact that quarterback Josh Allen has never won a game (four tries) in the Texans’ home stadium.
Overall, Houston leads the all-time series 8-5, dating back to the first matchup in October of 2003. The Texans have six straight home wins over the Bills in that timeframe, which
includes a Wild Card playoff win during the 2019 NFL postseason run.
Will Buffalo buck history’s trend and find a way to win a game in Houston? You can bet Allen will do all he can to end the suffering in H-Town. It won’t be easy, with a new-but-familiar head coach in Joe Brady and a first-time NFL defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard.
How will all of that affect Buffalo this Sunday? Here are a few predictions I’m willing to bet bear fruit for Josh Allen and company in Week 1. If you feel like getting in on the action with FanDuel Sportsbook, there are lots of ways to take your game-day experience to a new level while cheering on the Buffalo Bills!
Bills cover spread (-1.5 | O/U 44.5) for 1st win at NRG
There are a few reasons to avoid this line, and most won’t need to look any further than the oddity that NFL Week 1 often is league-wide. There’s also the fact that the Bills have never won in NRG Stadium, with Josh Allen holding onto four such losses. Add in a pair of young first-time lead coaches for Buffalo working their first game, and it feels like there might be too much working against them this weekend.
Yet some of those same reasons are why it might makes sense to take these odds. While most will say these should be flipped in Houston’s favor, at some point history has to change course. In many ways, Buffalo was a known entity to much of the league in prior seasons, thanks to the nine-season tenure of prior head coach Sean McDermott. It’s true that the NFL has also seen Brady’s work as the team’s previous offensive coordinator, but it was under the leadership of McDermott.
Will Brady operate a different type of system as the new leader? He’s brought in Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator, who’s also comes from the Sean Payton coaching tree. Together, and with Brady still calling plays, look for Buffalo’s offense to utilize certain principles Payton has made famous in his career — but with a twist perhaps the Texans haven’t yet seen.
Add in what’s sure to be a highly motivated Allen and we might see the Bills finally claim a W in Houston. If you’re looking to wager on the O/U of 44.5 (Bills-specific total of O/U 23.5), consider the volatility of the first week, and that every game has equal potential to be a blowout or low-scoring defensive battle.
Josh Allen scores 2+TDs (+900)
Book it. A motivated Josh Allen is dangerous for the Bills’ opponents. There may be no better game to begin a season if the goal is to have Allen locked in from the start. He wants a win in NRG like little else. To accomplish that, Buffalo will need plenty of end zone production from Allen.
I expect Brady to get Allen in a rhythm off the bat, which could play into an afternoon that sees him throwing at least two touchdowns, and perhaps running for another score. In fact, if things go according to plan, Allen could meaningfully flirt with scoring three-plus touchdowns (+5500) Sunday afternoon.
Getting off on the right foot in Week 1 means letting Allen take control of things. This is the way.
James Cook III gets 100+ yards from scrimmage
If you’ve read this far, you might be wondering if I’ve even taken a second to consider the immense talent all over the Texans’ defense. I have. But it’s Week 1 and this is a new season. James Cook is currently -114 at FanDuel O/U 74.5 rushing yards. Cook can get most of that total with one cut to the end zone.
At some point, Brady will lean into the running game in an attempt to smash home a proper reminder about who led the league in rushing for 2025. Interestingly, Cook is also -114 (at publishing) to finish O/U 19.5 receiving yards. I say he finishes over that total, perhaps north of 30 yards on the day.
Parallels have been drawn between Cook and Alvin Kamara for good reason. Cook came out of college as a premiere dual-threat player, and I expect Brady to better unleash Cook in that role this season. Cook at -105 as an anytime touchdown scorer also feels like a solid bet; while his -165 odds to lead the game in rushing yards feels similarly likely to happen.
Those are just a few quick takes, but there are plenty of more bold predictions to make. We really don’t know what to expect out of Leonhard’s defense yet, so that leaves room for a lot of guessing about who claims the first sack in his system, and what an aggressive scheme looks like toward turning the ball over.
What are you willing to predict happens during Bills-Texans in Week 1?
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