An early game of the year contender is approaching us here in Week 5, as the San Francisco 49ers are traveling to Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West showdown.
The 49ers have been off to a great start, going 4-0 with wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, and Denver Broncos. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 3-1, with wins over the New England Patriots, Cardinals, and Los Angeles Chargers, but they lost to the Washington Commanders on the road in Week
3.
Faithful, take 49ers game day wherever you go!
Stay connected to the action and share every reaction with fellow 49ers fans on the SB Nation app.
- Join the live game-day chat
- Browse with fewer ads
- Seamlessly jump between communities
- Enjoy faster commenting and posting
Download the SB Nation app on iOS or Android.
Both teams have been playing at a high level lately. The 49ers have the league’s best offense, and Brock Purdy is a clear MVP contender. The Seahawks are fourth in EPA allowed per play, and they’ve been strong against the pass and the run.
This is shaping up to be a key early-season game for both teams and could play into the division race late in the season. Let’s get into our three predictions for Sunday.
Last Week
- 49ers get off to a fast start
- Turnovers on both sides
- 49ers target middle of field
Last week was a much different game for the 49ers. I thought they could start fast, given their first three weeks and how much Denver struggled in the first halves of their first three games.
Well, the 49ers offense could only conjure three points in a grind-out game in the first half, but the defense also held the Broncos to three points through 30 minutes.
I also thought there could be turnovers on both sides with the opportunistic defenses. I noted how inconsistent Bo Nix had been to start the year, and his conservative play continued in Week 4. The 49ers did force a turnover, but it came on special teams and ended up being a big turning point.
With Denver’s linebackers struggling to start the year, that felt like a matchup Kyle Shanahan would look to exploit, especially with the cornerbacks on the outside. Brock Purdy saw most of his success between the numbers, completing 11 of 16 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. It was a ton of quick throws, as Purdy averaged a 2.35-second time to throw when kept clean (22 of his 30 dropbacks).
Now, let’s move on to this week.
It’s a day for the 49ers linebackers
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw have been quite good this season, with Warner looking like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. But this game feels like it really could be a day for the 49ers linebackers.
The Seahawks want to establish the run, and they’re going to try to do so behind their offensive line. They’ve got the sixth-highest rush rate so far, even though their EPA per rush ranks 26th in the NFL and their rush success rate ranks 21st.
The 49ers will hopefully get Mykel Williams back, but this feels like a day where the 49ers linebackers will have to be playmakers. They could also be key for Raheem Morris’s blitz packages to make Sam Darnold uncomfortable and get the ball out quickly.
San Francisco is 31st in rushing success rate allowed. This game has a similar feel to last weekend’s as a slower-paced contest that could drag out into a physical slugfest. That puts even more responsibility on Warner and Greenlaw to produce. So far, that duo has 49 tackles and 17 defensive stops, according to PFF.
Their fumble-forcing ability could also be a big factor in a game where a turnover could make the difference.
49ers will have to rely on banged-up Mike Evans
Without Kyle Juszczyk, the 49ers may be forced to go into lighter packages with more 11 personnel. Mike Macdonald’s defense already is adept at getting pressure, and they’ll be looking to get the ball out of Brock Purdy’s hands quickly.
An issue against the Broncos last week was that the 49ers’ banged-up receiver core could not get separation, outside of Mike Evans. It feels like a similar script against Seattle’s secondary this weekend. Evans was clearly lingering last week, and is highly unlikely to look 100 percent on Sunday.
But if the 49ers are to find some consistency on offense, they’ll need to keep funneling him the ball and finding ways to keep him fresh enough to make plays. Otherwise, it’ll be up to Brock Purdy to make magic out of a hat.
The under comes true
Currently, the total on this game sits at 45.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook. As I mentioned above, this game feels very similar to last weekend’s contest against the Rams. Both teams want to run the ball. The Seahawks and 49ers are sixth and seventh, respectively in rush rate this season.
However, both teams haven’t been very successful running the ball or creating explosives on the ground. They also face quality opposing defenses that have done a terrific job of limiting explosive plays. This feels like a time-of-possession battle where both teams will try to run behind their strong offensive lines, leading to a lower-scoring game.
I think both defensive play-callers will have a pressure plan up their sleeves to force the quarterbacks into tough situations, and see the under play out on Sunday.
