Somehow we’re here. Despite a season of ups and downs and more losses than wins, the Carolina Panthers find themselves hosting a playoff game. It just so happens that it’s against the Los Angeles Rams, the team the Panthers defeated at Bank of America Stadium about a month ago in what was arguably the most surprising result in the NFL all season.
The Rams do seem a little less of a juggernaut this time around. They came into the first meeting on a six game win streak in which they throttled most of their
opposition. This time, they look more human. They lost two in a row before ending their season with a win that required a comeback over the Arizona Cardinals. One of those losses was at the hands of the Falcons and is one of the reasons the Panthers are here at all. Their offense is still as explosive as ever. Their defense is showing some cracks though.
The Rams had one of the best defenses throughout the season, but they allowed their opponents to average 6.4 yards per play over the last three weeks of the season. Only the Ravens, Cowboys, and Dolphins were worse. That’s despite the last two offenses they faced being known not-good offenses in the Kirk Cousins led Falcons and Jacoby Brissett led Cardinals. They were gashed on the ground, allowing 6.4 yards per carry in those three games. That sets up nicely for what the Panthers need to do to pull off another upset. And spoiler alert, it’s the same stuff they needed to do the first time around.
- Pound the rock, but do it successfully. There are two reasons for this. One, the Rams’ offense is significantly more potent than the Panthers’. The more possessions this game goes, the more likely it is that the Rams pull away because the Panthers simply can’t keep up. That means the Panthers need to keep the clock running as much as possible to keep the total number of possessions low. Two, the Rams are a whole lot more susceptible to getting beaten on the ground than they are through the air right now. Like I said above, they have gotten run all over the last few weeks, while their pass rush and pass defense have been as good as ever. The Panthers need to hit the Rams with a heavy dose of Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, preferably in that order. Hubbard has been the much better back for like a month now, and he was decidedly the better of the two in the first meeting with the Rams. Unfortunately neither back could get anything going last week, and the Rams won’t be as forgiving if the same holds true on Saturday.
- Bryce Young needs to hit his high leverage throws. The Panthers have somehow gotten on this roll where it seems like every 4th and short from outside of the red zone ends up turning into a long play that often ends in a touchdown. We saw it last week with the deep ball from Young to Tetairoa McMillan on a 40 yard pass on 4th and 8 that set up the Panthers’ second touchdown of the evening. We saw it twice in Panthers vs Rams part 1. It seems like Dave Canales and Brad Idzik have settled on their ideal approach being to trust the ground game as much as possible and then turn to Bryce when absolutely necessary. It’s been working, and it’ll have to continue to work. We’ll probably need to see at least a couple long touchdowns, though it’d be nice if the Panthers didn’t wait until fourth down to find them.
- Be aggressive on fourth down. This plays into both of the first two points above. The Panthers need to stay on the field as much as possible, which means avoiding kicking the ball back to the Rams unless absolutely necessary. It’s also going to take more touchdowns than field goals to win this game. Fourth down has been a money down for this team, and it’s good that they’ve built so much confidence in themselves and in Bryce Young in particular in those situations. They’re going to be vital for any chance at postseason success.
