WILL THE AZTECS TAKE THE FOOT OFF THE GAS NOW THAT THEY ARE BOWL ELIGIBLE OR WILL THEY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE?
The Aztecs are considerable favorites against a struggling Cowboys team. Expect the Aztecs to
keep the conference championship in sight and play an aggressive gameplan.
GAME INFO:
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Date/Time: Saturday, November 1, 4:00 (Pacific Time)
Television:
CBSSNStreaming:
Radio: San Diego Sports 760
Betting Line: The Aztecs (6-1, 3-0 MWC) head into the game against the Cowboys as strong 9.5 point favorites. The over/under is 42.5 points indicating a defensive focus. The Cowboys are averaging 25 points a game in their four conference matchups. The score indicator looks to project a 26-17 Aztec win. ESPN analytics are projecting a 79.3% outright win for San Diego State. The Aztecs defense is holding conference foes to 11.3 points per game. In all likelihood, the Aztecs defense should contain Wyoming’s offense and likely see an under on the betting line. The Aztecs are bowl eligible, but don’t expect them to set on their laurels. Wyoming is two wins short of being bowl eligible with four games remaining. An assured win against Nevada, but a win is needed against either the Aztecs, Fresno State or Hawaii. The Cowboys and Aztecs have met 39 previous times with the Aztecs leading 20-19. They also own a current three game winning streak against the Pokes. San Diego State moves off to the Pac-12 next season while Wyoming remains in the Mountain West Conference. There are no future plans to continue playing at this time.
THE OPPOSITION: WYOMING COWBOYS
Second year head coach Jay Sawvel brings a 3-9 record from last season into this season where he has already exceeded with a 4-4 mark, 2-2 in conference play. They have been all over the board with their season. They started well with wins over Akron and Northern Iowa, then lost to Utah, Colorado and UNLV before they facilitated a 4th quarter comeback win against San Jose State. This was followed by a close loss to Air force and last week a 28-0 shellacking against a hapless Colorado State team. The Cowboys are led by quarterback Kaden Anderson who has thrown for 1,634 yards on 146/245 passing. He has 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has a 59.6% completion percentage. On the ground, they are led by Texas freshman Samuel Harris who has carried 76 times for 430 yards and a score. Sam Scott, a 6’2” senior from Nebraska, has added an additional 346 yards and two scores. The Cowboys are happy to ground and pound the ball, much like the Aztecs. Through the air, the Cowboys are led by sophomore Chris Durr Jr. who has 398 yards receiving and four scores. Supporting him is Jaylen Sargent who has another 226 yards on 18 receptions. The Cowboys feature John Guyllenborg at tight end as well as former quarterback Evan Svoboda. Look for the Cowboys to use their wide-outs in jet sweeps or reverses. Also anticipate running backs to get into the pass routes, as backs have caught 27 balls. The Cowboys try to get the ball into the hands of their various playmakers.
They are deep on the offensive line, having returned four starters from last year’s squad. The team plays tough, hard football. The identity of the team is firmly locked with their defense. They are deep and experienced and, like the Aztecs, look to the defense to carry the team. On the defensive line, they have two dominant players leading the way. Defensive end Tyce Westland is a potential all-league performer. He has accumulated 35 tackles and two sacks so far this season. At nose tackle is Ben Florentine, who has 5 sacks to go along with 22 tackles. At tackle is Jayden Williams, who offers a compliment against Westland. The linebackers will be new and untested. They are anchored by two redshirts from last season, Evan Eller and Gary Rutherford. Eller is shining with 46 tackles and two sacks along with an interception. Transfer Brayden Johnson is the team’s leading tackler with 48 tackles and two interceptions including a 65 yard pick six against San Jose State. If there’s an area with little experience it is in the secondary. Ian Bell is the only returner, but has seen limited activity. At the other corner is Tyrese Boss who has 33 tackles and three pass breakups. Safeties include Desman Hearns , Malique Singleton, Justin Tayulor and Andrew Johnson. Special teams highlights around Erik Sandvik who has made all 21 of his point after as well as being ⅚ on field goals. Bart Edmiston handles the punting and had a 50.2 yard average last week against Colorado State on six kicks.
The Aztecs showing offensive fireworks to compliment their traditionally tough defense. Priority one was bowl eligibility. Next priority is to be in the conference championship game.
The Aztecs have stretched their win streak to five games making them arguably the hottest team in the Mountain West and one of the top teams on the west coast, all in the matter of one season. With the win at Fresno State, it looks like the top contenders will be Boise State, San Diego State and UNLV. The Rebels look like they can run the table with a favorable schedule ahead of them. Boise State has four remaining games including a November 15 matchup against the Aztecs at Snapdragon. Peaking at the time they are is optimum. Each position category is firing on appropriate cylinders, all working to make the Aztecs a much better team than most people predicted. One note of concern was the loss of wide receiver Jacob Bostick to a knee injury. He will undergo surgery and miss the remainder of the season. He is the Aztecs third-leading receiver with 11 catches and 157 yards and three touchdowns. This follows season ending injuries the previous two seasons. Jordan Napier and Donovan Brown lead the way for the Aztecs through the air. A push is on for the San Diego State student body to attend this game and get a sell-out at Snapdragon. Most games are nearly half full and everyone involved would like to see fans show up for Homecoming against Wyoming to see all the Aztecs have to offer this season. Two weeks after this, they will return home to take on Boise State in a must win, must have game. A large crowd will be needed to counter a very good travelling Boise State fan base.
What will be the outcome of the game?
This game is set up to be a battle of defenses. Wyoming has one of the nation’s least productive scoring offenses, averaging 21 points a game, good for 111th place nationally. The major issue is red-zone scoring. They have scored on only 79% of trips inside the 20-yard line. The defense averages 19.8 points given up, good for 32nd in the country. Cracking the red-zone will be key for the team that wins this game. The Aztecs and Cowboys have a history of close games. Ten of the past 16 games have been decided by five points of less.. Whoever has the ball last may need to resort to their field goal kicker to lock away the win. Expect the Aztecs to show up as they have all year with line control and linebackers making tackles. The secondary continues to shine, with playmakers highlighting the stat sheets. Chris Johnson, Dalesean Staley, Dwayne McDougle, Eric Butler and Bryce Phillips all give opposing quarterbacks fits with their strong, quick and aggressive play. There’s no reason to think the Aztecs will have trouble with a mediocre Cowboys offense. I expect Wyoming to punt more than five times and turn the ball over twice on turnovers and once on downs. The Aztec offense will be steady and workmanlike, trying to sustain drives and keep the offense on the field. Expect the Aztecs to wear down the Cowboys defense and control the game. A score of 27-24 might be a realistic expectation.
Around the Mountain West Conference
Boise State has come back from a slow start to lead the conference. They are at home against Fresno State. The Bulldogs might play spoiler, but they do not seem to have the talent level needed to pull off the win, especially being 17.5 point underdogs. Expect the Broncos to cover with their high octane offense finding their momentum. UNLV is also home taking on an exciting New Mexico squad. The Lobos are very capable at pulling the upset against the Rebels, who enter the game at a 5.5 point favorite. The over/under is 61.5 points, with many pundits expecting alot of scoring. This could be the one upset, which would effectively knock UNLV out of the conference championship picture. Air force is home against Army. Everyone knows what to expect in this game: run, run and more run, although the Falcons have found they can throw when they need to. Quarterback Liam Szarka has tossed for over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. Army does not have this luxury. Expect the Falcons to pull away a close game. The final game features an evening game in San Jose with Hawaii travelling to the mainland to take on the Spartans. Hawaii at 6-2 is already bowl eligible and riding the hot hand of quarterback Micah Alejado who has 1,757 yards passing, with 12 touchdowns and a 65.6% completion percentage. He has been susceptible to injury, but capable backup Luke Weaver is ready to step in. The Spartans counter with conference passing leader Walker Eget with 2,149 yards passing. This is in seven games, as the 2-5 Spartans are in a must win game. Leading receiver Danny Scudero, who has 56 receptions and 870 yards and 8 scores has been fighting injuries, but with a week off, might be ready and healthy to play. I’m picking the Spartans in another game they win in the fourth quarter. Utah State, Colorado State and Nevada all have bye’s this weekend. All games are on Saturday with New Mexico/UNLV overlapping with Fresno State and Boise State. New Mexico and San Jose State both will need to run the table. San Jose has only San Diego and Fresno remaining, of note teams. New Mexico has the Rebels and Aztecs to end the season. Boise State will need to lose a game, and even so, will probably wind up in the conference championship game. One more week of results and the picture might begin to eliminate teams. Nevada, Air Force, Colorado State are definitely out. San Jose needs to win out. Utah State has UNLV, Fresno and Boise State remaining, a tough road even for them. UNLV looks good if they remain undefeated. A lot of game pieces moving around this board each week. While the coaches play multi-level chess, pundits and writers have to settle for checkers, moving pieces one space at a time, maneuvering through the win, loss scenarios to come to the top two positions. It seems all roads run through Boise State at this time. A win by the Aztecs in two weeks would nearly solidify a conference championship position. But first, it’s Cowboys and Warriors before Broncos. The Aztecs have shown they have the depth to take this team into the post season. Keep the pedal to the metal and keep accelerating.
