The Portland Trail Blazers are about to play one of their most decisive games of the season, facing the Los Angeles Clippers tonight with a prime spot in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament on the line. Two of the four teams that enter the Western Conference side of the tournament will go on to the 2026 NBA Playoffs. Two others will be slotted into the NBA Draft Lottery instead.
With all those options open, a familiar question is starting to arise among Blazers fans, typified by this submission to the
Blazer’s Edge Mailbag:
Dave,
Don’t you think it’d be better for the Blazers to get a spot in a stacked lottery class than get booted in the first round of the playoffs? It’s been nothing but talk about making the playoffs for the last few weeks, but I don’t see anything but embarrassing losses ahead if they make it. Meanwhile here’s a chance at a true star or a diamond in the rough to actually help in coming years in the draft. What’s your take?
Will
My initial reaction to this question and its cousins was, “This, again? Can’t we get beyond this already?” But no, we can’t. The Blazers themselves have put us in this position. They hold a 40-40 record, right down the middle. Are they a playoffs team? Are they a lottery team? It depends on your vantage point and maybe how they performed that night.
The best response to this question is that we’ll know the answer when the Blazers SHOW us the answer. Until then, we’re knee-deep in theoretical debates again.
My gut feeling about this is going to depend on the day you ask me.
Right now, the Blazers absolutely need to WIN THIS GAME TONIGHT against the Clippers, earning the best shot possible to get to the postseason and the best chance of success there. (Here’s the rundown if you need it.) If they don’t, that shows you everything you need to know about them as a team this year. Backing into the Play-In, let alone the Playoffs, isn’t a luxury mid-level teams can afford. Making it “because someone has to” is a mini-echo of what they experienced in the mid-2010’s: getting knocked aside by the Golden State Warriors in the postseason nearly every year, not because they were truly the second-best team to the Dynasty but because somebody was going to. Except this is at a lower level and much less significant.
Assuming Portland wins tonight and takes the 8th-place position in the tournament, it’s also important for them to win that first game in the 7-8 matchup, drawing a first-round series against the San Antonio Spurs instead of the Oklahoma City Thunder. The odds of beating the Lottery Darling Spurs are tiny, but at least that’s a series. Getting crushed by the Thunder in a hopeless matchup isn’t really an education, it’s a morale-killer.
So…IF the Blazers win tonight and IF they advance from the first game of the Play-In, I’d say that experience will be better for them than the miniscule odds of jumping to the Top 4 in the lottery this year. Unless lightning strikes big, they’d only be losing 1-2 places in the actual draft order and they’d be getting practice preparing for—and in a couple cases winning—important games. That’s good stuff.
If the Blazers lose their way into the tournament or lose a game there, I’d say that taking the lottery pick and going with it would be marginally better. The gap isn’t demonstrable. I wouldn’t be crushed if they advance. I just think it’d be the same up-again, down-again pattern they’ve been showing all season. At this point, who cares? We already know they’re 40-40. They’ve shown all that already. Why do we need to play this out to the bitter end before pronouncing it?
In other words, Portland has one more chance to buck the trend this year. It starts right now and continues through the end of the Play-In. If they’re going to be something different than confusing and mediocre, this is the last, and only, time to prove it. As long as that chance is open, it’s better for them and the franchise if they take it and succeed. If they don’t succeed, going halfway isn’t going to help anything but the marketing pitch. Just go home and retool for next year.
A first-round pick owed to the Chicago Bulls complicates matters somewhat. The Blazers are still on the hook for their first non-lottery pick to Chicago, the aftermath of a long-ago trade for Larry Nance, Jr. Basically it looks like this:
- If Portland makes the playoffs this year, their pick goes to Chicago. The cost: they won’t have a first-round rookie this year to further their growth. The benefit: they clear the obligation, uncomplicating further trades and potential pick swaps on the horizon which are far more significant.
- If Portland misses the playoffs this year, they keep their 2026 first-round pick. The benefit is obvious. The cost is that this Chicago obligation doesn’t go away until 2028. The Blazers have one more year to make the playoffs and dispense of it before the clock strikes zero, leaving them an icky choice between not making the playoffs and losing a potentially-good pick swap with the Bucks in ‘28.
Right now, though, these trade matters are speculative. The real, tangible task in front of Portland is to win the Clippers game, then as many games after as they can manage, and let everything else take care of itself. If they can’t do that, take the lottery pick, run with it, and let’s see what happens next year.
What do you all think? Share your opinions in the comments section below!
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