We’re approaching the point in the season where the Buffalo Bills, like every NFL team, are settling in to where they’ll be for the duration of the year. That’s not to say perfectly consistent, but well-enough
known to have an idea of what to expect in each game. I say approaching because there are still teams that are all over the map.
Charts and Stats
I use these plus (+) and minus (-) charts a ton and usually after four or five games there’s a decent amount of meaning starting to shake up. For example, here’s the Bills’:
I think this mostly makes sense to Bills Mafia. The offense is firing pretty well (though imperfectly) and still averaging more than a touchdown more than typical for the league this season. Pretty much every metric on that side of the ball is doing very well.
On defense, it might come as a shock to some that the Bills are average for the most part, not lousy. For many (like me), I understand that they’re average and my dismay is because I want good to great. It’s also no shock that the passing game looks incredible while the run game looks terrible. Heck, we even all know that these two things are related.
Let’s check in on the Falcons.
From this data it looks like the Falcons are good at getting yards on offense, but struggle to convert them to points with a massive issue in the red zone. The interception rate suggests either a good offensive line, mobility from Michael Penix Jr. or a little of both.
On defense, they look really good on this chart. They’re a tiny bit prone to giving up rushing yards on a per-play basis, and they’ve so far given up a couple more fourth-down conversions than might be expected. Still, overall this looks really solid.
I believe at this point I have a reputation for preferring metrics that measure per drive. But for these two teams those averages bear out similarly, so there’s no reason to regurgitate the same arguments. There’s one more graphic I’d like to share though with everyone as we prepare for the Falcons, courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Now do you see what I mean? Which Falcons team will the Buffalo Bills be playing for Monday Night Football?
Let’s toss out Week 1 results, which are often wacky, and focus on the other three games. The Minnesota Vikings’ data isn’t supportive of an offensive juggernaut, but even with that six-point performance they’re trending a bit above average. Atlanta’s defense had four turnovers and six sacks. I don’t want to face that. Making this even more wild is that the game was close nearly the entire way, with nothing but field goals until the Falcons finally scored a touchdown with under three-and-a-half minutes to go in the fourth quarter. So it’s not like an early fluke or two put Atlanta up and Minnesota felt forced to abandon their game. This version of the team sounds scary.
The Carolina Panthers’ stats show an average defense. That includes this shutout performance, which is a huge outlier. The Panthers’ offense has been up and down but never as “up” as it was against Atlanta. If this team takes the field against Buffalo, Bills fans will be able to relax pretty early in the contest.
But wait, there’s more! Against the Washington Commanders the Falcons fought hard against a team whose stats are suggestive of a scrappy unit somewhere in the middle of the league — and they came out with a win. This game makes Atlanta come across as somewhere between the two extremes in the prior weeks. Does that worry me? No more than any other game where I assume a loss is possible but feel Buffalo and Josh Allen should just be themselves and things will likely turn out in their favor.
What does this all mean? It’s no secret I’m a lover of martial arts and have dabbled in various techniques over the years. I’m going to paraphrase a Japanese sword-fighting idiom. “The most dangerous opponent is the one who has never taken a single lesson.”
Wait. What the heck does that mean here? For many martial arts, techniques become routine with combatants often learning the same things. Think of the Inigo vs. Westley fight in The Princess Bride. They recognize the techniques the other is using due to tells and that allows them to counter each other.
The phrase above is not literal, the actual idea is to be wary of the unknown or unpredictable. If I’m fighting someone who knows their Agrippa, I can surmise a defensive contest with certain techniques emphasized. If I don’t recognize the style, I might choose rock when scissors was appropriate. In a sword fight one wrong move could be it.
That’s not true in football and I think the Bills can weather the storm of a little early chaos if they have to. The Bills should be favored but the chaos factor (and a bye week before) shouldn’t be ignored.
