We’ve reached the point where I feel like I’m part of the problem. Not as far as the on the field product of course. What is happening there belongs to this team and this front office. But I feel like a very small part of some of your fandom. Right now I feel about like I told you that it was okay to cross the street and you were hit by a car while crossing the street. For what little it’s worth, I’m blindsided too.
I’ve used the story of Lucy moving the football so many times in the past. But I think
almost always, it was a story about an individual game. I don’t think I’ve ever felt a whole season was Lucy moving the football. A few days ago, I was reminded for the first time of the 2021 Cubs. But even there, as I said it, I thought it was just a shadow of a memory. Even when that season was going good, it wasn’t going as good as this season was when it was going good.
It feels completely in possible that the 2o-3 stretch that is literally the best stretch of Cubs baseball any of us have ever experienced was literally fools gold. Even as I type it, it’s impossible to comprehend. The gold standard of recent Cub teams, the 2016 team, had a stretch of nine losses in 10 games as part of a 5-15 stretch. So there is precedent for a good Cub team going through this. But at this point, we are further back than square one. Whereas that team had clear championship aspirations and all kinds of good will built up, this one has used up all of its currency.
I’m not one really for histrionics or hyperbole. Obviously, there are more than 100 games left in this season. If the season ended right now, this team would hold the last wild card spot. They are obviously very much alive for that pursuit. I still think that this team likely ends up there. But, I am 100 percent a realist. I would not have entertained a world in which this team was a seller at the deadline this year and I’m seeing that as a very real possibility right now. I knew that the injuries to the pitching staff had completely undermined what this front office was trying to do. But I thought there was enough depth to survive it, even if it diminished the upside for this team.
It is no longer out of the question that this team is a seller. Stunning. This team has now lost seven games in row in which the Fangraphs Cub schedule win probability showed the Cubs favored to win. That by itself is staggering. They are headed on a road trip now where the initial impression is that they lose five of seven. Edward Cabrera is lost to them for this road trip. Losing five or more games doesn’t seem insane. If that happens, this team comes home out of the Wild Card position. I’m not sure it can perpetuate the consistent winning baseball to overcome a scrum to land in one of those Wild Card positions at this point.
I seriously can’t remember a quicker rise and fall in the years of my baseball fandom. I could draw some comparisons to the Bears teams of the late 80’s. But this is just flabbergasting. Suddenly, I hope that in a few weeks I look back and laugh about the last Sunday in May when I jumped ship prematurely. How did we get here?
Three Positives:
- Michael Busch had a single, a two-run homer and drew a walk.
- Pedro Ramirez got his first big league start and marked it with a double, an RBI, a run scored and even drew a walk.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong had three walks and a sacrifice fly. He drove in one and scored another.
Game 53,May 24: Astros 8, Cubs 5 (29-24)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Carson Kelly (.130). 2-4, R
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.111). 0-1, 3 BB, SF, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.064). 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Shōta Imanaga (-.520). 6 IP, 26 BF, 7 H, BB, 7 ER, 6 K, HBP (L 4-5)
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.118). 0-4
- Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.094). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: The Cubs were leading by one when Jeremy Peña singled with the bases loaded and two outs in the fifth. Two runs scored and the Astros would go on to score five. (.253)
Cubs Play of the Game: Pedro Ramirez batted with runners on the corners, the Cubs down one in the second with one out. He doubled and a run scored to tie the game, on the way to three runs for the Cubs. (.129)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 52 Winner: Colin Rea received 66 of 90 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +17
- Michael Conforto/Nico Hoerner +12
- Trent Thornton +7.5
- Shōta Imanaga +7
- Ryan Rolison -8
- Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -11
- Seiya Suzuki -22.5
Current Win Pace: 88.64 wins
Up Next: The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh for four games, starting with a Memorial Day afternoon game. The Pirates won Sunday and are 27-26. Ben Brown (1-2, 2.09, 38.2 IP) has started two of the last three games that the Cubs have won. That despite the fact that he lost to the Brewers in his start, allowing three runs in five innings. He battled in that one and has looked great as a starter. No pressure, but this team really needs Ben to step up in this spot.
The opposition is 27-year-old Carmen Mlodzinski (4-3, 3.96, 50 IP). The competitive balance pick of the Pirates in the 2020 draft (30th overall) out of South Carolina has won his last two starts, beating the Cardinals and Rockies. He’s had three very good starts in a row after three rough ones over the last two weeks of April and first week of May. Back on April 10, he held the Cubs scoreless over 5.1 innings in Chicago.
It doesn’t get much better after this. Find a way. Stop the skid.
