Welcome to the 2026-27 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today, we continue the series with one of the heros of the 2026 postseason.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Jake Bauers and he was born on October 6, 1995, which was the very day that the Mo Vaughn and John Valentin-led Red Sox were swept out of the playoffs by the juggernaut Cleveland Indians. Does that mean anything? Does Craig
Breslow need to consult an astrologist before offering Bauers a contract? Would signing him open up some kind of wormhole underneath the plate at Fenway Park that would allow passage directly between the Charles and the River Styx? Because, if so, maybe we can just say “pass” right now.
Is he any good?
If you’re one of those Scottish footy fans who saw a baseball game for the first in your life back in June, then you may well think that Jake Bauers is one of the best baseball players on the planet. He was the best hitter on the best team in the world this year, combining power and patience in the heart of the Brewers lineup.
In October, he broke containment and became one of the stars of the postseason, winning the NLCS MVP and doing so not necessarily with his power bat (he only hit one homer in the four-game sweep), but on the strength of his plate discipline. With 2 outs and 2 on in the bottom of the 3rd of game 2, as the Brewers trailed the Dodgers 2-1, it was Bauers who worked a 12-pitch walk against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It was the longest at-bat of Yamamoto’s career and it visibly tired the Dodgers ace out, leading to Christian Yelich’s subsequent go-ahead single and an early hook for Yamamoto. It was the turning point of the series, and if Bauers didn’t necessarily earn MVP honors on the back of that walk alone, he sealed it the next game when he worked an 11-pitch at-bat against Blake Snell, ending this one not with a walk but a go-ahead 2-run bomb.
But — as we heard many, many times during the playoffs — Bauers was an unlikely hero for the Brewers. Two years before, after posting a career bWAR of -1.9 over parts of 7 seasons, he had decided to give up baseball for good. Then his wife got pregnant and, unable to return to her job as a public school teacher, Bauers decided to return to life in the minors for one reason only: to get health insurance. (And, yes, this is one of those stories that corporate media tried to paint as inspiring, when all it really does is demonstrate one of the many ways in which American society is fucked.)
But something clicked late in 2025 for Bauers. After spending most of the season as a bench player and showing no signs of life (he was slashing just .188/.314/.338 at the beginning of September 2025) Bauers says he decided to completely stop thinking at the plate, while also slightly adjusting his stance and moving back in the box. He subsequently hit .360/.458/.560 in September, then exploded the following year.
Tl;dr, just give me the 2026 stats.
144 G, .266/.389/.484, 140 OPS+, 26 HR, 156 K, 94 BB
Why would he be a good fit for the Sox?
Bauers would have led the 2026 Red Sox in OBP and walks, while finishing just a touch behind Willson Contreras in home runs, slugging, and OPS+. Stick his bat in the lineup and suddenly the Sox are lengthening innings and hitting more long balls — the two things they couldn’t do against the Yankees in the playoffs.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Sox?
Well, let’s start with the fact that he almost retired two years ago, because the big question about Bauers is: is his transformation for real? Many people — including many of the analytically-inclined ilk — think it is. That’s because Bauers spent years as one of those players who put up big exit velocity numbers that didn’t translate into in-game power. If he could just make the right tweak to his swing, so the thinking went, he could turn into a real home run threat.
That type of thinking led to him getting chance after chance from a lot of really smart teams: the Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Yankees, and, of course the Brewers, who finally reaped the rewards of that patience. But let’s get real here: Bauers is 31-years-0ld and now has a career bWAR of just 2.0. Do you really buy that by simply “not thinking at the plate” he turned himself from a quad-A guy to an All-Star over night? And even if he did figure things out, well, he’s still 31-years-old. He is in the midst of his physical decline, and how much will the inevitable losses in bat speed and vision impact his game?
There’s also the issue of his fit on the Red Sox. Bauers is a first baseman and not a very good one, meaning he would likely be signed to be the full-time DH in Boston. He’s also a lefty, and while he does a pretty good job of spraying the ball to all fields, meaning he should be able to learn how to use the Monster, it’s quite possible that his power numbers would take a hit playing in Fenway.
What would it take to get him?
Because of his almost complete lack of a track record, it’s really hard to predict what Bauers will get on the open market. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs sees him getting nothing more than a 2-year deal for $19 million per year. Keith Law at The Athletic, on the other hand, thinks he’ll land a 4-year deal for closer to $25 million per year. Add in the volatility of the lockout and it’s anyone’s guess.
Smash or Pass?
The Red Sox already have a lot of high variance hitters in the projected 2027 lineup. Outside of Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu, I don’t feel all that confident in anyone in the lineup, really. Is Ceddanne Rafaela still getting better or did we just see his career year? Was Curtis Mead’s strong half of a season for real last season? Can Roman Anthony stay healthy? Is Adley Rutschman the all-star he was with the Orioles or the sub-.700 OPS guy he was with the Sox? What will Franklin Arias do?
The last thing I want the Sox to do is add yet another question mark to the lineup. And with Seiya Suzuki sitting out there with a better track record and more defensive value, I’d much rather give him the extra dough than take a chance on Bauers. Pass.
