Michigan once again didn’t turn in a clean performance on Saturday, defeating Rutgers by a 28-21 final score despite being favored by more than two touchdowns. As such, Michigan found itself dropping two spots in the latest edition of ESPN and Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, now sitting at No. 29.
For those of you who might be new to SP+, it’s an advanced metric that takes into account a team’s offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiencies. It combines all three metrics into one uniform metric that predicts
how many points a given team would defeat (or lose to) the “average” college football team by on a neutral field.
In other words, it’s a metric designed to look at how “good” teams really are at different aspects of the game rather than ranking them purely on their resumes.
Michigan’s rating is 11.5 after Week 9, meaning that it would beat an “average” college football team by 11.5 points. The Wolverines flipped the script a bit against Rutgers, with their defense having something of a letdown while the offense looked a bit better. Still, SP+ has Michigan’s offense as the No. 87-ranked nationally and the defense as the No. 4-ranked nationally.
The Wolverines still have four games left on their schedule this season, with three of their opponents — Oregon, UCLA, and Ohio State — all ranked higher. That means that Michigan would be predicted to finish the regular season at 6-6.
Looking ahead to next week, Michigan will square off against a 2-6 Michigan State team in the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Michigan will be going for its fifth straight victory over its in-state rival, which ranks as the No. 85 team in SP+ with a rating of -3.1. That means that the Wolverines are predicted to win by about two touchdowns and will get the advantage of playing on their home field as well.
We’ll see how things pan out when the teams take the field at 7:30 p.m. at the Big House on Saturday.
