Before the Week 6 game against the Detroit Lions, all but one of our panelists called for the Kansas City Chiefs to emerge victorious. As a group, we expected the Chiefs to win 32-28 — a prediction that
had 22 points of error from Kansas City’s 31-17 win. Our readers were less confident. 42% of them thought Detroit would win.
In Week 7, the Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to
FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points.Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I’ve been terrible picking these games this year, so me being very confident in the Chiefs this week might be a bad sign — but I don’t see how Kansas City loses this one.
The Raiders are not a good football team. On offense, it starts with their poor offensive line. They can’t run block or pass protect. They’re constantly in third-and-long situations with wide receivers who can’t win one-on-one.
On defense, outside of Maxx Crosby, they don’t have a single high-impact starter. They’re playing a bunch of low-end free agents at every position. With how Kansas City’s offense is rolling, nothing Crosby does should derail them — even though he’s a fantastic player. There are too many holes elsewhere.
I expect an easy Chiefs win.
Chiefs 34, Raiders 20
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
You know me — I’m always antsy about divisional games. But this one doesn’t feel that way. I think the Chiefs’ defensive line will generate pressure, and the secondary can grab an interception or two. The offense is continuing to gel, and I see Rashee Rice making a couple of big plays on a limited snap count.
Kansas City should win this game comfortably — but as the old saying goes, the score will be a lot closer than the game indicated.
Chiefs 29, Raiders 20
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
Though their records are close, these teams are clearly trending in opposite directions. Kansas City appears to be improving each week, while Las Vegas continues to struggle for consistency.
On paper, this should be a game Kansas City controls. Still, divisional games often play tighter than expected, and the long-standing rivalry can create some unpredictable moments. Even so, I expect the Chiefs’ defense to make a statement. Geno Smith has already thrown 10 interceptions this season — and I predict he’ll add two more on Sunday.
With Rashee Rice returning, much of the focus will be on the passing game, but this feels like a prime opportunity for the rushing attack to finally break loose. Expect Kansas City to dominate on both sides of the ball, forcing turnovers and establishing rhythm early.
Chiefs 28, Raiders 13
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
This would typically be a letdown spot for Kansas City against a struggling Raiders team, but I don’t see that being the case this time.
The main reason? Rashee Rice is back. His ability alone will give the offense a major boost, but just having his energy in the building lifts the entire team.
As long as the Chiefs don’t allow Maxx Crosby to wreck the game, this offense should move the ball at will. On the other side, the game plan is simple: sell out to stop Ashton Jeanty — especially with the Raiders missing Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Force them into third-and-long, then create opportunities to get after Geno Smith and cause turnovers.
Chiefs 41, Raiders 17
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
The Chiefs shouldn’t play with their food this weekend. The Raiders are a team heading in the wrong direction, and with Kansas City’s upcoming schedule, it would be wise to put them away quickly.
The Raiders’ defense has been middle-of-the-pack this season in most categories, and the Chiefs will have to contain Maxx Crosby. Still, this is the most explosive Kansas City offense we’ve seen since 2022 — and possibly one of the best of the Mahomes era.
The return of Rashee Rice should propel the offense into another gear and finally give fans a glimpse of what could become the NFL’s best attack.
Defensively, the Chiefs need to harass Geno Smith early and take the ball away, forcing Las Vegas into predictable passing downs. That would neutralize Ashton Jeanty and make a struggling offense even more one-dimensional.
Chiefs 34, Raiders 17
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
If you’re looking past this game, I don’t blame you — I just hope the Chiefs aren’t. As bad as the Raiders have looked, they still have a competent coach, and they’ve had this game circled on their calendar all year. This is Las Vegas’ Super Bowl, so Kansas City can’t show up unprepared.
To beat the Raiders, you have to do two things: stop the run and stop Maxx Crosby. Brock Bowers is a problem, but I don’t trust Geno Smith to get him the ball consistently. Outside of those three players, there isn’t much that should scare the Chiefs.
This should be a good opportunity to ease Rashee Rice back into rhythm and get him comfortable again before next week’s matchup with the Washington Commanders.
Chiefs 35, Raiders 10
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
Normally, I’d worry about this being a trap game, but the Chiefs are coming off a huge win and have the emotional boost of Rashee Rice’s return in front of a raucous Arrowhead crowd. I think the offense will keep rolling against a Raiders squad that has allowed 40 or more points in two of its last four games.
The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t always been dominant this season, but Steve Spagnuolo thrives on predictability. With tight end Brock Bowers likely out, the Raiders will look to funnel their offense through Ashton Jeanty — even though they rank last in the NFL at -0.20 expected points added (EPA) per rush play.
Divisional games can be weird, but I’m not overthinking this one.
Chiefs 34, Raiders 20
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
It feels like “Raiders Week” has been unusually quiet. The circumstances are familiar — the Raiders are 2-4 and don’t feel like much of a threat. They have some talented young players like Maxx Crosby, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty, but their potential is buried under the organization’s inconsistency.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have weathered their early-season turbulence and are finding their stride again as contenders. On paper, this looks like a blowout. After last week’s domination of a better Lions team — and with Rashee Rice returning — Kansas City should be in control.
Still, divisional games can be unpredictable. So I’ll pick the Chiefs to win — but not by a huge margin.
Chiefs 30, Raiders 24
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 33-18.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 2 | Maurice Elston | 4 | 2 | 0.6667 | 21.7 |
| 2 | 1 | Jared Sapp | 4 | 2 | 0.6667 | 23.0 |
| 3 | 6 | John Dixon | 3 | 3 | 0.5000 | 22.7 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 3 | 3 | 0.5000 | 23.0 |
| 5 | 5 | Rocky Magaña | 3 | 3 | 0.5000 | 24.0 |
| 6 | 8 | Mark Gunnels | 3 | 3 | 0.5000 | 25.3 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 3 | 3 | 0.5000 | 26.7 |
| 8 | 3 | Nate Christensen | 2 | 4 | 0.3333 | 23.3 |
In Week 6, Maurice Elston’s call for a 27-20 Kansas City win was the best pick any of our panelists turned in, showing just 12 points of error. John Dixon’s 31-24 prediction was right behind. It missed by 14 total points.
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
