Horned Frogs Team Sheet
- NET Rank: 45 (↑1)
- KenPom Rank: 49 (↑1)
- BPI: 49 (↑4)
- KPI: 50 (↑1)
- Strength of Schedule: 50 (-)
- Wins Above Bubble Rank: 45 (↓1)
Bracket Projections:
Note: all rankings are per NET unless otherwise noted
- Lunardi: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #35 Auburn Tigers in Dayton, OH
- Palm: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #47 VCU Rams in Dayton, OH
- Haslam: Last Team In
- Torvik: Last Four In, 75.5% in Tournament, average seed 10.4
- INCCSTATS: 71% in Tournament, average seed 9.6
- BracketMatrix: Last Four In, average seed 10.9
Around the Bubble
Impact Games of the Weekend
- #36 Texas Longhorns (↑4) defeats #43 Texas A&M Aggies (↓1) – The rivalry showdown belongs to the Longhorns on the hardcourt just as it does on the gridiron as UT went into College Station and left with a big time Bubble win. The Aggies entered the game better positioned in the at-large race but Texas stole that advantage on the road and the teams are now tied in the SEC standings with two games remaining. Each plays a challenging game vs. a true Tournament-caliber team before closing the season with a fringe SEC squad. Each must win at least one to feel comfortably on the right side of the Bubble.
- #65 Stanford Cardinal (↑9) defeats #35 SMU Mustangs (↓4) – The Ponies are in a free fall as its ACC California road trip results in consecutive road losses, landing brutal blows to its resume. SMU has a tough game against Miami Hurricanes on Wednesday where a home loss could really send the Mustangs near the cut-line. Stanford on the flipside continues to stave off elimination, winning two straight with another winnable game on Wednesday at Notre Dame before a season finale against a suddenly very vulnerable NC State squad.
Climbing
- #34 Ohio State Buckeyes (↑5) – OSU picked up one of the biggest wins of the weekend and its best win of the season, defeating #9 Purdue on Sunday to earn just its second Q1 win of the season to finally put some meat on a sparse resume. Now with a top 40 strength of record, the Buckeyes will become a near lock with a win at Penn State on Wednesday. It closes the season hosting Indiana with an opportunity to potentially spoil the Hoosiers’ resume.
- #48 Cincinnati Bearcats (↑6) – NET rankings love a blowout win, so while Cinci was certainly favored to take down Oklahoma State at home, the 23-point margin makes waves in the metrics even this late in the season. The Bearcats close the season with two challenging games, hosting BYU and traveling to Fort Worth for the season finale vs. the Horned Frogs; picking up a pair of wins would make Cincinnati impossible to ignore for the Committee.
- Other Key Bubble Wins: #34 Clemson (↑2) win vs. #17 Louisville; #42 New Mexico (↑3) win vs. #44 San Diego St.; #59 West Virginia (↑6) win vs. #23 BYU; #27 Kentucky (↑2) win vs. #18 Vanderbilt
Falling
- #39 Auburn Tigers (↓4) – The Tigers have become the poster-child for everything that is wrong with the NCAA Tournament at-large selection process. With a 15-14 record and sitting eleventh in the SEC standings, Auburn somehow is still included as a safe Tournament team by many prominent Bracketologists. The Tigers have won just one of its last eight games, including getting swept by the Mississippi schools with the home loss to #91 Ole Miss a hideous black eye to the resume. It doesn’t really matter if you play the top rated strength of schedule if you don’t actually win most of those games.
- #70 LSU Tigers (↓6) – These Tigers have mercifully been eliminated from at-large consideration after getting blown out at home by Oklahoma. LSU fell to last place in the SEC, has an abysmal resume, and now has run out of opportunities to take the wins that would have made up for the accumulation of losses.
- Other Key Bubble Losses: #64 Cal (↓6) Q3 loss to #110 Pitt; #62 Washington (↓7) 27-point home loss to #32 Wisconsin; #46 UCF (↓2) loss to #49 Baylor
Bubble Watch
The at-large race continued to narrow after another big time weekend across the nation. Three teams took the big leap up into lock status, headlined by Saint Mary’s picking up the 11-point victory over #6 Gonzaga in the last ever regular season matchup between the WCC rivals before the Bulldogs move into the Pac 12. Kentucky delivered a thorough demolition of #18 Vandy in Rupp Arena to secure its spot and Miami Florida was able to easily navigate
past its Q4 landmine vs. #163 Boston College to protect its resume safely into lock zone. Teams at the top made big waves in further separating from the Bubble cut-line as SEC squads Georgia, Texas, and Mizzou all took home significant victories that put each on very strong ground into the final week of the season. At the bottom of the race things turned ugly with three clear eliminations and several borderline programs taking damaging losses. LSU fell on its face at home in a “loser leaves town” match vs. Oklahoma; Syracuse fell to 1-10 in Q1 opportunities with the loss at Wake Forest to end its slim hopes; Washington’s loss accumulation became too heavy with nothing of value remaining on the schedule. Much of the debate down the stretch will be around whether floundering high majors will be granted bids rather than multiple bids granted to the Mountain West, A-10, and MAC if the favorites lose in conference tournaments.
Look Ahead:
As the Bubble shrinks, so too does the number of critical games, at least until the first wave of mid-major conference tournament finals hit later this week. However there is plenty of room for upheaval before the weekend’s season finales. The week features many upset opportunities, both for at-large teams to boost a resume with a marquee win over an elite squad or for eliminated teams to sneak up and cause an ugly loss on an at-large resume. The spotlight showdowns around the Bubble are Tuesday night with OU looking to stay alive in the race against a surging Mizzou squad, followed into the late night with a Mountain West slugfest between Boise & SDSU where the loser will be on the brink of elimination.
Bubble Battles 🫧🆚🫧
- #62 Oklahoma Sooners vs. #53 Missouri Tigers – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, ESPNU
- #59 Boise State Broncos vs. #44 San Diego State Aztecs – Tue. Mar. 3, 8:00 PM, CBSSN
Bubble vs. Locks 🫧🆚🔒
- #31 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #16 Alabama Crimson Tide – Tue. Mar. 3, 5:30 PM, ESPN News (Q1)
- #43 Texas A&M Aggies vs. #27 Kentucky Wildcats – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, ESPN2 (Q1)
- #35 Clemson Tigers at #25 UNC Tar Heels – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, ESPN (Q1)
- #45 TCU Horned Frogs at #13 Texas Tech Red Raiders – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, FS1 (Q1)
- #49 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #23 BYU Cougars, Tue. Mar. 3, 8:00 PM, ESPN2 (Q1)
- #39 UCLA Bruins vs. #12 Nebraska Cornhuskers – Tue. Mar. 3, 10:00 PM, FS1 (Q1)
- #37 Texas Longhorns at #19 Arkansas Razorbacks – Wed. Mar. 4, 6:00 PM ESPN2 (Q1)
- #36 SMU Mustangs vs. #30 Miami Hurricanes – Wed. Mar. 4, 6:00 PM, ACC Network (Q1)
- #51 Baylor Bears at #7 Houston Cougars – Wed. Mar. 4, 8:00 PM, ESPN2 (Q1)
Bubble vs. Spoiler 🫧🆚❌
- #48 Miami RedHawks at #153 Toledo Rockets – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, ESPN+ (Q3)
- #56 Seton Hall Pirates at #95 Xavier Musketeers – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, truTV (Q2)
- #46 UCF Knights vs. #84 OK State Cowboys – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, ESPN+ (Q3
- #47 VCU Rams vs. #98 George Mason Patriots – Tue. Mar. 3, 6:00 PM, CBSSN (Q3)
- #58 West Virginia Mountaineers at #102 Kansas State Wildcats – Tue. Mar. 3, 7:00 PM, ESPN+ (Q2)
- #54 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. #163 Boston College Eagles – Tue. Mar. 3, 8:00 PM, ESPNU (Q4)
- #38 Auburn Tigers vs. #70 LSU Tigers – Tue. Mar. 3, 9:00 PM, SEC Network (Q2)
- #41 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #68 Minnesota Gophers – Wed. Mar. 4, 5:30 PM, Big Ten Net (Q2)
- #64 Cal Bears at #168 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – Wed. Mar. 4, 6:00 PM, ESPNU (Q3)
- #34 Ohio State Buckeyes at #124 Penn State Nittany Lions – Wed. Mar. 4, 6:30 PM Peacock (Q2)
- #65 Stanford Cardinal at #89 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Wed. Mar. 4, 8:00 PM, ESPNU (Q2)
- #42 New Mexico Lobos vs. #88 Colorado State Rams – Wed. Mar. 4 9:00 PM CBSSN (Q3)
- #63 USC Trojans at #61 Washington Huskies – Wed. Mar. 4, 9:30 PM, Big Ten Net (Q1)
