The Illini received a great draw in this year’s NCAA Tournament and should be in a strong position to make another second weekend. Illinois still has to win the games, but the odds are in their favor to reach the Sweet 16, with Penn in the first round and either North Carolina or VCU in the second.
Illinois was hurt by tough draws in 2021 and 2022, when they were forced to play Loyola-Chicago and Houston. Loyola-Chicago was ranked No. 9 in the country at KenPom as a No. 8 seed, and Houston was No. 4
at KenPom despite being a lower seed. The committee also did the Illini no favors in 2024 when they dropped BYU from a No. 5 seed to a No. 6 seed and placed them in Illinois’ pod since they cannot play on Sundays. That ultimately did not come to fruition, as BYU was upset by Duquesne and Illinois advanced to its first Sweet 16 since 2005.
The draw is favorable, but Illinois must avoid getting upset like in 2021, when the Illini were a No. 1 seed. Below are a few key areas Illinois must focus on to avoid an early exit in the tournament.
Do NOT Overlook Penn
It is difficult not to look ahead to future rounds, especially with Illinois having a chance to make a deep run, but the Illini cannot overlook this Penn team from the Ivy League. The Ivy League has had recent success upsetting high-major programs, and Penn has an opportunity to continue that trend.
The Ivy League is 6-8 in the NCAA Tournament since 2010, with notable wins in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, 13-seed Yale defeated 4-seed Auburn, which was ranked No. 4 at KenPom entering the tournament, and in 2023, 15-seed Princeton knocked off 2-seed Arizona.
Penn was the No. 3 seed in the Ivy League Tournament, but neither Yale nor Princeton were the highest-ranked KenPom teams in their respective years. Illinois is the better team in this matchup, but they must stay locked in on Penn (and only Penn) until they advance to the Round of 32.
Finish Close Games
Illinois has struggled to win close games this season, and it has become a concerning trend. The Illini are 0–4 in overtime games and will need to figure out how to close out tight contests quickly if they want to make a deep run.
“People think that games come down to the last couple of possessions, but games are sometimes lost in the first half,” Charles Barkley said on truTV during the Texas/NC State First Four game.
Barkley’s comment on live TV reflects several of Illinois’ losses this season. In many of their overtime defeats, the Illini put themselves in that position by blowing leads in regulation and allowing opponents to gain confidence. They held double-digit leads against UCLA and Wisconsin (twice) but failed to close those games out.
Give good teams even a sliver of hope, and they will make you pay. Illinois cannot get comfortable with a lead and allow teams to stay within striking distance.
“One of the things we have done a little bit is when it gets easy offensively, we’ve kind of relaxed defensively,” said Illinois head coach Brad Underwood last week.
Simply put, that issue must be corrected if Illinois wants to make a deep March run.
The Illini have a great opportunity to reach their second Sweet 16 in three years as a No. 3 seed. According to FanDuel, Illinois is -390 to make the Sweet 16, +150 to make the Elite 8, and +380 to make the Final Four.
