The #5 seed Los Angeles Rams (13-5) will travel to Soldier Field to face the #2 seed Chicago Bears (12-6) this upcoming Sunday for the opportunity to play in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams are currently
road favorites (-3.5) but are 0-2 at Chicago during the Sean McVay era. LA will be getting some reinforcements back for this matchup, as Kevin Dotson (ankle) is expected to return to the right guard spot. Will the return of their top guard give them an advantage in the trenches? Here is my analysis of the Rams-Bears matchup and who has the advantage at each position.
QBs: Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams both engineered 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives to advance to the divisional round. Both quarterbacks have been clutch in the 4th quarter and have the ability to manufacture when it matters most. Stafford put together an impressive regular season (1st team All Pro) but Caleb Williams was also impressive in his second year (27 TDs : 7 INT). The knock on Caleb is the poor completion percentage (58.1%) and the head scratching plays that lead to turnovers. At this point, the quarterback with the ball in his hands at the end of the game is likely to win.
Advantage: Rams (moderate)
RBs: Both teams operate with a tandem in the backfield. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum rushed 24 times for 102 yards in the wild card round. Their longest run of the afternoon was only 8 yards.
DeAndre Swift and Kyle Monangai rushed 21 times for 81 yards against Green Bay. I give Chicago a slight edge here with Swift’s shiftiness, especially as a pass catcher in Johnson’s offense. He could be a mismatch for Nate Landman and Omar Speights. Maybe a better way to say this is that the Bears ceiling is higher with their running backs but they also have a lower floor.
Advantage: Bears (slight)
WRs: If he hadn’t already, Puka Nacua eclipses Cooper Kupp in the Rams all time WRs rankings. He’s been more consistent and make plays time and time again that leaves you speechless. And I love Cooper Kupp. But Puka’s first three years have been pretty special. The only concerns I have right now with the Rams wide receivers is 1) Davante Adams has been underwhelming between the 30s and oftentimes letting the ball get too deep to his body, and 2) this offense needs to capitalize on Tutu Atwell’s speed if even as a decoy! Think back to Weeks 4 and 5 where the Colts and 49ers defenses had to respect his ability to take the top off. That allowed for Stafford to pick apart those teams’ secondaries.
The Bears wide receivers could be a similar challenge as Carolina’s. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and DJ Moore are all 6’0” or taller and all way 200+ lbs. None of them are the featured target, making the Rams secondary have to factor all three guys and the tight ends.
Advantage: Rams (slight)
TEs: The Rams should have all four tight ends healthy for the first time since… I don’t know even know. With the lack of connectivity with Adams and a WR3, the Rams need their tight ends to help move the chains.
Colston Loveland is the focal point of the Bears offense. Loveland led the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Since the second half of the season, he has become Caleb Williams preferred target. In the last 3 games he has played, he has seen 38 targets.
Advantage: Bears (moderate)
OL: The early indication is that Kevin Dotson will be able to return for Sunday’s game after missing a month due to an ankle sprain in Week 16. This should be a huge upgrade for Los Angeles as their run game has fallen off in recent weeks. Dotson’s size is also a significant upgrade over Justin Dedich. On the other side of the ball is Gervon Dexter who is 6’6” and 330 lbs.
The Bears have a strong offensive line that features Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson, and Darnell Wright. All four linemen are 70.0+ on PFF.
UPDATED: The Bears will be without Ozzy Trapilo who ruptured his patellar tendon. Theo Benedet will be the starting left tackle on Sunday.
Advantage: Rams (slight)
DL: The Rams defensive front has been key in their wins as they have been able to stop the run and earn the right to rush the passer. Poona Ford (88.7) continues to be the free agent signing of the year for the organization. Kobie Turner’s (82.6) third year play should earn himself a contract extension.
The Bears defensive front is the weak link for their defense. Gervon Dexter Sr. and Grady Jarrett are both graded under 60.0. Their depth is not extensive so the Rams should exploit that unit.
Advantage: Rams (significant)
EDGE: If Jared Verse wanted to make his mark on the playoffs, this is the game to do so. He will be facing the Bears backup left tackle after Trapilo’s injury. Setting an edge against the run and keeping Caleb Williams contained to the pocket are essential to the Rams advancing. Byron Young and Josiah Stewart will have a tall order going up against Darnell Wright.
Austin Booker and Montez Sweat are Chicago’s edge rushers. Neutralizing Sweat will be Warren McClendon’s responsibility. The Bears have only amassed 2.0 sacks/game (26th best in the NFL).
Advantage: Rams (moderate)
ILBs: Tremaine Edmunds, D’Marco Jackson, and Amen Ogbongbemiga are Bears trio at the second level. TJ Edwards suffered a broken fibula against the Packers and will be out for the rest of the playoffs.
Nate Landman and Omar Speights have been quiet over the last few weeks with their splash plays, with Speights’s PFF grade dropping as of late.
Advantage: Push
DBs: Akhello Witherspoon is returning to the IR since he reaggravated his shoulder. I personally believe that Roger McCreary should see more time with the starters. Durant-McCreary-Forbes-Lake would be my grouping of CBs to go with Kinchens and Curl as the safeties.
The Bears have a lot of high profile names in their secondary. Jaylon Johhson, Jaquon Brisker, Kevin Byard, and CJ Gardner-Johnson are four names that Stafford will have to be mindful of. The Bears have 23 interceptions but have given up 32 passing touchdowns. They surrendered 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love in the wild card game.
Advantage: Bears (moderate)
ST: Harrison Mevis passed his first test kicking in the playoffs; connecting on 46 and 42 yard field goals. Chicago’s weather will be a completely different animal.
The Bears will have the advantage here with Cairo Santos’s experience at Soldier Field.
Advantage: Bears (moderate)
Coaching: Sean McVay and Ben Johnson are arguably the two best playcallers in football. This game should be offensive with both defenses giving up plenty of yards and touchdowns as of late. Chris Shula must stop the run to make Caleb Williams win this game with his arm (not his legs).
Advantage: Rams (slight)
Field / Weather: The Rams must prove that they can win on the road in the playoffs and that they can do so in wintry conditions. It is expected to be 20 or below with potential snow. The Bears are accustom to this type of football. Soldier Field is also a lively fan base. The scale definitely favors Chicago in this regard until Los Angeles can prove themselves in these type of conditions.
Advantage: Bears (moderate)
What is the Rams biggest advantage going into Sunday Night?
What unit (aside from special teams) needs to avoid a letdown to give the team the best opportunity to win?
