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Royals begin a nine-game homestand as they are still on the outside, looking in at a Wild Card spot. They stand 69-66, three games back as they take on the Tigers this weekend.
I thought I’d write up a few thoughts about where the Royals stand.
- Every homestand has to be a winning homestand at this point, and really, the Royals need to take six of nine on the homestand that begins tonight. The teams with the top ten records in baseball win nearly two-thirds of their home games (.636 winning percentage, to be precise). The Tigers pose a tough challenge, but the Twins and Angels are two of the worst road teams in baseball (.413 winning percentage).
- The average win total of the third Wild Card since baseball expanded the playoffs is 86.8. The lowest win total was 84 by the 2023 Marlins. The Royals are chasing three pretty good Wild Card teams – the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners – so I think its fair they’ll probably need 87 wins, which means finishing 18-10 over the next four weeks. That is doable, although the next and final homestand when the Mariners and first-place Blue Jays come to town will be huge.
- I think it is understandable to have a little bit of buyer’s remorse over Seth Lugo’s contract extension, but it’s also premature to say it was a bad deal. He has given up 27 runs in 29 innings with 18 walks in the six starts since signing a two-year, $46 million contract. The Royals say his finger is fine, but that kind of loss of command suggests some sort of impairment, whether its a tired shoulder, sore groin, or just general fatigue. It is fair to wonder, however, if in an alternative universe the Royals trade him and still improve this month, much like how the Tigers made a run last year after trading Jack Flaherty. But he’s here, and there is still time for him to turn around and finish strong over his final starts of the year.
- Maikel Garcia may be the best-kept secret in baseball. Did you know he is 13th in all of baseball in fWAR among position players, more valuable than Juan Soto, Elly de La Cruz, and his good friend Jazz Chisholm Jr.? He leads all American League third basemen in Outs Above Average and is second to part-timer Ernie Clement in Defensive Runs Saved. Maikel should finally bring home that Gold Glove.
- Bobby Witt Jr. had some disappointing at-bats with runners in scoring position earlier this week against the White Sox, although he came through in the series finale. But that’s baseball – even the mighty Casey struck out! Overall, Bobby is hitting .319 with runners in scoring position, the 26th-best mark among qualified hitters. Perhaps he set the bar too high last year hitting .388 with runners in scoring position, the best mark in baseball. He’s clutch, but he’s also human.
- If anyone is non-human, it is Salvador Perez. He has gotten better as the season has gone along, and his 124 wRC+ since the All-Star break is fourth among all catchers, topping even Cal Raleigh. He now has the fifth-most home runs in MLB history for a catcher in his age-30 season and older. I’ve always been a bit dismissive of his Hall of Fame chances, but he seems determined to make it close.
- The Royals will likely add either Jac Caglianone or Carter Jensen as part of expanded rosters in September, and my money is on Caglianone. Carter actually makes a lot of sense as they have to add him to the 40-man roster anyway, he would give you a third catcher to allow more flexibility late in games, and he has legitimately earned it by hitting .284/.396/.628 with 13 home runs in 41 games at Triple-A. But I suspect they like Caglianone’s power potential in that lineup if he can figure things out, and they don’t feel like he has anything left to learn at Triple-A. They could add both if they were willing to send Michael Massey down. I know he had a decent series against the White Sox, but I don’t know that his ceiling is as high as a Caglianone or Jensen as far as September performance. And with Adam Frazier on the roster and playing well, Massey seems a bit redundant.
- After a hot start with the Padres, Freddy Fermin has settled back into his career stats, hitting .254/.299/.333 with them. I love Freddy and I think he’ll do well for the Padres, it was just a bit silly that some were acting like Alec Zumwalt and the Royals were holding his bat back. He’s a terrific defense-first backstop with that “dawg in him” attitude that will help the Padres win games, but his offense is always going to be below-average.
- The trade is already looking a clear win for both teams, as Ryan Bergert has looked impressive in his first five starts. Small sample caveats abound, but Bergert has attacked the strike zone, which has allowed him to go deeper into games. He’s a rookie, with six more controllable years, to get a solid arm in return for a semi-regular catcher, even a Gold Glove candidate like Freddy, is a steal.
- I gave some gentle ribbing to some Cardinals friends of mine over the smallest attendance ever at Busch Stadium. But Royals fans need to come out and support their team! The team is in the hunt, and it looks like Kansas City will have some really ideal cooler weather next week.
