Fiorentina heads into the final match of the Conference League league phase (has to be a better way to phrase that) sitting in 11th with 9 points but could attain the coveted top 8 finish with a win, skipping a playoff round to advance directly to the knockout stage. Standing between the crumbling Tuscans and that top 8 spot is FC Lausanne-Sport, currently occupying the 16th spot in the table and just a point behind its visitor.
Lausanne represents Switzerland’s 4th-largest city and has a storied
history, including 16 major domestic trophies (albeit none this century) and the Intertoto Cup in 1992. Currently sitting 8th in the Super League, les Bleu et Blanc have won just 1 of their past 9 games in all competitions and have produced 3 straight scoreless draws. Even so, Peter Zeidler’s men will doubtless be ready to beat a supposedly illustrious opponent in Fiorentina as well as hope for a ticket into the knockout round, so expect a tough game and a fine atmosphere of 10,000+ Francophone Swiss.
The match will be played Thursday, 18 December 2025, at 20:00 GMT/3:00 PM EST, at the Stade de la Tuiliére in Lausanne, Switzerland. The forecast calls for a crisp evening but not nearly as chilly as you’d expect for December on the shores of Lake Geneva; it won’t come close to freezing so at least the 800+ Viola supporters making the trip won’t suffer from the cold (even though watching Fiorentina might leave them that way). And hey, Lausanne’s never beaten an Italian team. Maybe those hardy souls will get something to cheer for.
Three things to watch for
1. Fiorentina’s finishing
I wrote about this in the aftermath of the defeat to Hellas Verona, but Fiorentina’s Serie A form (winless through 15 games, had you heard?) defies xG. Fbref and Understat both see Fiorentina as a vaguely mid-table side by the numbers, making the club’s months-long fart even less explicable, at least until you see that both sites have the Viola as the biggest xG underperformers by a wide margin. Put in Uomo Calcistico Corretto terms, the players aren’t taking their chances
The culprit is Moise Kean, who’s xG underperformance is astounding by any measure: depending on whose model you use, he should have 8 or 9 goals instead of 2. That’s the difference between 15 straight without a win and a regular bad start. It’s not just Kean, though, as Rolando Mandragora is the only player outpacing his xG. Everyone else is either right on the mark or well underneath it, which is a remarkable achievement.
The best part, of course, is that Paolo Vanoli doesn’t have an easy fix. Fiorentina’s created chances under his watch but the forwards can’t finish them. There’s only so much a coach can do. Improving the atmosphere around the club is the most obvious fix but that’s easier said than done. I have no idea what he’s telling his players behind closed doors—not what he’s telling the press, that’s for sure—but at this point, he’d be forgiven if it was tearful entreaties to just put the damn ball in the net.
2. Conceding the stupidest possible goal
Fiorentina has conceded lots of goals this year. Some of them have been good. Many of them have not. The inability to defend set pieces is infuriating. The defenders’ remarkable inability to clear their lines is infuriating. Davide de Gea getting beaten at the near post 3 games running is infuriating. The failure to track midfield runners is infuriating. Really, it’s all infuriating.
Hopefully, though, we at least get some comedy amidst the fury. You know and I know that the Viola will cough up at least one goal because clean sheets are off the table; the last one these bozos achieved was at Rapid Vienna nearly two months ago. This defensive unit cannot and will not prevent the ball from rolling over the line and expecting it to change is, at this point, the height of idiocy.
The hope, though, is that we at least get to see a really dumb goal. I’m thinking of Odilon Kossounou’s cross wafting over de Gea’s head and into the net. Gift Orban starting a run from 30 yards inside his own half and simply outpacing his marker with no cover anywhere in sight. Mykola Mikhaylenko saying a quick rosary and just putting his damn laces through it. Lorenzo Colombo scoring while sitting flat on his ass. Give me glorious, rather than routine, ineptitude and I’ll be grateful. That’s what watching Fiorentina has done to me.
3. Cracks in the facade
At this point, everyone’s heard the reports about fractures among the players, the tension between social groups, and the noxious cloud encompassing the entire dressing room. I’m sure some of those stories are exaggerated but I’m equally certain that yeah, Fiorentina’s not a fun place to work right now. When everything in your professional life is going wrong in front of thousands of people, you’re going to get a little touchy.
These guys are professionals and part of being a professional is keeping your emotions in check. They don’t all have to like each other but that have to be able to work together. This team is so rotten, though, that I’m looking for any signs of friction between players, because once that toxicity spills into the open, it’s curtains. The only solution in that case would be excising the most divisive voices, and hey, would you look at that? The January mercato’s only two weeks away.
Possible lineups
Share My Tactics" data-portal-copyright="Made using Share My Tactics" />
Ted’s Memorial Blind Guess Department
The bookies favor Fiorentina quite a bit, which I will continue to find surprising for as long as Fiorentina remains cheeks. Lausanne, of course, hasn’t hit the heights recently either, so maybe the Viola are decent value. Given the doomed whimsy of which Fiorentina is the primary avatar, winning the Conference League at the third time of asking while getting relegated is the funniest possible outcome so I guess I’m assuming that’ll happen.
I’ll tip the visitors to win 1-2 behind goals from Roberto Piccoli and Fabiano Parisi, with Theo Bair scoring a wacky one for the hosts. Bobby Smalls has a point to prove and should bundle one over the line after biffing half a dozen chances, while Parisi’s been in great form over the past couple weeks. I think this will be a pretty ugly affair, roughly equivalent to two blindfolded harbor seals trying to hit each other with pool noodles, with all the danger and mayhem that image entails.
Forza Viola!
