This week, there was an answer to the question about J.T. Realmuto returning to the Phillies and what kind of contract he would get. Matt Gelb, ever the insider, predicted a three-year deal is not entirely
off the table.
Yadier Molina signed a three-year extension in 2018 that covered his age-35 to -37 seasons. That term will be a starting point for Realmuto’s camp this winter. It might be uncomfortable territory for the Phillies, but the veteran catcher could have enough interest to secure a three-year offer from someone. The state of catching in the sport is that flimsy.
“Flimsy” is such an underused word.
Narrowing down the leaderboards on Fangraphs to catchers that had at least 250 plate appearances, you can see that it is a dire situation. Cal Raleigh stands out for his otherworldly (MVP?) season for Seattle, but after him, the highest fWAR for the position is Alejandro Kirk at 4.7 fWAR. According to Baseball Reference, the Mariners had the most WAR for the catcher’s position, again thanks to Raleigh, and that position was second lowest to only third base. Dire times, indeed.
So, the idea that Realmuto, even entering his age 35 season, could secure a three-year is not crazy at all. In fact, it’s probably highly likely that it will happen. The question will be: who’s gonna give it to him?
One has to reasonably figure that Realmuto will be looking for two main things when testing the market for his services. First, who will be willing to give that third year on a contract offer? Second, which team is close to contending? Having never won a World Series, Realmuto is likely not going to a team that is in some kind of rebuild mode, even if that team would probably do well to get him thanks to whatever young pitchers that team is going to be sending to the mound. That presence behind the plate that Realmuto provides would be exactly what developing pitchers need, but Realmuto doesn’t need to do the same. He’s more interested in winning, one would assume, at this point in his career. That would probably limit his market to teams that would be fine with giving him the length of contract he’d want plus the opportunity to contend for a championship.
So let’s rank these teams. Which ones have the best chances at outbidding the Phillies?
Rebuilding, likely out: White Sox, Rockies, Nationals, A’s, Twins, Marlins
There would be valid arguments for Realmuto to go to one of these teams. Most of those arguments would revolved around career accomplishments, family goals and anything that mattered to him more than winning. For instance, if he had already won a ring somewhere, completed all he wanted to on an individual level and wanted to set his family up in a certain part of the country, then signing with one of these would be totally fine. Many major leaguers have taken the money and run before and more will do it in the future. Yet none of these teams are close to competing, or even spending actual money on payroll, any time in the future.
The Angels: Angels
Because they make no sense in whatever they’re trying to do out there.
Maybe, if they didn’t have someone young and cheap already: Orioles, Yankees, Tigers
The Orioles are in something of an enviable position in that they have not one, but two catchers that could start for them full time in Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo. The latter probably needs more work behind the plate and is likely more of a first baseman anyway. Couple that with some of their recent draft picks that’s a great spot to be in as a franchise.
The Yankees have Austin Wells handling regular duties and Ben Rice available if the need arises. Detroit has something of a similar situation with Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers sharing the job for them.
These three teams are set with cheap, talented catchers already in place. Even the veteran leadership Realmuto might bring wouldn’t be worth the money it would take to sign him in the first place.
We’re good, thanks: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners, Brewers, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Braves
If you’ve already got a catcher, why sign an aging one that really has most of his value behind the plate than aside it? These teams are already set behind the dish, both now and in the foreseeable future, so unless they wanted that already employed catcher to get a few more days off and use at the DH spot more often, Realmuto isn’t heading to any of these destinations.
Yet we should probably never count out the Dodgers, so…
They have their own leader to bring back: Royals
Salvador Perez is an icon in Kansas City and will be re-signed to a deal to bring him back. The remaining holdover from their World Series winning team in 2015, Perez is likely to finish his career with the Royals in some capacity. Maybe he’ll catch a bit, maybe he’ll play first a bit. There are several catchers in the pipeline in Kansas City that can take over some of the load in a transition from one era to another, but bringing in Realmuto would make no sense to a team that really should be focusing on their own leader.
I can maybe see it, but they have other issues: Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, Cubs
These are the kinds of teams that could probably use someone like Realmuto if they didn’t have other holes somewhere else on the roster that are more pressing than adding a 35 year old catcher. In Houston, they’re likely going to be focused on hoping Framber Valdez can be convinced to return. Same with the Cubs and Kyle Tucker. In Texas, they could use a catcher like Realmuto as an upgrade of Kyle Higashioka and Jonah Heim, but they have other issues that are more important. St. Louis probably wants to see what they have in someone like Ivan Herrera and Jimmy Crooks as they transition to a new front office think tank.
Makes theoretical sense, but their ownership is cheap: Guardians, Pirates
The Pirates are a bad franchise thanks to their ownership hamstringing them financially. They also have a very talented pitching staff in place that is young and under control for the foreseeable future and has built their foundation on those arms. Might pairing them with Realmuto take them up a notch?
Granted, they do have two former first round picks in Joey Bart and Henry Davis on their roster and the fit doesn’t seem like a good one. Yet a case could be made that Realmuto is indeed an upgrade over either player and would help mentor this young staff as they enter some of their prime seasons. Presenting pitches is not something Realmuto has excelled at of late, but controlling the run game for whatever runners do reach base and being able to call a good game are assets that this pitching staff, Paul Skenes in particular, would benefit from. He is on the decline offensively, but this is also a team that famously has had lighter bats of late anyway.
You can squint and maybe see a match here, but seeing ownership greenlight a move like this doesn’t seem like the Pirates would be interested in.
The same could apply to the Guardians. They have Bo Naylor behind the plate and he’s….well, he’s fine. He’s about average as a fielder and below average with the bat. The team does have some find pitching that would use a veteran leader behind the plate, but they’ve already committed to Austin Hedges as the backup to Naylor. They have someone who can fill that role that Realmuto would fill and he’s doing cheaper and on a one-year deal.
Again, as with the Pirates, even if the fit can be squeezed in a bit, the desire of ownership that allocate the funds is lacking. They have other spots that need offense as badly, if not worse, than what the need is behind the plate.
Best fits: Phillies, Rays, Mets, Padres
These are the teams that, in my opinion, would represent the best fits for Realmuto and what he brings to the table.
The Rays have been after an answer behind the plate for years. Might Realmuto be the one they actually splurge a bit on to lock down that position? Giving out a three year deal would seem out of character, but the need is there. The Mets have Francisco Alvarez, but let’s face it. He ain’t it. Couple that with the possible loss of Pete Alonso and an opening at DH, Alvarez might be more useful in one of those two positions. In San Diego, they could use a piece like Realmuto to help improve a pitching staff that is still the backbone of their team. The answers they have tried lately haven’t worked, but Realmuto might.
Then we have the Phillies. If there is a three-year deal to be done, they probably are the team to do it. They have the comfort level, the familiarity, all the intangibles. They have the need thanks to the trade of Eduardo Tait and an upper minor league level that doesn’t have a major league ready catcher that can step in and be as effective. Rafael Marchan is a fine backup catcher; a starter, he is not.
Is a three-year deal out there? I find it hard to believe that it would come from any team other than the Phillies, and only then as a counter to get him to not sign somewhere else (ex “Hey, we’ll give you three years, but less AAV”). If he can find it and likes that location, more power to him.
I’m just not seeing the options.
