Each week, I’ll publish two film-room previews: one focusing on the offense and one on the defense. These are primarily film-based, focusing on the schemes, tendencies, and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all statistics coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I also record a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in greater detail and where you can further support my work.
The Commanders have a decent offense and a very good young quarterback, but I came away wondering
how much more Jayden Daniels could do with better support. Injuries have depleted the talent around Daniels, so the Eagles aren’t facing Washington at their best. For this preview, I focused my film study on the four games Daniels played.
Pass Game
Remember all the offseason discussion about the Commanders becoming an under-center offense? Well, that hasn’t really happened. David Blough has introduced more of it than we saw under Kliff Kingsbury, but the Commanders still operate from under center on only around 27% of their plays. More importantly, they don’t look particularly good doing it. This offense looks far more comfortable in shotgun and empty, spreading the defense out and letting Daniels see what is happening in front of him. It sounds familiar, doesn’t it?!
The lack of production from under center is pretty striking. Looking through their passing plays, I found no explosive completions of 20-plus yards from under center and only one under-center throw that generated at least +1 EPA. The intended relationship between the run game and the play-action passing game just hasn’t produced enough. They will show some interesting receiver insert action and crossing routes behind linebackers, but the under-center menu is heavily tilted toward runs and play action. They barely ever just drop back and throw. Defenses aren’t being asked to defend a particularly broad range of possibilities. Sound familiar?! (On a serious note, I want to write an offseason piece about young OC’s trying to force QB’s under center when it doesn’t suit them, because I think it’s a theme of this season).
Stefon Diggs is the biggest remaining receiving threat. The Eagles already know how much trouble he can cause after the first meeting. He remains an outstanding route runner, and the Commanders move him around to find favorable matchups. He’s spent a lot of time in the slot, but I wouldn’t expect him to stay in one place all evening. His ability to change pace, manipulate leverage, and separate gives Daniels a dependable option in an offense that badly needs one.
McLaurin’s absence makes the rest of the receiver rotation much more important. Antonio Williams should get more opportunities, and there are some encouraging examples of him working on choice routes and intermediate concepts. However, I would also keep an eye on Treylon Burks. He doesn’t get a huge number of targets, but I thought he looked pretty good in the games I watched. He can get downfield, threaten vertically, and make plays on crossing routes. I loved Burks coming out of college, so there is absolutely some bias here! Still, there is talent to work with, and this offense needs somebody to take on a bigger role.
The receivers benefit from playing with a quarterback who is much more advanced than the “one read and run” label that athletic quarterbacks inevitably get. Daniels wants to win from the pocket. He will stand in against pressure and release the ball before a receiver has finished his break. This opposite-hash comeback to Williams below is an excellent example. That throw requires anticipation, timing, and confidence in where the receiver will be. It’s a fantastic throw from a very good young quarterback.
I do think there are stretches when Daniels is a little too conservative, particularly early in games. Kurt Warner has highlighted that, and I agree to an extent. However, watching the second half against the 49ers shows what he can do when he starts letting it rip. He also had a few accuracy misses in the games I watched, so I wouldn’t describe every aspect of his passing as consistently excellent. But the quality of his better plays is obvious.
The thing that impressed me most was how quickly Daniels eliminates what isn’t available. You regularly see him start on one side, recognize that the defense has taken it away, and work back across the field within the timing of the play. He isn’t automatically looking for an escape route when the first read is covered. He can get to his backside routes and deliver the ball with anticipation.
That matters for the Eagles’ linebackers because the Commanders like attacking the middle of the field with crossing and dig routes. Daniels is comfortable finding those windows, and Chig Okonkwo gives him another receiving option inside. The linebackers can’t chase the first underneath route they see or get pulled too far forward by a run fake.
However, the passing game has a significant weakness: its answers to pressure. There are too many plays when the protection is stressed, and the routes don’t give Daniels an accessible immediate answer. Overload pressures, particularly bringing four defenders from one side, have caused repeated problems. The offense can end up asking the quarterback to survive while receivers are still working downfield.
This is something I want Vic Fangio to attack. We haven’t seen enough of those aggressive overload looks from the Eagles, and this matchup makes sense to mix them in. The Commanders have taken 14 sacks as a team, with eight coming against blitzes and eight coming on third down. Obvious passing situations and pressure have caused real problems.
Daniels has to take some responsibility too. It would be too generous to blame every pressure failure on Blough. There are snaps when a quick throw is available, and Daniels doesn’t get to it quickly enough. In the example below, he spends too long considering the vertical route rather than moving immediately to the answer over the middle. His willingness to attack downfield is part of what makes him dangerous, but against pressure he sometimes needs to accept the shorter completion and keep the offense moving.
Of course, there is a major complication with pressuring Daniels. His ability to escape! Against the Giants, he ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He is averaging more than 50 rushing yards per appearance, and the threat is much bigger than a few designed quarterback runs.
Rush-lane integrity has to be excellent. You can have the right coverage and still lose the down if the rush gives him a clear exit. The Eagles need coordinated pressure, with defenders understanding who is closing which lane. Getting near Daniels isn’t enough if his next move is to run through the space you just vacated.
Up front, I thought the interior offensive line looked good overall, particularly with Sam Cosmi back. The more obvious protection opportunities are at tackle. Brandon Coleman, replacing the injured Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, is the biggest weakness. He has allowed 22 pressures and four sacks this year, and the Eagles need their edge rushers to make that matchup count.
Josh Conerly Jr. has improved at right tackle, but power remains something opponents repeatedly test. After watching the Eagles fail to exploit the Cowboys’ weakness at right tackle last week, I’m certainly not assuming they will suddenly dominate these matchups. They have to prove they can.
Run Game
The Commanders’ rushing production looks more respectable when you include what Daniels creates. The conventional running game is much less impressive. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on injured reserve, and Rachaad White is now the lead option, with Jeremy McNichols and Austin Ekeler also involved. White contributes as a receiver, but this backfield hasn’t consistently generated explosive plays. I found only 11 runs worth at least +1 EPA when researching this offense.
They are heavily committed to zone, using both inside zone and outside zone a lot. They are not running the ball particularly well, though. The injuries matter, and I don’t think the lack of results means every offensive lineman is playing badly. There are good individual blocks, but the complete play isn’t coming together.
Both tackles can contribute in the run game. Conerly has been a better run blocker than I expected coming out of college, particularly when reaching defenders and working on the backside of zone. Coleman has also shown considerably more as a run blocker than as a pass protector.
The player I’ll be watching most closely, though, is Sam Cosmi. He is a really good guard, and he had a fantastic game against Jalen Carter last year. Carter badly needs to respond after his performance against the Cowboys, but this is a difficult matchup to do it in. Beating Cosmi will require more than simply expecting Carter’s talent to take over.
Five-man fronts have caused the Commanders problems. When defenses cover the center and both guards, it becomes harder to create the combination blocks that help their zone game function. Interior blockers are forced into difficult individual matchups, and the backs can be left trying to find a lane before the blocking has generated any movement. That has contributed to their ineffective under-center rushing attack.
The Eagles should have ways to challenge that structure, but the execution has to be significantly better than last week. Their front needs to control gaps and make the back work for his yards. There is little value in putting the 5 defenders on the line of scrimmage if you end up with Jalyx Hunt as your 3-technique.
The quarterback keep threat adds another responsibility for the edge. Those plays are worth respecting even though they haven’t been a huge part of the rushing volume. Most of Daniels’ rushing yards have come via scrambles.
Final Thoughts
I think this is a decent offense with a quarterback who makes it dangerous. Daniels can punish good coverage with his legs and bad coverage with his anticipation. But with McLaurin gone, this is an offense the Eagles should be able to make work extremely hard for its points.
Personally, I want Fangio to be more aggressive in how he attacks their protection. Mix in overloads, force the quick decisions that have troubled Daniels, and make the tackles hold up. At the same time, the rush has to function as a unit. Letting Daniels escape repeatedly would waste whatever the coverage achieves.
Above all, I want a response from the defensive front. Carter against Cosmi is a major part of that, but this has to be a team effort. After what happened against the Cowboys, I’m not interested in assuming the Eagles will win because they have the more talented defensive line. This matchup gives them opportunities to bounce back. They need to take them.
Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you would like to support me further, please check out my Patreon here!
