Welcome to the triumphant return of the Friday Tailgate, the virtual spot to pull up a chair, grab a beverage, and cool your heels while we wait for kickoff. Maestro, hit us with some guitar pickin’ suitable for college football picking:
Normally in this space we’ve traditionally played a stimulating game of “Over or Under”, but let’s switch things up for the new season, shall we? There’s a jumbo slate of excellent college football this weekend, and while we don’t know a whole lot about anybody in college football just
yet (except Boise State, they may not be so hot this year) that’s no reason to avoid speculating. To that end several of the friendly and helpful staff here at Dawg Sports have agreed to put their reputations as pigskin prognosticators on the line by picking the results of a handful of marquee matchups.
If you refuse to follow my advice, and would like to lay your money down on these games and the rest of the weekend’s action the odds can be found over at FanDuel.
Auburn/Baylor (Auburn -1.5)
HNDawg: There aren’t many seats hotter than Hugh Freeze’s on the Plains heading into 2025. While I don’t think Auburn will contend for a playoff spot, they should at least be an improved squad this season with new quarterback Jackson Arnold. An opening day victory over Baylor will provide some false hope to the Auburn faithful.
MaconDawg: There are few things I hate more than picking Auburn to win. And I don’t have a great deal of faith in the Plainsmen once the meat of the SEC schedule hits. But I think Auburn’s got more offensive weapons (principally in the receiving corps) than the Baptist Bears can handle. Auburn 34, Baylor 27.
Squillian: As much as I’d love for Baylor to curb-stomp the Warplainstiglemen into the ground, I don’t see it happening. Auburn – 27, Baylor – 14
Nick: An Auburn loss here would have Hugh Freeze on the hot seat, meaning he would need to consider changing his last name. Wacky things can happen in Waco, but I think Auburn’s talent ultimately gets them the win here, even if it takes some time to gel. The War Eagles and Tigers win a sloppy one. Auburn 24 Baylor 13
GlimmerTwinDawg: Auburn looks incredible in a blowout win. Freeze does use more than 1 QB, but mostly Arnold who throws for 200+ and 2 TDs. This way it will be much more satisfying when we beat them down at Cam Newton’s retirement ceremony in a few weeks.
Seth: Dave Aranda got off the hot seat and resumes control over the defense on a team that should also have a pretty explosive offense. Auburn is probably starting a gently used Jackson Arnold, though Hugh Freeze is being coy about who’s going to be taking snaps. That’s either coach-speak or an extremely bad sign. I’ll take Baylor, 45-42, in a game that might look like a Big 12 shootout from yesteryear.
LugnutDawg: Baylor 28, Auburn 10
Ohio State/Texas (Ohio State -1.5)
HNDawg: #1 vs. #3. Not just their AP Poll rankings, but also where they stand for the oddest fanbase (sandwiched around Tennessee of course… and with Ohio State #1). The Buckeyes are the favorite at home, but it’s not THAT hard to go into Columbus and beat Ryan Day as an underdog (Hello, 7-5 Michigan). Texas wins a close one, and the Arch Heisman train chugs along.
MaconDawg: If Arch Manning’s last name were “Donaldson” or “Splinterinmytoe” I don’t think Texas would be ranked #1. That being said, the Longhorns should have a championship level defense and plenty of talent on offense. Texas is back to the extent that “back” means ready to contend for a national title (though they won’t win it all in 2025, you heard it here first). They will win this weekend however and get the hype train going to an unreal level. Longhorns 30, Buckeyes 26.
Squillian: Can I nominate this one for meteor game of the week? Y’know, the one where you want a meteor strike to happen so they both lose… Ohio State – 27, Texas – 31
GlimmerTwinDawg: An OSU team looks invincible as they start fast and keep the pedal down. Texas makes a game of it, Arch looks the part, but the moment was too big for Sark’s Horns.
Nick: Both teams will look a lot different than last year’s matchup in the semifinals. Even if it’s just wishful thinking, Arch struggles to find consistency in his first big start, Caleb Downs seals the game with a late INT, and the ESPN talking heads who have already crowded Manning as the next coming fumble their words trying to explain this one. Ohio State 27 Texas 21
Seth: Ohio State likely regresses a bit on defense this year, relative to Ohio State’s usual quality. But they still have the best player in college football out wide in Jeremiah Smith, and while Julian Sayin isn’t a Manning, he’s still a mega-five-star who’s been here for a year. I’ll take an OSU at home in a close one, 28-24. Whatever happens, I hope you like hearing about Arch Manning on sports media because this one is primed for overreaction.
LugnutDawg: Texas 35, Ohio State 26.
Alabama/FSU (Alabama -13.5)
HNDawg: Thomas Castellanos talked waaaaaay too much trash before this game. Now, this isn’t Saban’s Alabama, but they still have an elite roster who don’t take too kindly to that type of trash talk. Tide Roll big.
Macondawg: Florida State will be better than in 2024. But not that much better. Alabama may be worse in 2025 than last season. But not that much worse. Bama 27, FSU 17.
Squillian: I have a colleague and a quasi-niece who are both FSU alum. And nearly every Bama fan I’ve ever met is insufferable. FSU – 28, Alabama – 24
GlimmerTwinDawg: It isn’t always pretty, but the Tide slowly pull away. This is almost solely due to the ineptitude of the ‘Noles. This tells us absolutely nothing about either team going forward.
Nick: As much fun as it would be to watch Alabama lose this one, I can’t see it happening. FSU is coming off one of the worst seasons ever, and Alabama still has Alabama-level talent. The Tide picks up steam in the second half and runs away with it.
Seth: The 2023 Georgia Bulldogs ended the season by doing to FSU what Bane did to Batman. The main thing to watch for here is whether or not FSU shows any signs of life after a complete implosion in 2024. Alabama should roll in this one, 45-21, and Ryan Williams (did you know he’s only 18??) will rack up some major yards.
LugnutDawg: Bama 24, FSU 16
LSU/Clemson (Clemson -4.5)
HNDawg: LSU is 0-5 this decade in season openers, which sounds like a made-up stat. Brian Kelly is on an even hotter seat than Hugh Freeze. This won’t ruin LSU’s season, but it will only increase the temp of said seat.
MaconDawg: I think lil’ ole Clemson is going to be pretty good this season, especially defensively. But for my money Nussmeier is probably the best quarterback in the SEC. This one feels like a game where somebody’s defense or special teams scores to make the difference. I think it will be the Tigers playing at home, not the ones playing on the road. Clemson 31, LSU 28.
Squillian: The tiger battle….in Death Valley. At night. If I didn’t have season tickets (and the tickets to this game weren’t INSANE)…I’d consider attending this one – it’ll be one for the ages. But….since a lot of my money went to Clemson with my boy, I gotta go with the tigers. Clemson – 41, LSU – 35
GlimmerTwinDawg: Two words: Brian Kelly. Just like the USC opener last year, LSU plays good but just can’t get out of their own way. The Orange stay in front and Klubnik becomes the Heisman front-runner.
Nick: Apparently LSU made a deal with the devil in 2019, and the price was that they would never be allowed to win a Week 1 game ever again. The bayou Tigers are 0-5 in openers since then, against some less-than-stellar competition. Both “star” QBs play well in Death Valley, but Clemson wins because it can’t be LSU. Clemson 34 LSU 28
Seth: Brian Kelly and Dabo Swinney meet in a battle of the two men I’d least like to have dinner with. I’m not quite sold that Clemson is back to its mid-2010s form, but returning an experienced starter in Cade Klubnik gives them a huge advantage over most national title aspirants. That edge may be negated here, however, as LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is also getting preseason Heisman buzz. Still, Kelly hasn’t won a season opener, and I don’t think he’ll start now. 31-24 Clemson.
LugnutDawg: LSU 31, Clemson 10.
Notre Dame/Miami (Notre Dame -2.5)
HNDawg: The winner will think they are winning it all. The loser will be in complete meltdown mode. I have faith in only one thing in this game: Mario Cristobal doing something actively detrimental.
MaconDawg: There seems to be a lot of excitement about Carson Beck in Miami. The thing that I’ve heard surprisingly little about is the fact that a little less than nine months ago Beck was standing on the sideline unable to lift his arm, and shortly thereafter had a relatively complex surgery on that arm. That comes with some question marks for me regarding his sharpness and the Miami offense’s level of preparation, especially against a Notre Dame defense that plays disciplined football and doesn’t give throwers a lot of big gaps. Notre Dame 34, Miami 20.
Squillian: They’re not in South Bend, so no touchdown Jesus, and there don’t appear to be any (actual) hurricanes on the horizon. Give me Notre Dame – 35, Miama – 14
GlimmerTwinDawg: Carson Beck goes off, but is under pressure quite a bit. Miami can’t tackle, and ND runs all over them and gets the win late.
Nick: Carson Beck felt bad about not being able to play Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl last season, so he transferred to Miami to get the opportunity. The last time these two met in Hard Rock, the place was rocking, and the Irish had no luck. That’s not the case this time, as Beck plays well in his return from injury, but the Irish run game is too much for The U to handle. Notre Dame 27 Miami 24
Seth: I’m quite puzzled that anyone feels good about Miami this year since, though I wish him well, I can’t help but think Carson Beck is going to be a downgrade from Cam Ward. Still, Notre Dame lost a lot after last year, and they didn’t name CJ Carr the starter at QB until this week. Anyway, I don’t know how anyone could trust Mario Cristobal in a big game, so I’ll say 24-14 Irish.
LugnutDawg: Notre Dame 13, Miami 9.
Georgia/Marshall (Georgia -38.5)
HNDawg: No one believes in Gunner Stockton or Georgia, and they are wrong. Georgia wins, but the gameplan will be be vanilla to not show much ahead of September showdowns against Tennessee and Alabama. Stockton is efficient, Frazier tops 100 yards, and Noah Thomas snags his first of many TDs. Dawgs on top.
MaconDawg: Kirby wants two things out of this game: effort and execution. I think he’ll get enough of both for Georgia to win easily, but I also expect we’ll be seeing some reserves by the end of the third. Marshall has 62 transfers on their 85 man roster under a new staff and there’s just no way that comes together well by week one. Georgia 41, Marshall 17.
Squillian: Home opener. I understand why it isn’t a night game, but boy, there’s nothing like Sanford at night. I think Marshall will surprise us (not in a good way), but in the end, the boys git ‘er done. Georgia – 49, Marshall – 21
GlimmerTwinDawg: UGA scores first and starts a rout early, but a lethargic 2Q with some penalties keeps the score down. We use at least 5 running backs, 9 receivers catch a ball including 3 TEs, and Puglisi throws a couple of passes. 43-10 Bulldogs.
Nick: By far the biggest game of the week, we finally get a chance to see the Dawgs in action. All eyes will be on Gunner and how he controls the offense with the new weapons we brought in. The receivers cannot possibly be worse than last season (I hope), and neither can the offensive line (I hope). The Dawgs hit some explosive plays early before Kirby goes into “burn out the clock mode” while the defense stays steady as always. Georgia 38 Marshall 10
Seth: Marshall has a new coach and 74 new starters after a mass exodus so severe they had to decline their bowl invitation last year. If this one is in any doubt by the second quarter, it may be a rough transition to the Stockton era. I’ll be watching the o-line closely and hoping to see third-stringers on both sides of the ball in the second half. I think Georgia covers the extremely large spread, 52-10.
LugnutDawg: Georgia 35, Marshall 7.
We’d love to get your picks in the comments, along with any other miscellaneous thoughts you’ve got regarding the upcoming season, or life its own self. This is a tailgate after all, so feel free to
