Michigan State 2025-2026 Season
Overall Record: 17-9
Big 10 Record: 8-7
Previous 3 Games
2/22: W – 66 – 60 vs Ohio State @ Home
2/17: W – 82 – 59 vs UCLA @ Home
2/13: L – 71 – 92 vs Wisconsin @ Away
Michigan State Personnel
Starters
Bench
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 11
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 120.9 (42) – Big 10 Only: 114.8 (7)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.7 (266) – Big 10 Only: 65.1 (11)
Average Possession Length: 17.6 (195) – Big 10 Only: 18 (6)
Effective Field Goal%: 53.1 (105) – Big 10 Only: 53.2 (9)
Offensive Rebound%: 38.9 (5) – Big 10 Only: 37.7 (2)
Three Point%: 35.2 (111) – Big 10 Only: 34.6 (9)
Two Point %: 53.3 (117) – Big 10 Only: 54 (11)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 92.4 (6) – Big 10 Only: 99.5 (2)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.7 (266) – Big 10 Only: 65.1 (11)
Average Possession Length: 18.3 (336) – Big 10 Only: 19 (16)
Effective Field Goal%: 46.9 (22) – Big 10 Only: 47.3 (2)
Offensive Rebound%: 22.2 (1) – Big 10 Only: 21.7 (1)
Three Point%: 31 (40) – Big 10 Only: 30.8 (3)
Two Point %: 47.2 (34) – Big 10 Only: 48.1 (2)
Key Stat for Purdue
(Per KenPom.com – Big 10 Rank in ())
*Note: I’m only using Big 10 stats for this section because I think it better represents how both teams are currently playing.
Offense
Efficiency
Purdue Offense: 122 (3)
Michigan State Defense: 99.5 (2)
Thoughts:
This is a battle of styles.
Purdue is the skilled, efficient offensive machine. Michigan State is built to throw sand into the gears of opposing offenses. This is an old-school Michigan State team. They want to bully teams away from the basket, bump every cutter, contest every jumper, and rebound every miss. When they do that, it’s tough to beat them.
Purdue’s offense got its hands dirty early against Indiana and found some easy buckets around the basket for the first time in a long time. Can they do the same against an exponentially more physical Spartan team, or do they revert to the mid-range heavy attack that can bog down when shooting goes cold?
Defense
Turnover %
Purdue Defense: 16.7 (4)
Michigan State Offense: 18.6 (18)
Thoughts:
Getting enough possessions to beat Michigan State can be an issue. They are built to dominate the glass on both ends of the court. Purdue has to compete on the glass, but the Spartans are going to do what they do. One place Purdue can recoup possessions is with its newfound defensive pressure. When players other than Jeremy Fears handle the ball, turnovers can happen.
Purdue needs to make them happen and turn them into points.
Brief Thoughts
Toughness
That’s the thought. Michigan State challenges a team’s toughness, and if they don’t respond, it’s a wrap. They are the prototypical basketball bully. If you let them bully you, they will, and they’ll win the game. That mindset manifests on the boards, where they’re the fifth-best offensive rebounding team in the nation and the best defensive rebounding team.
Oscar Cluff and TKR are going to have their hands full holding off Kohler and Cooper. The guards have to box out because Michigan State will send Coen Carr and Jordan Scott to the offensive glass as well. This has to be a team effort on the glass.
Michigan State’s offense isn’t pretty, but it can be brutally effective. They put the ball in the hands of Fears, get something going to the rim, and then swarm the basket if it doesn’t fall. They’re not a particularly good shooting team, but Jaxon Kohler’s ability to pick and pop is the only thing that concerns me other than the offensive glass. The Spartans are almost impossible to beat when they’re hitting from the outside. Purdue has to stay attached to Kohler on ball screens because he loves to run the pick-and-pop with Fears. If I’m being real, the Boilermakers are probably going to need Jaxon to miss a couple open shots, because he’ll probably get a few.
On the other end of the court, it’s all about making shots. If this is a low-scoring game, Michigan State is the prohibitive favorite in my book. They’ve held their last two opponents to 59 (UCLA) and 60 (OSU) points, respectively. The Boilermakers need to get this thing into the 70’s, maybe even the 80s. For that to happen, the “Big 3” needs to repeat their performance against Indiana, where Braden, Fletcher, and TKR all showed up and led the way in scoring. I don’t think CJ and Gicarri are going to win this thing shooting wing jump shots.
Purdue’s veteran leaders have to lead.
Predictions
KenPom
Purdue: 74
Michigan State: 69
Drew
Purdue: 78
Michigan State: 67
Looking Into My Crystal Ball
Just when I thought I was out, this Purdue team pulled me back in with its performance against Indiana. That’s the team I’ve been waiting to see all season. This is a veteran team. I think they have coasted at times this season. Now that the finish line is within sight, it’s time for them to start kicking and show they have another gear. I feel like the last three halves of basketball have been some of the best of the season.
That continues tonight.
