When Bruce Pearl announced his retirement in a dimly lit video from what looked like a recreation of his office on a sound stage, it threw the SEC and greater College Basketball community into a tizzy. After all, Pearl had been at the helm on the plains for 11 years and breathed a level of life into Auburn Basketball the school had never seen before.
For 8 years starting with the 2017-18 season, Auburn averaged over 25 wins, including averaging 12 wins in the SEC each year and finished the run with an average of
22nd in KenPom. All of those numbers improve if you give a mulligan for the COVID season in 2020-21.
So the train was on the tracks and humming. Auburn had just spent most of the year as a national title contender, they rebuilt the roster through the transfer portal, and then in September he handed to keys over to his son, Steven.
The roster wasn’t bad, but wasn’t as elite as it was the year before. So a drop off was expected regardless of the coach. And the schedule did them no favors. The Tigers were competent, but struggled to win and close out games in conference play. The offense was rarely the problem, but the defense slumped to the worst since 2017, and Auburn failed to make the NCAA Tournament.
There were teams pitching their inclusion, but blowout losses to Michigan, Arizona and Purdue in the non-conference slate, and 8 losses in their final 10 SEC games sealed their fate. In an attempt to salvage the season, Pearl accepted an invitation to the NIT and won the tournament. Now we’ll see if he is able to turn that run into some momentum for the 2026-27 season.
Previous SEC Previews:
- 13. Georgia Bulldogs: 6-12
- 14.South Carolina Gamecocks, 4-14
- 15. Ole Miss Rebels: 4-14
- 16. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-15
Auburn Tigers
- Last season: 22 – 16 (7-11 in conference) #36 overall
- The Masses Prediction: 9th in conference
- SEC Media Pick: 9th in conference
- Analytics Average: 8th in conference, 26th overall
HEAD COACH: Steven Pearl | 2nd Season, 22-16
Steven Pearl was handed the keys to a roster built by his father, within a program humming as much as any program can run, leaned into continuity and the portal, and fell flat. I wouldn’t call season one a failure by any stretch, there have been way worse first seasons than a 57% win rate and an NIT Championship. But I think you’d stop well short of calling it a success also. And mostly because the program wasn’t missing the NCAA Tournament, and were winning more than 12 games in SEC play, and didn’t accomplish either last year.
Steven Pearl’s Auburn v1.0 had no issues scoring the ball, but they were brimming with offensive talent. He was dubbed the defensive coordinator in the last few years under his dad, but could seem to get his team to defend. The Tigers did have some great wins, they beat Florida at Florida, and beat St. John’s on a neutral court.
They played in 16 games decided by less than 10 points and went 8-8. They lost 8 games to high major teams by 10 points or more, and won 7 games by 10 points or more (also to high major teams).
Even in the NIT, they didn’t play a single high major basketball team. They beat 56th rated Tulsa in overtime and 72nd rated Nevada by 6 points at home.
Basically, they were 11-16 against high major teams. Against top 40 teams they were 6-14. These are just not the types of numbers Auburn fans are accustomed to. Steven Pearl better get things moving in the right direction, or Auburn fans might be asking themselves if they were stuck with a nepo-hire who wasn’t ready for big time coaching.
It really is remarkable how much Bruce Pearl changed what Auburn basketball was about. I’ve been writing these previews for longer than Auburn has been good, and I was even bold enough to say Pearl’s seat might be getting warm when we were previewing his 2017-18 team. That team went 26-8 and landed a four seed in the SEC Tournament. It’s been all excellent since.
LOST PRODUCTION
5th in % minutes, 65.49% | 5th in % points, 62.94% | 5th in % possessions, 63.94%
Like everyone other than Florida, Auburn lost a lot. Keyshawn Murphy graduated, after averaging more than 10 points per game last year as the 5th leading scorer on the team. Then 5 other of the top 7 scorers entered the transfer portal. Keyshawn Hall was the leading scorer, but he’s always been a guy who could get buckets, and rarely been a guy who impacts winning. Now he’s at St. John’s playing for one of the winningest coaches of all time, and the current active leader for most wins in Rick Pitino.
Then 4th leading scorer Elyjah Freeman transferred to Texas, 6th leading scorer Sebastian Williams-Adams transferred to Vanderbilt, 7th leading scorer Filip Jovic transferred to UCLA, and then 8th leading scorer was Kaden Magwood who transferred to Murray State. Magwood only appeared in 20 games, but Auburn really only went 7 deep with any regularity. That fact was also something that flew in the face of many Bruce Pearl led Auburn rosters, which typically would go at least 9 or 10 deep.
Steven Pearl was able to bring back two of his biggest pieces from this past season in second leading scorer Tahaad Pettiford and third leading scorer Kevin Overton.
Pettiford was a breakout performer in his freshman season, but he was surrounded by veterans in a team built to function largely around Johni Broome. Pettiford averaged 11.3 points as a freshman, but bumped that to 15 points per contest in leading Auburn to the Final Four. Coming into the season he was expected to be a breakout candidate… or at least breakout more than he did the spring before. Instead, Pettiford took a bit of a secondary role to Hall.
He’s still more than capable of completely taking over a game. Pettiford’s microwaveable offense turned into a big driver for the Auburn offense, and one of the reasons despite their struggles, they still finished top 15 in offensive efficiency. But his efficiency numbers on the season dropped from his freshman season, and those weren’t even that great. The main culprit for his efficiency dip: three point shooting. As a freshman he made 70 threes in 191 attempts for 36%, then as a sophomore he tried 252 threes and made 73, which is 29%. Bottom line, Pettiford has to shoot the ball better.
Pettiford’s backcourt mate was Kevin Overton, the two time transfer from Drake and Texas Tech. Overton’s career has been an interesting one, he’s a good defender and then last season he fixed his one weakness which was outside shooting consistency. He shot it well enough as a freshman at Drake, but then at Texas Tech his inconsistent stroke led to inconsistent minutes. But all that changed last year when he sank 41.3% from outside on 230 tries. And three quarters of his shot attempts were jumpers. Auburn doesn’t need Overton to be anything more than what he was last year, a consistent defender and maker of outside shots.
When Pearl went into the transfer portal to flesh out the rest of his roster, he seemed to pivot away from the types of players his dad typically filled the roster with. Pearl the Elder routinely went for athleticism, often borderline problematic players. Auburn was known for its chaotic locker rooms, a prime example being what he got out of Chad Baker-Mazara.
Enter Owen Freeman, a high scorer while playing for Fran McCaffrey, Freeman struggled to find his way at Creighton. He’s not the most fleet-footed big man, and relies on good position and soft touch to get his buckets. He’s also a bit of a question mark defensively. Another thing that hasn’t fit for Auburn in recent years. But if he can regain his scoring touch he’ll be an asset.
Auburn is also counting on some international players being able to play, especially Mantas Rubštavičius. A 24 year old wing, Rubštavičius comes from the premier league in Lithuania, and he’s been a professional since 2018. Honestly he’s the exact type of player the NCAA should be denying eligibility to. But they should, and probably clear Narcisse Ngoy. As a 22 year old, Ngoy has played as high as the second tier in France.
One of the important portal additions is Thomas Dowd, a double double machine while playing the combo forward spot at Troy, Pearl and Auburn are hoping his production can translate. He’s a respectable shooter, but his value comes his versatility and ability to rebound. If Dowd doesn’t work out, he’ll have Adam Olsen, from South Alabama there to help out. Olsen has similar size but shoots it better, but I worry about his foot speed defensively.
I also think Bukky Oboye should be able to help, he’s a mobile and active big. If Freeman or Ngoy aren’t quite what Auburn wants, Oboye should be at worst serviceable. He’s certainly capable of being a good defender and can alter shots around the rim.
But so much of what Auburn is and can be revolve around Pettiford and Overton.
Pearl went a little lighter on the scheduling this season in compared to last, but not by a lot. 7 home quad 4 level games, and a neutral site game against Middle Tennessee are all 8 games the Tigers should win. Then there are three games which are going to be winnable but more in the toss up category, with a home contest against Arizona to kick the real competition off. Arizona should be a top 10 to 15 level team this year, but you get them on your home floor and you get them early. If you can win that game it could set the tone for the season. Then they’re off to the Player’s Era 8 bracket, with a first round matchup against West Virginia. Game 2 will be either Kansas or UNLV, then the opposite side of the bracket has Florida, Notre Dame, Houston and Rutgers. Then a road trip to Clemson for the ACC-SEC Challenge, and a neutral site matchup against the always plucky Wisconsin Badgers. The goal here should be 10-11 wins.
The conference slate isn’t bad. Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU as your home and homes is enough of a mix where you could see Auburn winning 5 of those games. But it’s also the SEC, so 3-3 is probably more likely. A key will be getting at least one against Alabama, as the most likely tournament team of the three. They also get Florida at home, Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, and Oklahoma, all teams that project into the field of 76 in early margins. The road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arkansas, Kentucky is pretty brutal. You have to beat South Carolina, and probably want to get at least one more to be in the range for an 8-10 league record.
THE RULING
It didn’t take long for the sheen of Bruce Pearl to wear off expectations on the plains of Alabama. Steven Pearl is a second year coach, and no matter how many years you’ve spent being groomed in the second chair next to your dad, there’s no experience like actually being the guy.
I say this because inevitably there was going to be a drop off, if only because you were going from a guy with a pedigree of 30 plus years of being a head coach, including more than half of those years as the head coach at a high major school in the SEC, to a coach with none of that experience. Steven Pearl may become a great basketball coach, he might even be a really really good one right now. He was just up against the wall last year in his first year, with his father’s roster, and a talented but erratic basketball team.
But Bruce in charge of the same team last year and they’re better. Just the consistency from game to game is probably the difference between 21 or 22 regular seasons wins, and 16.
The question now becomes about growth. How much more “ready” is Steven to compete with his roster in year 2?
But aside from his own preparation, the fact he seems to have moved in a different direction from past Auburn rosters has piqued my interest in how this season goes. Attempting to resurrect the career of Owen Freeman, trying to get transitive production from a First team All Sun Belt four-man, in Thomas Dowd. Then of course if Mantas Rubštavičius can get cleared.
At worst, Auburn should be able to score the basketball. The key will be getting stops. As a freshman, Auburn did what they could to hide Pettiford defensively. He’s small, and while he’s quick, he often gets caught in screens and isn’t physical at the point of attack. When Johni Broom is cleaning up messes around the rim, you can afford that level of defense from your point guard. But last season Auburn didn’t have any rim deterrents. And to be clear, Owen Freeman is not that guy either.
Bukky Oboye and Narcisses Ngoy both are far superior defenders and have reputations of being good at the rim defensively. If Freeman is on the floor more than the combination of the other two, you might see the Tigers go scorched earth on offense, but with Pettiford and Overton, Ngoy and Oboye might actually be more valuable. Especially if you’re able to get shooting and consistent production from the wing and combo forward spots. Dowd, Olsen, Rubštavičius, and even Kimble and Utah State transfer Kolby King look capable of handing that end.
The roster, and talent, at least if everyone is eligible, is top half of the SEC quality. The question comes down to the head coach. Pearl had his momenets last year, but he’s still going up against far more experienced coaches with a long history of winning. While Pearl is learning on the job. He’s got a roster good enough to tuck into the conversation for a top 4 finish, it’s just hard to trust him the way it was so easy to trust his father.
My Results: Auburn Tigers — 12th in Conference, 7-11
About the preview: a number of respected basketball bloggers were asked to submit one pick for the entire league schedule game by game. The game by game option allows us to account for the unbalanced schedule when addressing any kind of power rankings. Each set of picks are reflected in “the Masses” picks. Included in “the Masses” are various SEC media members who made picks at my request, as well as additional credit given to the analytics projections, and national media outlet predictions.
Additionally, instead of relying solely on KenPom.com for the analytics site projections, we’re taking the average of the four main sites (EvanMiya.com, BartTorvik.com, Haslametrics.com, and KenPom.com) to give a closer consensus picture. These are weighted a touch for reliability.
The projections: In an attempt to be as accurate as we could be, we increased the amount of analytics used to make individual projections which influenced how these teams slotted in order. Matt Watkins used an in-depth method for projecting the entire SEC transfer list, we then mixed in EvanMiya.com’s BPR projections, and BartTorvik.com’s preseason individual projections to round out the expected production based upon how each coach routinely uses his rotations.
GLOSSARY
* – an asterisk denotes a walk-on player
GP – Games Played
%min – percentage of total available minutes played, does not account for time missed due to injury
%poss – percentage of team possessions the player is responsible for ending a possession, whether by making a shot, missing a shot not rebounded by the offense or committing a turnover. For returning players this is noted as a percentage of total team possessions. For newcomers it was total possessions when that player was on the floor, better known as Usage Rate.
ORtg – Offensive Rating, similar to a points per possession but averaged out over 100 possessions. So it’s how many points a player would score if they were responsible for 100 possessions.
BPR – Bayseian Performance Rating, a single player efficiency metric created by Evan Miyakawa to determine both offensive and defensive impact when a player is on the floor.
PAR – Points Above Replacement, a Rock M+ proprietary rating measuring projected on-off impact adjusted for time on the floor.
PPG – Points Per Game, RPG – Rebounds Per Game, APG – Assists Per Game: All traditional statistics used to measure player production.
For newcomer player rankings, we used EvanMiya.com’ s rankings for transfers, and 247sports.com ‘s Composite Rating for Freshmen and Junior College signees.
