Welcome to our Lakers Season Preview Series! For the next several weeks, we’ll be writing columns every weekday breaking down the biggest questions we have about every player the Lakers added this offseason. Today, we look at Matisse Thybulle.
When Marcus Smart signed with the Houston Rockets over the summer, the Lakers lost more than just their best perimeter defender. They lost their defensive identity, spirit and chaos agent.
Regardless of why Smart wasn’t retained, it was clear the Lakers had to
find a way to replicate the tangible and intangible value he added.
Walker Kessler being the interior anchor will go a long way, but to help shore up the perimeter, the Lakers will be betting on Matisse Thybulle being Smart’s proxy. As they did with Smart, the Lakers are adding Thybulle in hopes he stays healthy and rejuvenated while playing for a team with championship aspirations.
The gamble, albeit mostly safe given Thybulle signed at the minimum, is one that could pay off huge, or one that forces the Lakers back on the market in search of help.
What is his best-case scenario?
At the top of Thybulle’s priority list for a successful season is to be on the floor.
Although his reputation of being injury-prone is probably overstated at this point, he has recently simply been unable to stay healthy. This is a major reason why he was even available at the price the Lakers paid.
Thybulle has appeared in just a combined 45 games over the past two seasons. Fortunately, reports say he is fully healthy ahead of the new season.
If that is the case and he can remain that way for the majority of the year, that could be a major development for the Lakers’ defensive upside. Because when he’s on the floor, there are few — if any — more disruptive players in the NBA.
When comparing his activity to other wings, Thybulle has finished lower than the 98th percentile in steal percentage once, and never worse than the 92nd percentile in block percentage in his career.
Perhaps more important than Thybulle’s staggering disruption ability is the impact he has on his entire team’s defense.
Last year, the Portland Trail Blazers were an incredible 11.1 points better defensively with him on the floor than off. They also forced teams to turn over the ball 6.4% more in those minutes as well (the best on/off differential in the league in that category).
The other area Thybulle must prove proficient in if he hopes to bid for a major role is his 3-point shot. After early career struggles with his outside game, Thybulle has steadily improved. He has converted his chances at a 37% clip over the last three seasons.
If he can keep defenses honest and help shore up the perimeter on the other end, a best-case outcome could see Thybulle have a Smart-type year that the Lakers need.
What is his worst-case scenario?
If the key for a successful season for Thybulle is remaining healthy, the inverse is missing time again.
Although early indications are that he’ll enter the year ready to go, history has shown there may be a higher likelihood of follow-up incidents occurring. If they do, and he misses significant time, Thybulle could end up being a wasted roster spot.
Beyond health concerns, there is also a scenario where he experiences some defensive slippage after two years of lengthy absence. If his superpower is diminished at all, that could drastically impact his value.
The same could be said about his aforementioned improved 3-point stroke.
If he suffers any type of regression or is simply seen as a non-threat by the opposition, Thybulle could tumble down the depth chart. The prime example of this is Jarred Vanderbilt’s diminished role playing under JJ Redick.
This could especially be the case with the number of wings who will all be vying for minutes already on the roster. All of whom are younger and may be hungrier to secure a future in Los Angeles than the 29-year-old.
What is his most likely role on the team?
The safest outcome for Thybulle is likely somewhere in the middle.
Even if there is some slippage or games missed baked into the contract, he still possesses the highest upside to be the 3-and-D answer the team needs to surround Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves.
If he doesn’t reach that ceiling, he still likely will be able to play a similar role as he did in Portland. Whether that’s him being the steady veteran who could mentor the young wings on and off the court or being trusted to defend the opposing team’s best backcourt players, Thybulle’s floor will be comfortably high as long as he can stay on it.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social
