With the end of the offseason inching closer and training camp now merely weeks away, I can speak for myself when I say that I’m ready to get hurt again by watching another season of our favorite hockey team try to play hockey at the highest level.
The New Jersey Devils rookies will report to camp, followed by the veterans and an abbreviated preseason as this will be the first season of the 84-game regular season schedule under the new CBA. Which means that it won’t be too long before you’re inundated
with all sorts of season preview content.
Before the season begins, I do like to take a look at what the sportsbooks think when it comes to the odds. Not necessarily because I’m looking to place a wager as I am a terrible bettor…..my recent excursion to Harrah’s Atlantic City can attest to that…..but because the sportsbooks aren’t typically in the business of trying to be wrong. The old saying is that the casinos in Las Vegas didn’t build themselves, and while there are instances where the sportsbooks completely miss the mark (the Vegas Golden Knights in their inaugural season and the year Leicester City won the Premier League being two of the more prominent examples over the last decade), they’re generally closer to being right more often than not if you want to use it as a sort of predictive market. The books are trying to set the most accurate number they can with the data and information available to them and mitigate risk on their end, and they have all access to all sorts of resources that the general public does not.
I thought for this week, it would be worthwhile to take a look at the odds and what they’re trying to tell us about what they think the Devils will be this season. For the purposes of this article, odds are courtesy of DraftKings and are subject to change.
Metropolitan Division Winner Odds
Carolina +100
Washington +370
New Jersey +750
Philadelphia 11/1
Columbus 15/1
Pittsburgh 16/1
NY Islanders 25/1
NY Rangers 25/1
An experienced sports bettor would know to shop around for the best price if there was a particular team they were looking to bet, but going from sportsbook to sportsbook, the general consensus is that Carolina is the team to beat in the division, Washington is the team with the best chance of dethroning them, and the Devils have the slight edge over the rest of the also rans in the Metropolitan when it comes to who will be that third guaranteed playoff team out of the division.
I would agree that Carolina, the defending Stanley Cup champions and the most consistent team in the division over the last decade, deserves the distinction of being the team to beat. They have earned the benefit of the doubt thanks to their body of work over the last several years and suffered no significant losses off of their roster outside of maybe goalltender Frederik Andersen. I would also agree with Washington being the #2 team in the Metro, as I don’t think any team has had a better offseason than the Capitals. Adding two top six forwards in Alex Tuch and Jordan Kyrou and retaining the services of an all-time great in Alex Ovechkin will earn that distinction.
I’m not entirely sure that I agree that the Devils are the third best team after finishing 7th last year and struggling to put the puck in the back of the net. If anything, I view the endorsement of the Devils as an indictment of everybody else, if that makes sense.
I will say that I do think that outside of Washington and maybe the Rangers, the Devils have done more to improve in the division this offseason than any other team in the Metro. The Flyers did take a big swing with the Leo Carlsson offer sheet, and they did improve their backup goaltender spot with the Joseph Woll trade. But they didn’t ultimately get Carlsson, and would it be all that surprising with how random goaltending is if Dan Vladar took a step back? A full season of Porter Martone should help, and I would say the same for Matvei Michkov if the Flyers don’t run him out of town first, but I do think the Devils and Flyers should probably be closer than they actually are. And that’s not even considering someone else in the division putting together a sustained run during the season to force their way into the playoffs like the Penguins did last year. Columbus made their seemingly annual run but came up short, and the Islanders held a playoff spot for much of the year before a late season collapse.
The Metropolitan Division Point Totals
Carolina – 107.5
Washington – 99.5
New Jersey – 95.5
Philadelphia – 93.5
Pittsburgh – 91.5
Columbus – 91.5
NY Islanders – 88.5
NY Rangers – 86.5
Those point totals might seem high for everyone, but keep in mind. The regular season is now 84 games, so that adds a possible four points to the total that a team can earn over the course of the season.
I will say these numbers being closer than the divisional odds aligns with what I previously said about the gap between the Devils and the rest of the Metropolitan Division being closer than it appears to be.
Will The Devils Make The Playoffs?
Yes -120
No -110
The most obvious playoff teams in either conference are significant favorites, as Carolina is -1100 and Colorado is -1800, just to give context. So the fact that the Devils odds are basically the same either way suggests its probably a coin flip at this point whether or not the Devils were to make it.
The Devils have the 8th best odds in the Eastern Conference simply to make the playoffs. In addition to being behind Carolina and Washington (-235), they’re also behind Florida (-1000), Tampa Bay (-390), Montreal (-180), Buffalo (-125), and Toronto (-125). I don’t know that I agree about Buffalo or Toronto being a playoff team this upcoming season, and full disclosure, I have a bet with our old pal CJ Turturo that Buffalo will NOT be a playoff team again this year, but that’s why they play the games.
What About Winning the Eastern Conference?
Carolina +300
Florida +320
Tampa Bay +600
Washington +900
Montreal 13/1
New Jersey 17/1
Buffalo 17/1
Toronto 18/1
Ottawa 20/1
Philadelphia 28/1
The Devils currently sit tied for 6th in terms of the best odds to win the Eastern Conference, which really only reaffirms a common theme throughout this article that the books expect the Devils to be a borderline playoff team.
Odds to Win the Stanley Cup
Florida +650
Carolina +650
Colorado +700
Edmonton +800
Vegas +850
Tampa Bay 12/1
Minnesota 13/1
Dallas 14/1
Washington 17/1
Montreal 22/1
Anaheim 28/1
Utah, New Jersey, Los Angeles, Buffalo 30/1
Final Thoughts
The purpose of this article isn’t to offer betting advice, although the great thing about this country is that if you vehemently disagree with any of the odds listed, you happen to live in the right jurisdiction, and you’re of legal age, you’re allowed to put your hard-earned money where your mouth is and try to prove the sportsbooks wrong.
The purpose of this article was to come up with a takeaway from the oddsmakers. And what they’re telling you is that they think this Devils team is a borderline playoff team. They think the Devils, assuming things go right, will be the 6th or 7th best team in the Eastern Conference. That would not make them a Stanley Cup contender, but if the Devils play well and look the part, they won’t remain 30/1 either in terms of odds to win the Cup. The odds will likely settle in on a tier closer to where Tampa Bay and Washington are if and when they do that.
Of course, the books can be wrong. The books have generally overrated this iteration of the Devils since their big season in 2022-23.
They likely expect that if Jack Hughes remains healthy, this is a no-doubt about it playoff team. For what its worth, the Devils were 34-24-3 with him last season (.582 point percentage) vs. 8-13 without him (.381). Jack is clearly a difference maker where he makes an impact when he plays, and his absence is felt as well. A .582 point percentage extrapolated over an 82 game season last year would’ve still had them come up short in the Eastern Conference, but adding a healthy Jack probably flips a couple contests in the Metropolitan Division (where they went 7-17-2 last year) and Eastern Conference (20-27-3) that they lost last season. Or if nothing else, it gets them to overtime more often than they did last season (16 times, which was among the fewest in the league).
The Devils have not had the depth the last few seasons to overcome a Jack Hughes injury. Add on top of that poor goaltending in two of the last three seasons (Vanecek/Schmid/Daws in 23-24, Markstrom last year). Add on top of that that last year’s team was bottom two in terms of shot percentage and finishing their chances. All of that led to the Devils finishing where they did on the outside looking in. Yes, they have ground to make up in a competitive Eastern Conference if they want to get back to the playoffs, but they’ve managed to dig their way out of deeper holes than this before.
Whether or not Sunny Mehta has made enough changes to improve the Devils is up for debate. I wrote this article a few days before the team signed Anthony Mantha, who should help the team finish more of their chances. I do think their depth pieces now are better than what they had in previous seasons, but I’ve also thought that in the past only to be disappointed with late career Evgenii Dadonov, Tomas Tatar, and Tomas Nosek, among others.
The Devils are probably better on paper than they were last year. They’re probably better on whatever spreadsheet and model Sunny Mehta uses, at least compared to last year’s version. And the oddsmakers seem to think they’re better as well. It remains to be seen whether or not they’re actually better or if we’re being set up for disappointment once again.
The books have been wrong in the past with this Devils team, but we’ll see if they’re ultimately right in 2026-27.
