If you arrived from the future to tell Yankees fans after the team’s embarrassing elimination in the ALDS last October that the only major external acquisition the team made was Ryan Weathers, you’d probably be burned at the stake.
It seemed inconceivable after the team regressed from a more competitive-than-it-appeared World Series defeat to getting decimated in the ALDS by the rival Blue Jays that they would have a quiet offseason. But aside from retaining several free agents, there has been almost
nothing during this slow offseason that, frankly, revolved around the free agency of Cody Bellinger, who didn’t re-sign until after Scott Boras ran out of potential suitors to continue asking for seven years.
There is still time remaining for moves on the margins, but barring a surprising blockbuster trade, this is most of the roster we will have going forward. It’s disappointing and frustrating that a team that will yield a near-$400 million total payroll and luxury tax will have sat on its hands in this way, but how bad is it?
How bad is running it back? The 2025 Yankees were an inherently flawed bunch, but they weren’t lacking in talent. Aaron Boone said he believed this was the best team he had managed, and frankly, he might’ve had a point.
The total of 94 wins was less than the 2018, 2019, and 2022 teams achieved. However, those teams got to feast on dreadful teams in the basement of the AL East, or—in the case of 2022—rode a red-hot start and limped into the playoffs. The first two teams lacked a bona fide ace, although Luis Severino and James Paxton tried to masquerade as one at their best.
The 2025 Yankees had Max Fried, who finished fourth in Cy Young voting in an excellent, consistent season. They had a second All-Star hurler in Carlos Rodón and, by playoff time, unveiled a highly promising flamethrowing rookie.
When you compare the 2025 team to the 2024 team that won the pennant, you may find that the 2025 club was superior and just faced a tougher path. Juan Soto was irreplaceable for the Yankees, but the 2025 Bombers had Cam Schlittler pitching their Game 3s compared to Clarke Schmidt, who had not fully rounded into form after a midseason lat injury.
The 2024 bullpen was probably better thanks to the likes of Tommy Kahnle and Jake Cousins, but when you look at the lineup depth, it’s night and day. Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo were so bad that they were out of a job on Opening Day of the following year, while their spots in the lineup were filled by Trent Grisham and Ben Rice.
Regardless of all of this, the results don’t lie. The Blue Jays embarrassed the Yankees in the ALDS, made some additions (although left fans wanting more), and the Yankees stood pat. How can that be acceptable?
Well, in re-signing Bellinger, Grisham, and steady platoon bat Amed Rosario, the Yankees will completely return the best offense in baseball in 2025. While the Dodgers’ addition of Kyle Tucker probably makes them the top lineup in baseball, the Yankees have the depth and high-end talent to replicate what they did last season.
According to FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, the Yankees are second in projected offensive WAR, slightly ahead of Toronto and behind the Dodgers. Here’s how the individual projections stack up:
Aaron Judge: 172 wRC+
Ben Rice: 125 wRC+ (107 games)
Cody Bellinger: 118 wRC+
Giancarlo Stanton: 115 wRC+ (89 games)
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 113 wRC+
Trent Grisham: 110 wRC+
Jasson Domínguez: 108 wRC+ (46 games)
Austin Wells: 102 wRC+
Anthony Volpe: 95 wRC+
Ryan McMahon: 92 wRC+
Note that projections are inherently pessimistic due to all the things that can go wrong for a player. Ever since Judge ascended into another realm of hitting dominance, he’s easily cleared 200 on an annual basis. If he falls that far down, it would be a sign of Father Time catching up to the 34-year-old. There’s also reason to believe Rice will play more, Chisholm will produce more, and Grisham will produce similar to his 2025 levels due to his promising peripherals.
The holes in the lineup are on the left side of the infield, but neither is catastrophically bad on offense. There’s considerable upside in this lineup and a decent floor, even if some players regress.
At least offensively, running it back isn’t a bad thing. Sure, the team could’ve attempted to fill the remaining holes by pursuing the likes of Bo Bichette or Alex Bregman, but the two have awkward fits, whether it’s their hitting profile (Bregman) or declining athleticism and defense (Bichette).
One big feature that the offense will have on Opening Day that hasn’t been as much of a feature in the past, however, is a deep bench. While the last few seasons have seen the team give way too many at-bats to the likes of Oswald Peraza and DJ LeMahieu, everyone on the Yankees’ bench will have a true purpose in 2026. Rosario is a lefty killer, Domínguez brings speed as a pinch-runner and can reliably hit righties, the speedy, versatile José Caballero will already be in there to fill in for the injured Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera should be back from injury and can play everywhere on the diamond, and J.C. Escarra is a superb defensive catcher.
The pitching side is where we can be more squeamish. Still, there’s upside in the rotation if the team can get better injury luck on that front. Rodón will miss Opening Day, but he’s stated that he plans on being ready to start building up in March, and that should put his timeline around May 1. Gerrit Cole may not be far behind.
With Cole and Rodón on the mend, the team will lean heavily on Fried and Schlittler while requiring decent length and reliability from Luis Gil, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, and, in case of injury, Ryan Yarbrough. By the time summer roles around, the team could have the best problem imaginable in sports: too many quality starters.
Now, the biggest risk remaining is the bullpen, and there’s no sugarcoating that. David Bednar and Tim Hill will be reliable, but the team will be hoping for more consistent performance from the likes of Fernando Cruz and Camilo Doval and will be depending on Matt Blake’s annual “diamond in the rough” sweepstakes in spring. Could Rule 5 pick Cade Winquest be a candidate? Or will a non-roster invitee emerge like Lucas Luetge in 2021 and Ian Hamilton in 2023?
The Yankees will be entering 2026 with a higher luxury tax payroll than they did in 2025, despite not meaningfully improving the roster. As an old skipper often said, it’s not what you want, but the team the Yanks are running back has a real chance to perform better than they did last year.
