Despite dropping their last two contests, the Portland Trail Blazers are in the midst of a hot streak. They have won seven of their last ten games and are just coming off of a five-game win streak. Their
three losses are to the Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks – both top two teams in their respective conferences – and to the Golden State Warriors, a game Portland played without their best player in Deni Avdija.
With the wins getting Portland ever closer to being .500 again, they find themselves 19-22 and currently holding the ninth seed in the Western Conference. With half of the NBA season in the books, being firmly in the Play-In race is a solid place for the young Blazers to be. Making the Play-In would be a massive step forward for Portland after spending the last four seasons solidly in the lottery.
With the second half of the 2025-26 NBA season still to play, what do Portland’s chances of making it into the postseason look like? What is a realistic expectation for a team this young?
Looking at the teams below the Blazers in the standings, some things are immediately obvious. First, the New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, and Utah Jazz who make up the bottom of the conference are not a threat to overtake Portland. The Dallas Mavericks sit at 12th, but far enough behind that it seems unlikely that they can challenge for that spot. That leaves just the Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies as teams who could bump the Blazers out.
Memphis currently sits 10th in the Western Conference, 1.5 games behind Portland. They were above the Blazers in the standings before this current hot stretch. Los Angeles is 8-2 in their last 10 games and are recovering from a dismal start to the season. They have been gaining ground in the Play-In race recently, but are still three games behind Portland. Both teams provide a real threat to Portland’s position, but both would have to pass the Blazers to cause them to miss the Play-In entirely.
So far this season, Portland’s biggest weakness may end up being one of their biggest strengths down the stretch: health. With all the injuries the Blazers have endured, starting to get some of their key players back could give them a serious boost. Jrue Holiday made his return in Portland’s game against the Knicks after an almost two-month absence. There is still no official timeline on Scoot Henderson, Matisse Thybulle, or Blake Wesley, but getting that trio of guards back would bolster the guard rotation.
However, losing Deni Avdija to a lower back injury in the loss to the Knicks is significant. There has been no timetable given yet for his return, and missing a significant number of games could hurt the Blazers’ chances. This was illustrated by the blowout loss Portland suffered to the Warriors in Avdija’s first absence.
Also working in Portland’s favor is how frontloaded their schedule has been so far this season. They’ve already faced the Thunder four times, the Detroit Pistons twice and had a number of other games against the top teams in the NBA. This means that their schedule gets a lot easier from here on out. In fact, they have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league according to Tankathon.
With a very frontloaded schedule in terms of quality of opponent, multiple games down the stretch against the worst teams in the NBA while avoiding the top teams can lead to a lot of wins. The Blazers being where they are in the standings while surviving one of the NBA’s hardest schedules so far means that theoretically they should earn a lot of extra wins in the second half of the season.
All of this hinges on the severity of Avdija’s injury. He’s been playing at a superstar level so far this season, looking ever-more like a lock for the NBA All-Star game (and may even snag Most Improved Player). We saw how the Blazers looked against the Warriors in his absence. Without Portland’s star in the lineup, there are no easy wins.
Avdija is currently listed as doubtful for the Blazers’s next game against the Atlanta Hawks. That means a short timetable for his return is possible, and he could find himself back in the lineup sooner rather than later.
All to say it looks like Portland might find themselves in the postseason for the first time in five years. That is a massive step forward for such a young team, especially one that has dealt with so many injuries this season.
As it currently stands, the Blazers would have a home game against Memphis in the first Play-In game. They would then await the loser of the Houston Rockets and Golden State, both teams Portland has had success against so far this season. While an actual NBA Playoff berth seems unlikely, it is possible halfway through the season, and that is something to celebrate.
