What may end up being the most significant game in the B1G conference slate from a national perspective will see the #1 Michigan Wolverines visit Mackey Arena to take on the #10 Purdue Boilermakers. It is the first time since the 2004/2005 season that the #1 team will visit Mackey Arena and the ninth time overall. The Boilers are currently 2.5 games back of the Wolverines and this will mark the only meeting between the two during the regular season.
If Purdue wants to win their 27th B1G regular season
title, they will need to win the rest of their games and hope for some help from others. Purdue will also face Indiana, Michigan State, and Wisconsin at home while having to go on the road against Ohio State and Northwestern. That task isn’t out of the realm of possibility and it appears Purdue has rounded the corner on the mid-season struggles that saw them drop three straight games.
Let’s get ahead of the numbers!
Turnover Margin
Purdue is one of the best teams in the country at limiting their turnovers as they average just 9.3 per game, good for 12th in the country. Purdue has lost the turnover battle just eight times all season with the largest margin being just -3 on multiple occasions. This is a simple piece to winning basketball but if you limit the mistakes you make, it forces the opponent to play more efficient basketball than they are typically used to. The issue is Michigan seems to be comfortable playing a lot of different kinds of basketball.
Michigan appears to have an extra gear that they can get to when a game is close or when they are down in the second half of games. Multiple times this season a game has been close with Michigan playing poorly for most of the game and suddenly they sprint out to a 20+ point lead over the span of 8-10 minutes. Lots of times that is an opponent getting out of their comfort zone trying to stay with the Wolverines and turning the ball over. Purdue simply can’t afford to have that happen and, to be frank, Purdue hasn’t really had that problem all season long.
Michigan averages 12.2 turnovers per game, ranking them right in the middle of the NCAA this season. They have, at times, allowed those turnovers to become problems in games and what has allowed opponents to keep the game close. Michigan has had double-digit turnovers in a game sixteen times this season, notably 21 against TCU (67-63), 19 against Nebraska (75-72), and 17 against Wake Forest (85-84 OT), all victories.
Purdue has the ability to play nearly flawless basketball with the experience they have handling the basketball. They’ll need to be near that if they want to beat a team like Michigan and the Wolverines have really only had one tough road game (at MSU). If Purdue wants to beat the #1 team in the country, they’ll need to limit their own turnovers and likely be at least +4 in the turnover margin.
Rebounding Rate
Michigan has one of the nation’s best offenses, ranking #4 on Kenpom and excelling at effective field goal % (58.6%-7th), offensive rebounding % (36.6%-24th), and 2pt % (63%-2nd). However, they are incredible on the defensive end and rank 1st in the country with an elite ability to defend both the arc and the interior. Where they excel is their rebounding where they hold a +10 advantage overall and average nearly 42 rebounds per game.
This is where most teams have gotten themselves into trouble against Michigan. While trying to neutralize that advantage that Michigan holds, they get themselves out of position to get back on the defensive end and Michigan quickly gets the ball up the court for easy scores. It is something that Purdue struggled with at times this season but has apparently shored that up over the last three games through a more concerted effort and intensity by TKR and Oscar Cluff.
When Michigan has truly been elite has been cleaning up their misses and turning them into easy second chance points. That typically comes from their huge front line of Lendeborg (6’9), Johnson (6’9), and Mara (7’3) who each average 7 rebounds per game and overwhelm opponents on both ends. That type of length is atypical for a college team but is something Purdue has used to their own advantage by playing two bigs together most of the season.
Purdue is going to need their trio of bigs to dominate the boards to limit Michigan’s second chance points where the Boiler defense allows just at 26% offensive rebound rate on the defensive end. Purdue also can’t afford to throw everyone at the glass in an effort to steal possessions as Michigan frequently takes those and turns the game into a track meet. This will need to be a game where Purdue grinds it into a half-court, possession limiting game where their efficiency takes over. If they do that and remain even with the Wolverines on the glass, they can win.
Shotting 40%+ From Behind the Arc + Double Digit 3’s
This is likely where the game will be won or lost for the Boilers. They have as elite of a collection of shooters from behind the arc as any team in college basketball. During conference play, Purdue has four players shooting 36% or better from behind the arc while CJ Cox and Jack Benter have seemingly turned their struggles around over the last three games. They are going to need to continue their trend of shooting well to beat the Wolverines.
When Purdue has shot 40% or better from behind the arc, they are 9-0. When they hit double digit threes in a game, they are 12-0. When they do both of those things, they are 5-0 and have an average margin of victory of 31.4. Removing the two victories over mid-majors Eastern Illinois and Evansville, which leaves the victories over Maryland, Auburn, and Iowa, Purdue still has a 26.3 point margin of victory. (If you were wondering, in games where Purdue hits double-digit threes overall, their margin of victory is 21.7)
Now, this isn’t just going to be easy because Michigan’s elite length has allowed them to be the 7th rated 3pt defensive team in the country. They allow just 29.1% from behind the arc and when you add in their 2nd ranked 2pt % defensive of 42.8%, it just makes it so difficult for most teams to be successful over the course of an entire game.
Neutralize the ‘Mara Factor’
What a difference this year is for Aday Mara. A year after being nearly unplayable at UCLA, the 7’3 big man from Spain has looked like a totally different player, largely for the simple reason that he isn’t really asked to do much and has a cast around him that allows him to just do what he does best: protect the rim, rebound the ball on both ends, and shoot shots from inside 6 feet. It’s a simple formula for the big man and one that Michigan has used effectively all season. They haven’t, however, faced a maestro-like point guard like Braden Smith yet.
It will be very interesting to see how Michigan defends Smith. Braden has already shown it is a near death wish to play him in drop coverage. His quick pull up three is as good as any in the country and giving him that space and ability to snake dribble causes all sorts of problems with his elite vision and passing. Jeremy Fears, Jr. and Michigan State made UM bring Mara off the floor at the end of their game because they were able to get themselves back into the game taking advantage of that drop coverage.
Getting Mara off the floor would open up the low-post offense of Cluff and TKR that Michigan hasn’t seen from any other team this season so far.
