The NFL Draft is next week, and we reached out to old friend James Fragoza to discuss Mountain West football and MW players hoping to get drafted this week. James is an NFL Draft & CFB Analyst for Pro Football & Sports Network, but is always willing to take time for MWCConnection. Read his thoughts on Mountain West players below.
1) Starting off, what was your outside opinion of the 2025 Mountain West season, and what overall grade would you give them for the season?
Sure, there was no Ashton Jeanty-led
Boise State pushing for a College Football Playoff berth last year, but I actually thought the Mountain West product was more competitive than general fans give it credit for.
Six teams had 9+ wins (UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Hawaii), and the storylines were worth the price of admission:
- Could Dan Mullen pick up where Barry Odom left off and keep the Rebels competitive? (Yes).
- How would the Idaho Lobos, I mean, New Mexico Lobos perform with Jason Eck as head coach? (Exceptionally well).
- Would San Diego State improve in Year 2 under Sean Lewis? (Duh).
- How would Boise State look without Jeanty in the backfield? (Solid enough).
And list goes on and on. Overall, I’d give the conference a B+, with the lack of Top 25 representation holding it back from reaching the A range.
2) With so much talent leaving for bigger schools through the transfer portal, how do you think scouts view the Mountain West (or teams going to the PAC-12, for that matter)? Do teams question the level of competition for top players in these conferences?
Group of Five programs have been feeder schools for the Power Five for several years now, with the new-look transfer portal and NIL ecosystem certainly exacerbating the issue. I think the Mountain West and Pac-12 will both be viewed like upper-tier Group of Five conferences where underrecruited high school prospects can prove their mettle and Power Five bouncebacks can re-earn their spot at the higher level.
The on-screen product may suffer a tad, but fans should be excited by the head coaches in the conference (many listed above) and their ability to build programs that can punch above their weight. More parity is a good thing for college athletics, and there should be plenty of it for both conferences moving forward.
3) For the NFL Draft this year, there is no Ashton Jeanty, so who do you see as the first player taken in the draft this year, and in what round do you think they will be drafted?
There really is only one right answer for this one: San Diego State CB Chris Johnson. He’s by far the highest-rated Mountain West player in PFSN’s Industry Consensus Big Board, checking in at No. 44, 67 spots higher than the next closest prospect (Boise State OT Kage Casey, 111).
As for what round Johnson will go off the board, I lean toward Day 2, likely Round 2, depending on how many CBs are selected in the first round. But more on Johnson below…
4) Looking at individual players, San Diego State’s Chris Johnson has a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. How do you think he will fare against NFL wide receivers?
Johnson had some rough reps in 1-on-1 coverage at the Senior Bowl, which is to be expected for CBs having to play on the back foot against WRs who know the route and have space to their advantage. Regardless, Johnson’s strength is in zone/off-man coverage – the exact opposite of what those drills highlight at the Senior Bowl.
As long as Johnson goes to a team that understands his strengths and doesn’t try to force him to fit their press-man-heavy scheme, he’ll have the potential to be a starting-caliber outside corner in the NFL.
5) Boise State’s Kage Casey is perhaps the most intriguing player coming out of the Mountain West. He was a two-time all-Mountain West first-team left tackle who rarely committed penalties. However, scouts think he will have to move to the interior, and his testing numbers didn’t wow. How do you view Casey? What position will he be drafted at, and what round do you think he ends up being taken?
Kage Casey is the second-highest-ranked Mountain West draft prospect in the class. I believe he deserves at least a shot at beginning his career at tackle. The “move him inside” projection is much more difficult than many believe. Playing on the interior is a different skill set than on the outside, so why not give Casey a real shot to become a swing/depth tackle before forcing him to a new position?
6) Wyoming tight end John Michael Gyllenborg has the NFL TE body but has battled injuries. How does Gyllenborg grade out for you entering the draft, and what do you think of his NFL future?
John Michael Gyllenborg landed as a Top 200 prospect on the Industry Consensus Big Board, barely (199).
While the injury concern will need to be verified during pre-draft medical checks with the teams, I don’t think they are so much of a concern that JMG will drop too much. He missed three games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury and three games in 2024 due to a knee sprain and a high ankle sprain.
All three of those injuries are rather normal on a football field. Now, he Gyllenborg did suffer a season-ending LCL injury in high school, but we are over four years removed from that at this point. As you mentioned, at 6’6” and 249 pounds, Gyllenborg has the size and athleticism NFL franchises want from a TE2, not too dissimilar to former San Diego State standout Daniel Bellinger from the 2022 class.
7) There were two North Dakota State players, QB Cole Payton and WR Bryce Lance, who had strong showings at the NFL Combine. However, they played at the FCS level. Will that make NFL teams shy away? How early should fans expect to hear their names called, if at all, during the draft?
It’s really a matter of when, not if, Payton and Lance will hear their names called. Sure, they played at the FCS level, which will hinder their NFL Draft ceiling. But both showcased their talent at one of the premier programs on that level. I believe Payton benefited more from Lance than vice versa, with Trey Lance’s younger brother proving to be an elite playmaker outside (2,000+ yards and 25 TDs over the last two years).
That said, it’s a weak QB class overall, so I’d expect Payton to come off the board early on Day 3 (Round 4-5 range), and Lance to be selected somewhere on Day 2 (Round 2 talent but could drop to Round 3 depending on positions runs).
8) Is there a sleeper prospect that you like or are hearing scouts rave about from the Mountain West this draft cycle?
My “sleeper” from the Mountain West this year is New Mexico EDGE Keyshawn James-Newby. The for Idaho star followed head coach Jason Eck to the FBS level and didn’t skip a beat, racking up 15 TFLs, nine sacks, five pass deflections, and two forced fumbles.
At 6’2” and roughly 240 pounds, James-Newby is on the smaller side of NFL edge rushers, but his physical tools (4.53 40-yard dash, 33.5” vertical, and 10” broad) are plain to see on film and are the basis for his pass-rushing ability around the arc.
I’d also like to shout out Wyoming TE (former QB) Evan Svoboda, who tore up testing with a 4.59 40, 36” vertical, 10’2” broad, 6.9 three cone, and 4.22 short shuttle at 6’5” and 248 pounds – all of which were 83rd percentile or higher at the position. Of course, he’s a massive projection with just 11 catches for 92 yards and one TD in his career, but the athletic traits are worth the look.
9) Five years down the line, who in this group is having the best NFL career?
Honestly, despite my love for Johnson, I think Casey could end up having the “better” NFL career. He’s less dependent on landing in a specific scheme, and if he struggles at tackle, he’ll have the opportunity to kick inside to guard. Casey may not develop into a dominant blocker up front, but he could become a solid starter for years to come.
10) To close things out, how many total NFL players do you think get drafted this year? And for a bonus, is there a Mountain West player or two who will be a top undrafted free agent?
I’m going with 6 to 7 Mountain West players getting drafted, those being some combination of San Diego State CB Chris Johnson, Boise State OL Kage Casey, Wyoming TE John Michael Gyllenborg, Wyoming OL Caden Barnett, New Mexico EDGE Keyshawn James-Newby, Utah State CB Noah Avinger, and UNLV CB Al’zillion Hamilton.
As for top undrafted free agents, guys like UNLV CB Denver Harris and Fresno State EDGE Korey Foreman will get looks simply because of their high school pedigree (despite their lack of standout college production).
However, a sneaky talent I hope gets some calls is Air Force, DT Payton Zdroik. At just under 6’0” and only 275+ pounds, he’s a long shot to stick in the league. But he has the raw athleticism (9.26 RAS with a 4.76 40-yard dash and 33” vertical) and movement skills to be a situational pass rusher along the defensive line.
