How excited are you for NCAA tournament expansion?
Mizzou alum Ross Dellenger broke the news we all knew was coming yesterday in his weekly column:
The full article is behind an On3 / Rivals paywall, if you’re a subscriber you can check it out here.
But the 76 teams means there are 8 extra teams going to the 2027 NCAA Tournament than will the 2026 tourney. That’s enough to think about admitting all 16 SEC teams, instead of just the 14 who made it last year. So what sort of teams are we looking at in those extra 8 spots?
Maybe 17-15 Ohio State? Maybe 16-16 TCU? How about 21-15 Villanova? Just what we were missing last year in the NCAA Tournament.
Each year we talk about how soft the bubble is, and all expansion does is soften it further. I’ve said multiple times that I’m not against tournament expansion. I think there are reasonable ways you can expand. But as the gulf between the high majors and the mid- and low majors widens due to NIL and finances, it gets really harder to justify the inclusion of more below mediocre high major teams.
There are ways you could reasonably expand by working to include more good and deserving teams. Teams like UC Irvine last year, or Chattanooga. Irvine won 32 games, UT-Chatt won 29. Both finished inside the top 100 of KenPom. Or maybe Utah Valley who went 15-1 in the WAC but lost to Grand Canyon in the conference tournament. Statistically these teams aren’t better than Ohio State or Villanova who I mentioned above.
So expansion is coming, it’s probably going to suck. We’ll eventually get used to it, and none of the teams who squeezed in will impact the Final Four… most likely.
Yesterday at Rock M and Rock M+
Bye weeks are always long. Fortunately we have had some Olympic coverage to talk about:
- Starting with Dylan’s Volleyball preview, it’s been a bit of a tough entry to SEC play but hopefully some home cooking will serve them well:
After an 0-2 start to SEC play, the Tigers will need all the help they can from the home crowd. While Sullivan downplays the emphasis on wins in favor of playing well, it’s an undeniable fact that Mizzou needs victories if they hope to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas tonight at Hearnes, and Oklahoma on Sunday. Neither are ranked, so hopefully they get even things up in conference play.
- Colin then previewed Soccer’s weekend, and things got off to a bumpy start with a 1-0 loss to LSU:
f there’s one thing Stefanie Golan’s squad has done this season, it’s shut down opposing teams’ top attackers. LSU forward Ava Galligan came in with a team-leading six goals, but she only recorded two shot attempts against Mizzou’s defense.
Phillips’ six saves were the highlight of this match. She stopped multiple shots that could have easily gotten past her, and it wasn’t until the perfect setup in the second half that one got through.
Things don’t get easier either, with 25th ranked Alabama coming to Columbia on Sunday.
- The Non-Con previews are still rolling out, this one we’re talking about the Fighting Irish:
The Irish are currently the 66th ranked team in BartTorkvik.com’s preseason rankings, which means a trip to South Bend in early December could prove tricky. Shrewsberry’s team should be improved over last year, so the Tigers will need to be ready.
The ACC-SEC challenge was something that sounded great when it was announced but then most everyone in the ACC stopped caring about basketball. So now we’re stuck with a lot of wonky matchups. This is a pretty good one though.
- Don’t forget FOOTBALL is still in season even if there wasn’t much to talk about yesterday, True still has his Trending pice to get to (which means next week should be fun):
The Tigers are 5-0 for the second time in 10 years
I know they haven’t played the hardest competition yet (not the easiest either) but Missouri is having one of its best starts since joining the SEC. Coming into the season unranked, the Tigers have been taking every team they face by storm and have drawn national attention. The real season starts with Bama, but Mizzou should definitely pat itself on the shoulders for the strong start to the season its had.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, it’s pretty incredible that the Tigers are 26-5 in the last three years.
Forums Talk
Some really interesting stuff over on RM+: The continued conversation around DataMizzou’s #7 Question “Does Running it back give an Edge?” got into some charts and graphs showing success rates based upon roster assembly:
A couple of things stand out
- Elite portal recruiting and really good retention are eerily similar. The gap between the curves is near the peak, suggesting a higher proportion of portal-heavy would be expected to win between 19 and 23 games. After that, though, the expected results move together.
- Look at how the curve for elite HS recruiting sits slightly to the right of the other two curves —and the sizable gap that emerges after 25 expected wins. It suggests a higher proportion of teams built on talented youth might achieve stellar outcomes. Of course, the presence of Duke and Kentucky, who have dominated the top end of HS recruiting, might have an impact.
Really interesting stuff comparing HS recruiting, Portal Recruiting, and retention. I say this often but there’s nobody who covers Mizzou hoops like Rock M, and Rock M+.
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