We’re deep in the heart of the off-season, the Hot Stove has grown cold, and some Detroit Tiger fans’ patience with the front office has worn paper-thin. But that doesn’t mean we can’t do some prognosticating,
projecting, estimating and elucidating.
I’m not a betting man – “Only ever bet the amount of money you’d be comfortable setting on fire,” I like to say – but I do enjoy a good over/under. Set a number, ask other people if they think the actual number will be over that or under that, and let the wild guesses fly. If you’re unfamiliar with all of this, you have to set the over/under for integer values at something-point-five, to ensure that people guess either over or under that value (but not exactly on that value).
It’s up to you to guess whether the Tigers’ front office will make any big moves this offseason, during Spring Training, or at the trade deadline, which will affect the final values (and therefore your guesses). If you need to expand on your value then be my guest: it’s the internet, you’re not paying by the word like in an old-timey telegram or something.
In the comments, feel free to give your own predictions of “over” or “under” for each category, and if you like, an explanation. Maybe I’ll even remember to revisit this article after the 2026 season to see how right (or hilariously wrong) we all were. I won’t even begin to pretend that these are all important stats; one of them is pretty close to meaningless, frankly, but I thought I’d throw it in there just for squeaks and giggles.
Here we go.
1. Tarik Skubal strikeouts: 232.5 (last year: 241)
In 2025, Skubal had a nutty 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and he threw 195 1/3 innings. I feel like he’ll probably pitch a similar number of innings, but will probably strike out a touch fewer. Besides, as Crash Davis in Bull Durham noted, strikeouts are fascist and ground balls are more democractic; who wouldn’t want more democracy on the ol’ ball diamond?
2. Team home runs: 188.5 (last year: 198)
I love ya, Riley Greene, but I don’t think you have 36 home runs in you again. I think Spencer Torkelson could probably match the 31 he had in 2025, and Kerry Carpenter is probably good for 25. Dillon Dingler’s probably good for another 15, and a healthy Parker Meadows could probably give you at least ten. But I don’t think Javier Báez, Zach McKinstry and Wenceel Pérez are that likely to club a dozen each. Is there a Bregman in our future? Maaaaayyyybe?
3. Riley Greene home runs: 24.5 (last year: 36)
Speaking of Greene, I don’t think he’s going to hit 36 home runs in 2026, not even close. I think he’ll probably stay healthy if he’s in left and not centre, and if he hit 25 home runs but upped his doubles to 40 or even 45, I’d be a very happy guy. He just needs to cut down on those strikeouts, and if he sacrifices a dozen home runs to improve that? Again, happy guy.
4. Reese Olson innings pitched: 100.0 (last year: 68.2)
This one may have the most bearing on how the starting rotation performs in 2026. Olson managed just 112.1 innings in 2024, and far less in 2025. Regular shoulder trouble is not a good sign. Reese should be the Tigers second best starter by a decent margin, but if he can’t stay on the mound the rotation depth is going to be sorely tested again. If he figures it out via offseason and in-season conditioning? The Tigers are going to like the way they look.
5. Total sacrifice bunts: 5.5 (last year: 5)
AJ Hinch hates the sacrifice bunt, and in 2025 the Tigers averaged less than one per month. The team put ten balls in play as bunts in 2025, and half of those went down as successful sacrifices; out of the other five, two ended up as successful base hits. (Personally, I’d like to see guys like Meadows try to bunt for a base hitt more often, especially during a slump.) I don’t think Hinch is suddenly going to love the sacrifice bunt, but it definitely has its place if used properly and sparingly.
6. Date of Kevin McGonigle’s Tigers debut: July 30
Alright, this isn’t really a statistic like the others, per se, but I wanted to throw this in there just to see what people thought. I picked this day because it’s an off-day, so you really do need to pick a day before or after this.
7. Team wins: 88.5 (last year: 87)
We can talk about all kinds of statistics, pitch shapes, bat speed, defensive positioning… but in the end it all comes down to whether the team can win or not. More wins means more success; it doesn’t get simpler than that. I feel like the Tigers will add a little, subtract a little, and perform about the same as they did in 2025, but perhaps without the wild extremes, particularly that weird late-September collapse that cost them a division title.
So, put your guessing-caps on, polish up that slide-rule, and let us have your best predictions. Or if you can think of a better statistic, and frankly you probably can, let us know that one too.
