Note: These predictions are mine and mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the other AATJ staff.
The Devils and Nico Hischier Agree To a Contract Extension
As I’ve said before, the most important piece of business for the Devils this summer is to get Nico Hischier to agree to a contract extension.
From a Devils perspective, it makes too much sense. Hischier is a jack-of-all trades player for this roster in that his hand is in everything. He plays in all situations. He is tasked with shutting down the opposition’s top line defensively.
He takes a physical pounding year after year. He plays hurt. He takes every important faceoff for the team. And while he does all of that, he chips in his 25+ goals and 70-ish points per season.
There is already a lack of quality, top-six caliber centers in this league. The reason why simply allowing Hischier to leave isn’t an option is that players like him are more difficult to replace than your run of the mill middle six winger. You can’t just go out in the free agency market and pluck a top-six center that does everything from the non-existent center tree that they don’t grow from. Mehta is smart enough to know that if he loses Hischier, he’ll spend the next half decade trying to replace him.
Of course, this may or may not be up to Mehta in the first place. Hischier has leverage as he’s entering a contract year, and it remains to be seen what he wants. If he decides he’s ready for a change, there’s not much that Mehta or the Devils can probably do to change his mind. But there is familiarity with Mehta from his time previously in the organization. Mehta is a sharp mind, and I don’t doubt that he’ll have a vision for where this organization is in the not too distant future.
Much like everything else in this article, this is a guess on my part, but now that the dust has settled from the 2025-26 season and emotions aren’t so raw, I think Mehta will get that buy-in from the Devils captain and he signs an extension sometime this offseason. Maybe it’ll be an extension in the same vein as Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews where it’s short-term and puts the onus on the organization to figure out how to build a legitimately Stanley Cup contender in that timeframe. Maybe he decides he’s very comfortable with the direction of the franchise and is willing to sign up for max term. Maybe it won’t necessarily be done on July 1 and is instead done on October 1.
Regardless, I think it gets done.
The Devils Keep The 12th Overall Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft
I understand why the idea of trading the 2026 first round pick is a popular one. The Devils need help on the NHL roster now, and Mehta is coming from a Florida team that was aggressive in trading draft picks to acquire players who could help them win sooner rather than later. Florida had previously traded a 2nd and Emil Heineman for Sam Bennett, a 1st and Devon Levi for Sam Reinhart, a 1st for Ben Chiarot, a 1st, 3rd and Owen Tippett for Claude Giroux, and a 1st, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk.
I don’t doubt that Mehta will be aggressive when it comes to trading draft picks for players. But I also think that Mehta will want to build this team for long-term success, and part of that is continuing to build through the draft.
The Devils biggest need in their organizational pipeline is game-breaking forwards. They do have some interesting forwards who might eventually carve out a role in their middle or bottom six at the NHL level, but there are no forwards currently in the pipeline that I’m confident will be a top-six caliber player that drives play and scores consistently. Blame the draft whiffs on Alex Holtz and Chase Stillman if you want, and blame the team trading futures and having less draft picks in general with which to take those swings, but it’s all the more reason why they need to look at that area when they’re on the clock.
The best course of action for the Devils is to identify forwards who, within a year or two of being drafted, can step into their NHL lineup and contribute. It will require a little bit of patience, but forwards historically develop much faster than defensemen and goaltenders and are more likely to be contributors in their age 19, 20, and 21 seasons.
If recent history is any indicator, the Devils should be able to get a quality player at 12th overall. Anton Lundell, Matthew Boldy, and Martin Necas went in that slot in their respective draft years. The Devils would need to buck their recent trend of questionable draft choices, and it might take Mehta taking matters into his own hands rather than relying on the braintrust and amateur scouting department he is inheriting. But I do think Mehta will play the long-game and that begins with replenishing the forward pipeline via the draft.
Of course, there are other ways to get forwards who can help the team immediately, which we’ll get into later.
The Devils Don’t Trade Dougie Hamilton
I felt for most of last season that Dougie Hamilton’s days as a New Jersey Devil were numbered.
There had been rumblings dating back to last offseason about how the Devils were shopping him, only for Hamilton to reject a trade to San Jose. Last season played out, and I was certain that the healthy scratch slash benching was going to be the catalyst for Hamilton to ultimately waive his no-trade clause and accept a deal. Add in Hamilton adopting the radio silence approach when it comes to dealing with the media and it was one of those situations that just felt inevitable. Hamilton had already played his final game as a Devil.
That may ultimately still be the case, but I have a suspicion that Hamilton will still be a Devil come Opening Night in October.
For starters, I still think there are a lot of roadblocks to a potential Hamilton trade. Even noting that the “real dollars” owed to him after July 1, 2026 is relatively miniscule, a $9M AAV cap hit for two more years is still a big number for teams to try to fit in. Add in that he has a 10-team trade list, AKA a 21-team no trade list, and Hamilton still has plenty of control over his situation, as is his contractual right. Odds are, he’s not going to leave unless he signs off on leaving.
Add in Chris Johnston leaving Dougie Hamilton off of The Athletic’s Trade Board entirely and the situation gives me pause.
Hamilton has his flaws as a player, but generally speaking, the puck is going in the right direction when its on his stick. The Devils don’t have a lot of options on the backend who are capable of generating offense, and the biggest issue with the Devils last season was their inability to put the puck in the back of the net. There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Devils still could use a player like Hamilton, and as Johnston mentioned on a recent podcast, he might be the type of player who has the analytical profile that Sunny Mehta is looking for. Mehta doesn’t have to go looking for the next Dougie Hamilton right now when he already has Dougie Hamilton at home and bigger fish to fry this summer.
I don’t think Hamilton is necessarily untouchable, and I get the argument to the contrary that his $9M AAV could be better used elsewhere. But I think its more likely the Devils trade a different RHD this summer.
The Devils Trade Simon Nemec for a Top Six Forward (Or the Assets To Go Get One)
I don’t know how attached Mehta is going to be to anyone on this Devils roster, but I certainly don’t think “running it back” is going to fly either. There will be changes.
How many changes will likely be dependant upon what, if anything, he can do with the various players who have some sort of no-trade protection that he has inherited from previous GM Tom Fitzgerald. But there are players who don’t have any protection who I think could be on the move and one of them is Simon Nemec.
For what its worth, I think Nemec’s issues are mostly of the “coachable” variety and my preference would be to keep him rather than trade him. But the reality of the situation is that he’s up for a contract, his name has been out there before on the trading block under the previous regime, and Mehta didn’t draft him. He also still has value as trade chip, and its possible that Mehta decides the time to cash that chip in is now.
I don’t think Nemec is a finished product as a player, but if Mehta isn’t sold on him being a top-pairing RHD, it would make sense to move on from him now while he’s still a valuable trade asset. Nemec does play a premium position and he does enough things well that there would be interest in him on the market.
I’m not saying they should trade Nemec for some 30-year old winger who is already in his decline. I don’t know if the supposed “Matthew Knies for Nemec plus” trade is still an option after Toronto won the draft lottery. But I do know if I were Mehta, I’d be looking to make my version of the Jamie Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier trade. And I suspect there’s at least one team out there not entirely pleased with a recent top six forward draft pick where that kind of swap could make sense.
The Devils Trade Dawson Mercer, likely with Nemec, to Upgrade at Forward
In regards to Dawson Mercer, he’s become a player you can pencil in for around 20 goals per season, but his average of 37 points per season the last three years is well below what you’d expect from a forward who has played in every game of every season to this point of his career and has consistently had a top six role the last couple seasons. It’s not that he’s a bad player, but its one of those things where if you’re going to improve your top six, you need to look at the weaker links in said top six for more production to find those areas to improve. In the Devils case, it would be finding a more consistently productive player than Mercer.
Mercer is entering the final season of his contract (making $4M AAV) before hitting RFA once again, and ideally, he’s probably better suited to be the 8th or 9th best forward on a good hockey team than the 4th or 5th that he currently is on the Devils. I’m not necessarily opposed to keeping Mercer if the idea is to find another top six RW to slot in over him and move Mercer down to the third line, but I’m also not opposed to the idea of using Mercer in a trade to get a better top six forward and seeing if someone like Lenni Hameenaho can grow into that third line role.
The Devils Will Trade One Of Jonas Siegenthaler or Brenden Dillon
If you read my articles around the trade deadline, you’ll know that one of the themes I’ve been on is how the Devils need to shake up their blueline. Moving one (or both) of Hamilton and Nemec would certainly be a start to that, but if they go down that road, they’re moving off of some of the few defensemen who can move the puck and/or create offense.
You could argue this would be a balance to that. I think the Devils move one of their defensive defenseman as well, with the intention of filling the open roster spots with players who better fit what Mehta envisions moving forward.
Contracts matter though, and while I’m sure Mehta would love to move off of the four years remaining on Johnathan Kovacevic’s (and perhaps even Brett Pesce’s) contract, those players do have a full NTC for this season. Luke Hughes isn’t going anywhere, nor should he. So what options does that leave? The two veteran defensive defensemen with light trade protection in Siegenthaler and Dillon.
Siegenthaler, who turned 29 earlier this month, has been with the Devils for parts of six seasons. He has shown to be a very good defensive defenseman when he’s healthy. He has 2 years left on his deal at $3.4M AAV and a ten-team no-trade list. It’s not like Siegenthaler has a contract that is problematic, but he is what he is as a player.
As for Dillon, he’s a bit older as he’s entering his age 36 season next year. He has one year at $4M AAV left on his deal. Dillon has been a good veteran presence on this roster and $4M is a fair price for what he brings as a player. He also has a 10-team no-trade list.
Neither Siegenthaler nor Dillon will contribute much offensively. It’s just not who they are as players.
The Devils Buy Out Maxim Tsyplakov But Hold On to Stefan Noesen
Tsyplakov came over to the Devils in the Ondrej Palat trade, and while he was ok in a fourth line role, he is a bit overpriced at $2.25M AAV for next season. For a team that doesn’t have a ton of cap space to begin with but does have a bunch of fourth liner types who could push for a roster spot, I could see him being the odd man out.
Ideally, the Devils would flip Tsyplakov to another team that values what he brings to the table. Tsyplakov doesn’t have any trade protection, unless you consider the fact he’s an overpaid fourth liner to be his trade protection. But at the end of the day, he’s another player that Mehta is inheriting that he didn’t pick for this roster, and I would expect that Mehta would value the $1.5M in cap savings more than anything Tsyplakov can do on the ice.
As for Noesen, I think he’s a guy the Devils keep as they let him play out his contract. Or at least start the season with the Devils.
Obviously, injuries have hampered Noesen as last season was more or less a complete washout for him. But he does bring some things to the table this team needs. He has a willingness to go netfront and score greasy goals. He plays an abrasive style of hockey. We saw in 2024-25 how well he can fit into Sheldon Keefe’s system and what the Devils are trying to do. Regardless, I don’t think Noesen has much trade value right this second, and the Devils are still going to need players to play for them at the end of the day. I’m going to guess he stays.
Perhaps it doesn’t work out, the injuries are just too much, and he’s physically shot at 33 years old. Or perhaps it does and Noesen is either a valuable depth piece or he plays his way into becoming a valuable piece to flip at the trade deadline. Either way, there’s enough upside there where its worth trying.
The Devils Sign LW A.J. Greer
Devils fans should be familiar with Greer, as he came to the Devils in the trade that sent Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac to the Islanders back in 2021. For whatever reason, Greer was unable to break through and crack a Devils roster in 2021-22 that saw the need to play Mason Geertsen 25 times, so he spent most of his time as a Devil in the AHL.
Of course, it was after Greer left New Jersey that he established himself as a pest and an NHL regular. After making stops in Boston and Calgary, he landed in Florida where he was a depth piece for Florida’s championship team in 2024-25. He followed that up with an unexpected 17 goal, 15 assist season this past year before heading into free agency once again.
I’m sure some people reading this knowing the Devils need more skill are rolling their eyes at the suggestion of adding another grit and sandpaper type of player. But I also view this as a situation where Mehta has an affinity for the player and it being plausible that he goes after him on July 1. Mehta went as far as to mention Greer by name in one of his media availabilities, albeit in the context of Greer wanting a copy of Mehta’s poker strategy book.
The moneyball, analytics-based approach, at least in theory, would be that rather than paying Greer market value, Mehta identifies the next Greer at a fraction of the cost. And maybe that’s what he indeed decides to do. But I don’t think signing Greer is the type of move that breaks your budget in the first place, and I think if the bidding for his services got to the point where we’re talking 3-4 years or better than Stefan Noesen money, I’d take the bet that he doesn’t shoot 16.3% again or score 17 goals again.
That said, I do think he’d be an upgrade over most of the fourth line wingers the Devils have trotted out there the last few years. And Mehta wouldn’t be the first person who brings in people that he is familiar with from his previous stop.
The Devils Add a Goaltender on July 1st | The Devils Utilize the Second Buyout Window to Buy Out Jacob Markstrom
Tim wrote the other day about whether a goaltending move is in the cards. I don’t know if it actually is in the cards, but looking at the Devils situation, it might make sense to move on from one of the biggest mistakes of the Tom Fitzgerald era.
Trading for Jacob Markstrom was one thing. Tom Fitzgerald rushing to hand him a 2-year contract extension at $6M AAV when he had yet to show last season that he was capable of playing well was a questionable move at the time. Markstrom proceeded to turn in one of the worst seasons of his NHL career.
It was the type of move that if that wasn’t a fireable offense, then there is no such thing as a fireable offense for Tom Fitzgerald. David Blitzer might not have specifically cited the Markstrom contract as THE reason why the Devils moved on from Fitzgerald, but it’s certainly a part of the equation.
In comes Sunny Mehta, and one of the first moves he made was moving on from beleaguered goaltending coach Dave Rogalski. This made sense, as Rogalski was on the job for far too long with far too few results to point to to justify continuing to go down that road. Making a change there and literally trying anything different is justifiable.
That said, Mehta is ultimately going to be judged as Devils general manager on wins and losses. The clock starts for Mehta on Opening Night in October.
If there are ANY reservations on Mehta’s part in regards to Markstrom’s ability to bounce back, why would he stick his neck out for an aging goaltending that he didn’t trade for and he didn’t sign to said extension? Why would he do that when at the end of the day, Mehta is going to be judged on the games that Markstrom either is or isn’t winning? He’s already clearly seen something he didn’t like with the goaltending that they moved on from Rogalski, so why stop there?
I took it a step further in the comments section of Tim’s post.
Is Jacob Markstrom still one of the best 32 goaltenders in the NHL to where he should be a starter?
It’s debatable but I would say probably not.
In fact, among goaltenders who played at least 30 games (51 qualifiers), he’s 43rd in GSAx, 45th in save percentage, 39th in GAA, and 44th in wins above replacement.
He’s 50th in low danger unblocked save percentage, so he’s definitely not stopping the softies. But he’s also 41st in high danger unblocked save percentage, meaning he’s not stopping the tougher shots either.
Is Markstrom one of the best 64 goaltenders in the NHL where he should have a guaranteed roster spot?
Again, debatable, but I’d say probably not.
If I lower that games played threshold to 10 games, which basically covers all backups and anyone from the AHL who got some run due to injury (72 qualifiers), Markstrom is 62nd in GSAx, 58th in save percentage, 48th in GAA, and 63rd in WAR. He’s 69th in low danger save unblocked save percentage and 53rd in high danger unblocked save percentage. (all stats courtesy of MoneyPuck, by the way)
Does that sound like a no-doubt-about it, unquestioned #1 NHL goaltender to you? Because it doesn’t to me, and I doubt it will for Mehta as well.
Is it possible Markstrom is better next season? Of course its possible. He’s also a 36 year old goaltender who will turn 37 next season and its possible this is just what he is at this point.
If I were Mehta, do I want to be saddled with the mistakes from the previous administration? Or do I want to cut my losses now, save $2.75M against the cap, and take my chances looking elsewhere for an acceptable solution when I’m going to be judged on wins and losses starting on Day 1?
Taking on dead cap space in future years isn’t ideal. But neither is having a sunk cost at $6M AAV costing you games in the here and now. So I know which one I would pick.
I lump these two predictions together as the former will likely be an indicator for the latter.
If the Devils were to sign a UFA goaltender or swing a trade for a younger option like Devon Levi, Sebastian Cossa, Jesper Wallstedt, or whoever, that’s probably a pretty strong indicator that Mehta is likely to move on from Markstrom and pair the incoming netminder with Jake Allen.
