2026 was the final season of Kevin Gausman’s five-year, $110 million free-agent contract. In the first four seasons, Kevin posted a 48-41 record, a 3.48 ERA, and an 11.5 bWAR. A good return on a big free-agent contract. Not all that many of those go as well as this one did.
But 2026 was his age-35 season, and sometimes pitchers don’t do well in their mid-30s.
| Age | Team | WAR | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | ERA+ | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 2TM | 1.1 | 9 | 12 | 4.51 | 32 | 32 | 177.2 | 179 | 96 | 89 | 26 | 47 | 1 | 184 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 750 | 97 | 3.74 |
| 35 | TOR | 1.0 | 5 | 10 | 4.38 | 23 | 23 | 127.1 | 128 | 68 | 62 | 15 | 36 | 1 | 127 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 540 | 101 | 3.51 |
| 35 | CHC | 0.1 | 4 | 2 | 4.83 | 9 | 9 | 50.1 | 51 | 28 | 27 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 210 | 88 | 4.33 |
Generated 10/15/2026.
Baseball Reference has him at a 1.1 WAR (down from 4.0). FanGraphs 3.1 (down from 4.1), giving him a value of $25.1 million to the Jays and Cubs.
He had a 3.3.74 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP, which is why the FanGraphs WAR is so much better than the Baseball Reference one.
Kevin’s BABIP was .311 (up from.262 last year). 68.7% of his base runner were stranded (down from 72.2%).
His line drive rate was down a little bit (19.6% from 21.3 last year), ground ball rate up (40.3% down from 36.7), and fly ball rate much the same (40.3% from 42.0). 12.7% of fly balls hit off him left the park, up from 9.5.
His strikeout rate about the same (24.5% from 24.4), and his walk rate was down a bit (6.3% from 6.5).
Kevin’s soft contact was up (17.4% from 15.1 last year) and hard contact about the same (35.9% from 36.2).
He was better against LHB (.251/.304/.389) than RHB (.269/.307/.459). He’s been slightly better against LHB for his career.
He was better at home (3.83 ERA, batters hit .264/.299/.439) than on the road (5.40, .253/.313/.394).
Kevin was better in the first half of the season (4.33, .244/.296/.405) than the second half (4.82, .284/.320/.444).
Gausman by month:
- April: 7 starts, 2-2, 3.10. Batters hit .204/.244/.349, 5 home runs, 8 walks and 40 strikeouts.
- May: 5 starts, 2-1, 3.18. Batters hit .291/.316/.364, 1 home run, 4 walks and 26 strikeouts.
- June: 6 starts, 0-4, 6.47. Batters hit .262/.324/.556, 9 home runs, 12 walks and 34 strikeouts.
- July: 4 starts, 0-3, 6.10. Batters hit .280/.366/.317, 3 home runs, 11 walks and 23 strikeouts.
- August: 6 starts, 4-1, 4.54. Batters hit .275/.312/.443, 5 home runs, 8 walks and 33 strikeouts.
- September: 4 starts, 1-1, 4.43. Batters hit .267/.298/.478, 6 home runs, 4 walks and 28 strikeouts.
The Jays were 9-14 in his starts. The Cubs were 5-4 in his starts. Between the two teams, they averaged 4.05 runs scored in games he started. They scored 2 or less runs in 13 of his starts.
Days of rest:
- 4 days, 12 games: 3.54, .246/.288/.404.
- 5 days, 16 games: 5.26, .265/.313/.433.
- 6 or more days, 4 games: 4.50, .275/.326/.413
I love guys who are best on normal rest. I think we are all creatures of habit, you get in a routine and things go well, you leave that routine and they don’t got as well. He was also best on normal rest last year.
Times through the order:
- 1st: Batters hit .233/.276/.346.
- 2nd: Batters hit .270/.318/.460.
- 3rd: Batters hit .286/.333/.478.
- And he faced 1 batter a fourth time, getting the out.
I wonder if he would consider being a reliever next year? That might be reading too much into one season, in 2025 he was pretty much the same for each of the first three times through the order.
By Catcher:
- Brandon Valenzuela: 4.46, .254/.298/.396 in 308 PA.
- Alejandro Kirk: 4.81, .263/.324/.419 in 185 PA.
- Carson Kelly: 4.20, .226/.268/.426 in 123 PA.
- Miguel Amaya: 5.75, .305/.333/.500 in 87 PA.
- Tyler Heineman: 2.31, .273/.319/.409 in 47 PA.
Kevin’s best start, by GameScore, was a 78 on April 1st, at home against the Rockies. He went 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 0 walks, and 10 strikeouts. He also had a 77 and two 76s.
Worst start? A 13 in Chicago against the Cubs, on June 19th. You likely remember it: 2 innings, 7 hits, 7 earned runs, 1 home run, 4 walks and 3 strikeouts. We used six relievers, two days after a bullpen day, and the next day Patrick Corbin was pulled after 3.2 innings.
Kevin averaged 5.5 innings per start in his 23 starts with us. And about the same in his 9 starts with the Cubs. His one playoff start didn’t go all that well: 3.1 innings, 3 earned.
He threw, for the most part, three pitches:
- Four Seamer: 93.8 mph (last year it averaged 94.5). Batters hit .289 against it (.230 last year).
- Split finger: 84 mph (last year it averaged 94.9). Batters hit .207 against it (.191 last year).
- Slider: 84.1 mph (last year it averaged 83.2). Batters hit .324 against it (.333 last year).
Random Baseball Savant numbers:
- Fastball Run Value: 87th percentile.
- Breaking Ball Run Value: 7th percentile.
- Chase Rate: 88th percentile.
- Strikeout %: 70th percentile.
- Walk %: 86th percentile.
- Barrell %: 46th percentile.
- Hard Hit %: 34th percentile.
- Expected ERA: 53rd percentile.
With the Jays, he posted a 53-51 record and a 3.63 ERA, with a 12.5 bWAR (and a 21 fWAR). FanGraphs says he was worth $167.6 million over his five-year contract, and he was paid $110 million, so we got more than our money’s worth.
On the Jays career leaderboard:
- 11th in pitcher bWAR: 12.5.
- 7th in ERA: 3.62
- 11th in wins: 53 (tied with Jose Berrios)
- 11th in innings pitched: 861.0.
- 7th in strikeouts: 920.
- 9th in games started: 148.
He also started 7 playoff games (and pitched once in relief) for the Jays. He had a 3.79 ERA and a 2-4 record.
The last I saw, Gausman was talking about retirement, but he has said that he would consider coming back to the Jays. As I mentioned above, he was terrific the first time through the order, and far less good the second and third times. But I’m not sure that he would want to come back to pitch out of the pen.
The trade looks very good for the Jays, Brett Bateman was terrific for us, in his 41 games. Ty Southisene played well for 11 games with Vancouver, hitting .262/.380/.429. It will be interesting to watch how he does. FanGraphs had him listed as the Cubs 27th best prospect. He’s fast and plays good defense in the middle of the infield.
It was great getting to watch Gausman pitch. The last five seasons wouldn’t have been nearly as much fun without him.
