The Royals took a small step backward in 2025, but they still finished with back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since they won pennants in 2014 and 2015. With the core of the team that fell five games out of a playoff spot last year intact, the front office made a bet on consistency rather than big changes. The talent is there. Last year’s deficiencies came down to execution – poor situational hitting, poor baserunning.
“Some adjustments will be small tweaks rather than wholesale changes,“
said manager Matt Quatraro at the end of last season. ”Baseball is full of a million small decisions that add up over the course of a season.”
But president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo did make some upgrades with the roster, particularly in the outfield. The Royals had the worst offensive outfield in baseball last year, collectively hitting just .225/.285/.348. Picollo made a shrewd trade with the Brewers, picking up versatile switch-hitter Isaac Collins, who had a surprisingly good rookie season with a .368 on-base percentage that would have led the Royals. Picollo also made some low-cost gambles with free agents Lane Thomas and Starling Marte, hoping each has something left in the tank. Thomas hit 28 home runs in 2023, but has battled injuries since then, while Marte has been an above-average bat the last two seasons but a liability in the field.
The team also brought back embattled hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, although they made some changes underneath him, bringing in Marcus Thames and Connor Dawson to work with Royals hitters. The team finished with the fifth-fewest runs in baseball last year, but improved significantly with situational hitting in the second half, hitting .293/.364/.500 with runners in scoring position after the break.
The floor has been raised in Kansas City, bringing higher expectations from fans. The team has a window where Bobby Witt Jr. is an MVP-caliber player, but have they done enough to put a true contending team around him?
Kansas City Royals
2025 record: 82-80
2025 pythag: 83-79
2026 ZIPS projection: 82-80
2025 PECOTA projection: 84-78
Manager: Matt Quatraro (fourth season)
Key additions: Isaac Collins, Alex Lange, Starling Marte, Nick Mears, Matt Strahm, Lane Thomas
Key departures: Jonathan Bowlan, Taylor Clarke, Adam Frazier, Randal Grichuk, Hunter Harvey, Sam Long, Michael Lorenzen, Drew Waters, Mike Yastrzemski, Angel Zerpa
All eyes will be on whether the Royals have done enough to upgrade an offense that has been lacking the last two seasons. But there are reasons to be optimistic. PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus projects the Royals to have the best offense in the division. Eno Sarris of The Athletic predicts it could be a top ten offense in all of baseball, writing “It’s ready to bust out.”
The World Baseball Classic gave Royals hitters a huge spotlight, which they seized. Maikel Garcia, who emerged as an All-Star last season, won MVP for the tournament with his fiery play. Garcia finished top ten in the AL last year in hits (170), doubles (39), triples (5), batting average (.286), and fWAR (5.6), while winning his first Gold Glove. Vinnie Pasquantino emerged in the Classic as a run producer and team leader for Team Italy. He paired up with Salvador Perez last year to become the first teammates in Royals history to hit 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI.
The lineup will be paced by superstar Bobby Witt Jr., who led the league in hits for the second year in a row, won his second Gold Glove, and finished fourth in MVP voting. Only Aaron Judge has put up more fWAR than Witt’s 18.5 over the last two seasons. The lineup was pretty thin at the bottom last year, but the Royals are counting on a couple of young, unproven hitters to change that. Catcher Carter Jensen was impressive in a September callup, showing a good eye and enough power to smash a home run 456 feet in Sacramento. Jac Caglianone struggled mightily in his rookie campaign, but his prodigious power is unquestionable. If he can elevate more this year, he has 30+ home run potential.
Collins battled injuries in spring training, but he should see a lot of time in left field, with perhaps some starts at second base as well. Jonathan India is hoping to bounce back from a poor first season with the Royals and get back to the .352 on-base percentage he put up in four years with the Reds. Kyle Isbel was a Gold Glove finalist and sixth among all outfielders in Outs Above Average last year.
But perhaps the biggest change to the lineup will be evident when the Royals return to Kansas City on Monday. The team crunched the numbers and determined they would benefit from moving in the deep alleys at Kauffman Stadium to make it a more neutral hitting environment. Both Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino were among the top hitters in the difference between “expected” home runs and actual home runs, so there should be more balls flying out at the K this summer.
All statistics are 2025 numbers.
Starting pitching has been the strength of the Royals the last two seasons, and while that should still be the case, there are reasons for concern. Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic each missed several months with injuries, Seth Lugo had a second-half swoon, Noah Cameron’s numbers suggest some regression, and Michael Wacha turns 35 this summer. Even with those risks, the rotation could be among the best in baseball if they can stay healthy.
Ragans struck out 22 of the 48 batters he faced in the three starts he made after coming back from injury, and he had the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball for anyone with at least 60 innings pitched. Bubic was pitching like a Cy Young contender over the first three months before rotator cuff strain ended his season just after he was named to his first All-Star team.
Cameron had an impressive first season, finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting despite a low strikeout rate. The underrated Wacha is 16th among all starting pitchers in fWAR over the last two seasons. Lugo has a 2.57 ERA in the first half in the last two seasons combined, and a 5.15 ERA in the second half. The Royals have built up the rotation depth to move to a six-man rotation this summer to give him some more rest, with Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Luinder Avila all options to start at some point this year.
Carlos Estévez became the only Royals pitcher other than Dan Quisenberry to lead the Majors in saves. But he has put up worrying velocity numbers in spring training and could be on a short leash. Lucas Erceg continued to be solid, but had a huge drop in strikeout rate last year. Picollo added depth to the pen by acquiring All-Star Matt Strahm from the Phillies, and included Nick Mears in the Brewers trade. The Royals also took a low-cost gamble by signing Lee’s Summit native Alex Lange, who has missed most of the last two years with injury, but had 26 saves with the Tigers in 2023.
All statistics are 2025 numbers.
The vibes are immaculate at the K these days. Bobby Witt Jr. is a legit star. Vinnie Pasquantino has become one of the most loveable personalities in the game. Maikel Garcia has the chip on his shoulder the team needs. Salvador Perez is the leader who continues to age gracefully. Caglianone and Jensen have light-tower power you can dream on.
With the Guardians and Twins largely dormant this offseason and the White Sox still in rebuild mode, the Central Division seems like a two-team race between the Royals and Tigers. The Tigers made a splashy signing with pitcher Framber Valdez and could be the slight favorites in the division.
But the Royals appear to be in a new era, where they expect to be contenders each season. As J.J. Picollo said last fall, “We believe it’s the start of many winning seasons.” Now they must execute if they want these seasons to be more meaningful.
