This week is starting to feel like a now or never moment for the Colorado Buffaloes.
After losing last weekend 35–21 to TCU, this CU doesn’t have much time to correct their course before the season feels
like a lost cause.
Now sitting at 2–4 and 0-3 in conference play, Colorado faces one of its toughest tests of the year when No. 22 Iowa State comes to Boulder for a 1:30 p.m. kickoff on Saturday. The Cyclones are 5–1 and bring one of the best pass defenses in the country. Colorado is only a 2.5 point underdog, but do they have what it takes to knock off one of the Big 12’s heavy hitters and get back on track?
Let’s take a look at what these two teams do well, what they struggle with and how they’ll match up tomorrow afternoon:
The Buffs
If you watched last week’s game, it was obvious what doomed the Buffs. Up in the third, Colorado had a real chance to win it, but the offense sputtered down the stretch and the defense got worn down by TCU’s versatile passing attack. Colorado’s four turnovers didn’t help things either.
It’s been a tough few weeks for the Colorado defense, but the unit seemingly took a small step forward in Fort Worth. The Buff held TCU to only 94 yards on the ground, and nickel corner Preston Hodge seemingly returned to his old self by being a consistent force in pass coverage.
Still, despite the defense moving in the right direction, TCU threw the ball seemingly at will against a CU cornerback room that’s been shaky at best. The Buffs continue to search for answers in the secondary this week against Iowa State.
While CB1 DJ McKinney has regressed somewhat this season, he’s still been Colorado’s best option and a more than serviceable option on the outside. With Hodge stepping up last week at the nickel despite his early season struggles, all attention now turns to CU’s contentious CB2 spot.
Just to put it plainly, the CB2 spot has been the most volatile part of Colorado’s defense because seemingly nobody can grasp the position and hold onto it. RJ Johnson has looked like CU’s best option at the spot, but he’s been hurt most of the season and will once again be out against the Cyclones. Teon Parks and Makari Vickers have also filled in, but have been commonly beaten in coverage, leading to opponents moving the chains far too often.
Until the Buffs can figure out what to do at the CB2 spot, this CU defense is vulnerable, especially when against a game manager QB like Iowa State’s Rocco Becht. While the Cyclones are a run heavy offense, Becht is very good at taking what opponent’s defenses give them for short, consistent gains. If Iowa State’s receivers can consistently create mismatches due to Colorado’s struggles in the secondary, that’s not a great omen for the Buffs.
Offensively, the Buffs have a tough decision to make at quarterback. Senior Kaidon Salter has started all but one game for Colorado and has thrown for seven touchdowns and four picks on the year, but has struggled with decision making. Salter often holds onto the ball too long and forces throws when clear scrambling lanes are open. Last week’s loss might’ve been the final straw, as he threw three picks against TCU. If he starts again, he’ll have to be much better at protecting the football against Iowa State to ensure he sees the field in his last two months of college eligibility.
If not Salter, it’ll be Ryan Staub or true freshman Julian Lewis. Staub has seen limited action, but is probably viewed as the safer option due to his experience as a pocket passer. Lewis is the long-term guy, but it’s unclear if the staff wants to burn his redshirt unless they absolutely have to. Head Coach Deion Sanders never gives any information away as to who he’ll start at QB. Nobody knows what Prime is thinking, but based on comments made in his Tuesday press conference, it seems like Salter will have at least one more chance to right the ship before the Buffs look to somebody else following their bye week.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Buffaloes, though. Their offensive line has been legit good. Jordan Seaton is becoming easily one of the best tackles in all of the nation, and the combination of guys around him have been elite in both pass and run blocking.
Speaking of run blocking, CU’s running backs have found a way to do serious damage on the ground, even with the room being ravaged by injuries. Micah Welch and Dallan Hayden will be Colorado’s top two options in the backfield against ISU, and expect them to rack up yards. Hayden, who has recently returned from injury himself, is someone to especially keep an eye on, after his stellar showing last weekend in Fort Worth.
Iowa State
Iowa State comes into this game with a record 5–1, just barely squeaking inside the Ap Top 25 at No. 22. The Cyclones’ lone loss was a 38–30 shootout at Cincinnati last week, a game where the Bearcats took a big lead early. The ‘Clones were able to claw back in the second half, but ultimately fell just short.
Don’t let last weekend’s game fool you, as ISU is a very solid team. They’ve just been ravaged with injuries and the Bearcats were simply able to take advantage of that. Quarterback Rocco Becht is playing like one of the best in the Big 12, with a 65 percent completion rate, 1,417 yards and nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. He holds a strong 82.8 passing grade, according to PFF, and gets the ball out quickly. His favorite target has been tight end Benjamin Brahmer, who leads the team with 19 receptions and three touchdowns.
After losing both of their top two receivers to the NFL in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, the Cyclones have been able to get steady production for youngster Brett Eskildson and East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell. Eskildsen has proven to be Becht’s go-to receiver downfield, as the sophomore has totaled 321 and two touchdowns on 18 catches. Sowell has been ISU’s big play threat, averaging 18.2 yards per catch.
In the run game, Carson Hansen has been a rock for the Cyclones, but he’ll miss action in Boulder due to injury. Abu Sama III, who has been an extremely solid RB2 for Iowa State, will get his shot to be the Cyclones first option in the backfield. ISU’s offensive line has held up well thus, so Sama could have some room to run. Not having Hansen is a big blow to this Iowa State team, and something CU’s defensive line and linebackers will need to take advantage of.
Defensively, the Cyclones’ strength is in coverage. They’ve held every opponent except Cincinnati under 20 points, and they have two of the highest team coverage grades in the country, with a rating of 80+ against Arkansas State and Arizona. Their pass rush isn’t elite, but they’re disciplined and rarely beat themselves. We saw what happened for Iowa State last week with a dinged-up secondary, so they’ll be hoping to get some of their guys back and flip the script this week against Colorado.
Prediction
This is going to be a tough game for Colorado to win. The Buffs are at home, which certainly helps, but Iowa State is a better football team on both sides at this point in time. Unless Colorado finds a spark at quarterback and can hold up better on defense, especially against the run, it’s hard to see them pulling this one out. You never know, though. Colorado went up 14-0 in both of their last two games before blowing their lead. If CU can hit the gas hard and find a way to keep their foot on the pedal for a full 60 minutes of football, anything could happen.
Colorado 24
Iowa State 30
