I think every now and then we need to reset expectations and understanding. The Cubs to this point have almost certainly left wins on the table. They had an absolutely brutal May and early June, losing a lot of winnable games. Also, due to injuries there are concerns as to if they can even sustain the half of baseball they already had. But also still, the team has 45 wins with a few days left in June. There are six teams in all of MLB with more wins than that. Two in the AL and four in the NL. The Cubs finished
the season series against one of those NL teams with a 6-1 record.
If you are going to dump all over the team, the front office and whoever else, at least do it with perspective. They have been absolutely decimated by pitching injuries and are absolutely in the hunt. They appear to have a pretty good path to one of the top two wild card spots. If they don’t get it there, they were probably derailed by the six starting pitchers and one closer that are on the injured list as I write. I suppose you could fault the team for the injuries on some level. Justin Steele, for instance, has probably been hurt as much as a pro as healthy. Close if not. But it’s interesting that the Cubs aren’t particularly a “max effort” every pitch of the season team that has all of those injuries. I’ll always allow though a discussion on if there is anything this team could be doing better to prevent injuries, or reduce severity. I hope the team is trying to figure that out too.
This series definitely looked like a Brewer sweep on paper. The pitching matchups were horribly one-sided, the Brewers have been knocking the Cubs around pretty good in recent years and this series was in Milwaukee. That all lands pretty good. Any yet, Colin Rea kept game one competitive and now David Peterson is the winner in game two. If I’m betting your money, I still have the Brewers in game three, but guess what? The Cubs are going to be on the field with a mathematical chance to win a series in Milwaukee against a top 5 team in the league.
The warts are real. The injuries are real. The frustration is real. And yet, the 45 wins still count. I’m amused when I’m on social media and I’m looking at someone trying to scrape the Cubs off of the bottom of their shoe like something pungent that they stepped in. But let’s call balls and strikes properly, shall we? This team is irritating because it’s not hard imagining this team with 50ish wins at this point. Also, it’s hard to imagine that many of us thought that they would have very many more than 45 wins through 83 games. That’s an 88-win pace. To be fair, I had them slightly better than that (low 90’s). Did you? Really? I’d think I’m more homer than a lot of you.
It hasn’t always been pretty. You certainly wouldn’t draw it up or hope for it to fall this way. And still, the team is on an 88-win pace. You can say this team let some very winnable games get away. You can say you are worried about the future. But are you really saying that you definitely believe this team was way better than an 88-win team? Or are you saying this is about as good as you thought they would be but you were actually wrong and they probably should have been better than you thought in the first place.
You probably don’t love it, but this team has probably backed you into a logic problem. They are better than you thought, but they probably should have been better still. Right. And that’s the stuff you wipe off of the bottom of your shoe? That’s the thing about fandom. I feel like so many armchair quarterbacks in the world don’t ever take their thoughts to concrete numbers. That allows them to have some imaginary point where no matter what the team did, it always should have done better. You certainly have a right to vent, but I only really want to hear from you if you think this team was supposed to be a mid-90s win team and has somehow blown it. Otherwise, this team has dealt with a mountain of problems and is still every bit as good as you probably thought they could be.
The biggest concern is that they’ve probably left some wins on the table that would shield them from a (possible) second half collapse. Just pick your lane with these arguments. I did have them in the low 90s. I do see the underachievement, though I think it’s frankly remarkable with this number of injuries that this team isn’t at least five games worse. They’ve underachieved what I thought they would be but, if you mapped out these injuries for me, I would have assumed they would have been significantly worse.
And for what it’s worth, that’s why Ian Happ was quoted a few weeks ago saying that guys are going to come around and they aren’t going to freak out. I understand how that quote was heard and received. I was here for however many years of parsing “parallel tracks” among other things. We might like it to look or sound different. And at the same time, these guys are doing a pretty good, though not great, job. I’ll hat tip to them.
Nice win, gentlemen.
Three Positives:
- David Peterson. Welcome to the team. One out short of a true quality start, two in 5.2 plays for me 100 percent of the time. Enjoy having a real defense behind you. Also quick note: Four Cub relievers combined to allow one walk over the final 3.1. 11 batters faced, 10 outs recorded.
- Seiya Suzuki. Big two-run homer, got the scoring going. Had another hit besides.
- Michael Busch, filling up a box score. Single, two walks. Run.
- Hat tip to Michael Conforto with his third and least dramatic pinch homer of the season.
Game 83, June 27: Cubs 8, Brewers 2 (45-38)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.21). 2-5, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.19). 2-4, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Ian Happ (.17). 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.07). 0-5. Start a new streak on Sunday.
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.04). 0-4
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.04). 1-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s three-run homer with two outs in the sixth blew the game wide open, giving the Cubs a four run lead. (.238)
Brewers Play of the Game: Sal Frelick singled with a runner on second and no outs in the fifth, tying the score at two. (.109)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 82 Winner: Colin Rea 123 of 145 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +18
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +17
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Carson Kelly/Trent Thornton +11.5
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Dansby Swanson/Phil Maton -10
- Caleb Thielbar -13
- Seiya Suzuki -17.5
Up Next: The rubber game of the series. Is it me or does two out of three not feel like the default setting this year for series involving the Cubs? I know I’m not right, but it sure does feel like an unusually high number of sweeps. Ryan Rolison (5-1, 1.82) makes the second “start” of his season. The previous time, he retired all four batters he faced. I’m not 100 percent sure what the Cubs are planning to do here. This was Edward Cabrera’s spot in the rotation. Rolison has been good. I’d assume newly obtained/activated Bryse Wilson throws in the game, but he isn’t a bulk guy either. Dipping into the minors or true bullpen game? So hard to do without a lot of multi-inning guys down there.
The Brewers start Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 3.00). Brandon has made only seven starts this year, totaling 36 innings of work. He’s made one start since returning from injury and threw six scoreless allowing one hit and no walks. He struck out 10. Like everything else this weekend, a tough matchup. The Cubs have stolen one. Why not grab two? The offense remains relatively hot. 73 runs over the last eight games (6-2). Thank you Mets, but that’ll play.
