For all the consternation about the Mariners’ slow start in April, they wound up finishing the month with a .500 record thanks to two straight series wins on the road. Despite sitting a game and a half behind the A’s in the division, FanGraphs gives Seattle coin flip odds to win the AL West (54.4%) and a 78.0% chance of returning to the postseason, the second highest playoff odds in the AL. All that bad luck that was skewing their early season results has started to correct itself. Surely nothing
could go wrong during a big weekend series celebrating a franchise legend against a historically pesky team, right?
Note: now that the calendar has flipped to May, I’ll be using 2026 stats where appropriate in these previews.
The Royals came into this season with an eye towards building off their two successful seasons in 2024 and ‘25. They had their one surprise postseason appearance a few years ago but it seemed like they were on the verge of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle if they could get one or two of their youngsters to take the next step forward. Unfortunately, the team has really stumbled out of the gate. A sweep of the Angels was their first series win since the first week of the season and an eight-game losing streak a few weeks ago really hurt their April record. They’re tied with the Red Sox for the second worst record in the AL, but because no one has run away with the AL Central, just 3 ½ games back in their division.
The biggest reason why the Royals have struggled to really break through these past few years is because they haven’t been able to build a complete lineup around Bobby Witt Jr. Maikel Garcia took a huge step forward last year, but Vinnie Pasquantino hasn’t been able to recreate the magic of his rookie campaign. Those two are solid sidekicks to Witt; the bigger problem is the bottom of the lineup has been an absolute black hole. There was some hope that a breakout from Jac Caglianone and average production from Isaac Collins in the outfield would help lengthen the lineup, but neither has impressed this year. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the heart of the team, Salvador Perez. He’s still chugging along, though it seems like age has really caught up to him this year. His eventual replacement, Carter Jensen, has shown flashes of top-end talent and has been the team’s best hitter so far.
Probable Pitchers
Cole Ragans had a really weird season last year. His peripherals were better than they’ve ever been in his career — his strikeout rate was all the way up at 38.1% — but his ability to actually prevent runs was pretty terrible; his ERA was more than two runs higher than his FIP, xERA, and xFIP. Then, in June, he was sidelined with a shoulder injury, though he was able to make it back onto the mound by late September. The start to this season has been a big mixed bag for Ragans. He’s had three solid starts interspersed with three absolute clunkers, and those blowouts are really weighing heavily on his season statline. Ragans’s best pitch is his four-seam fastball and he has a trio of excellent secondary pitches — a changeup and a pair of devastating breaking balls — to help him earn tons of swings and misses.
Seth Lugo throws the kitchen sink — and the bathtub too, for good measure. I have eight pitches listed in the table above, but I combined what Statcast calls his curveball and a “slow curve” into one line. And really, his sweeper-slurve is actually one pitch that he varies the speed and shape of based on the situation. That deep repertoire has served him well since making the transition to the starting rotation in 2023. He struggled with his normally excellent command last year, leading to a bunch of additional walks and home runs, but has seemed to have gotten over those issues to start this year. Despite mediocre raw stuff and advancing age, he’s been able to keep batters off balance because they often have no idea what pitch is coming next.
Kris Bubic changed the trajectory of his career back in 2023 by adding a much needed third secondary pitch to his repertoire, a slider in this case. He only lasted three starts that season before succumbing to an elbow injury that wiped out most of that year and the next. After a brief stint as a high-leverage reliever in ‘24, he returned to the starting rotation last year with a brand-new arsenal; gone was his curveball and in its place was a fantastic sweeper alongside the slider that fueled his breakout. His changeup looked a lot different too, and that offspeed pitch has been critical in his efforts to keep right-handed batters at bay. A shoulder injury cut his season short last year but he’s been healthy to start this year.
The Big Picture:
The Athletics just finished a series win over the Royals earlier this week and will host the Guardians over the weekend. The Rangers have only won one series since sweeping the M’s back in early April, but they’ve managed to hover around .500 for the last few weeks. Texas lost its series against the Yankees this week and will travel to Detroit this weekend. The Astros split a double-header with the Orioles yesterday, avoiding a sweep in that series; they travel to Boston next. All the fun of the Angels start to the season has quickly disappeared; they were just swept by the White Sox and have now lost 10 of their last 11 games. Los Angeles will host the miserable Mets this weekend.
