It was a long flight home to the Meadowlands for the New York Giants after their Monday nightmare against the Los Angeles Rams.
That flight turned into a long and trying Tuesday as the Giants learned that starting quarterback Jaxson Dart was lost for the remainder of the season. In doing so, the keys to the Giants’ offense were passed to backup quarterback Jameis Winston.
Winston’s first test will come against the Tennessee Titans and a collection of former faces. This game had been circled for a while,
largely because of all the storylines surrounding it. Brian Daboll, cornerback Cor’Dale Flott, wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, center Austin Schlottman, and tight end Daniel Bellinger are all familiar familiar with Winston, as well as many of their offensive linemen, tight ends, and running backs.
Robert Saleh will be calling the Titans’ defense, but he has plenty of resources from whom he can seek insight.
The Titans were expected to be a relatively easy win after the Giants steamrolled the Dallas Cowboys. Now, the Giants are only slim favorites at home. How will the offense respond in Winston’s first test?
Jameis Winston at QB
The Giants had to adapt to a new reality early on in their loss to the Rams, when Dart was lost for the game to a knee injury.
It didn’t go well and Winston appeared rattled when he came on the field for the Giants against the Rams. While his job as the veteran backup is to be a steady presence in troubled times, he did not appear comfortable at all on Monday night. Winston appeared to distrust his protection, not see the defense well, nor throw the ball well.
For as bad as Winston looked after coming onto the field following Dart’s injury, there is the silver lining that the Titans can’t be sure just what the Giants’ offense will look like with a pure pocket passer under center. They can be sure that Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely will still be centerpieces, but they can’t know just what form the offense will take.
Winston is a different type of quarterback from Dart. The two share charisma and competitiveness, as well as a baseball background and impressive arm talent, however they’re very different athletes. That’s going to change how the Giants structure and call their offense. The quarterback run game that kept defenses honest is gone, as is the threat of a scramble once things break down.
However, Winston is also a much more experienced quarterback who has seen just about every type of defense the NFL has to offer, and is willing to attack them all. That can get him into trouble, but it can also be an asset if the Giants embrace it. It’s worth remembering that the Winston-led Giants never trailed in regulation against the Lions and he was solid against the Green Bay Packers, and that was with a more flawed coaching staff and a worse offensive roster.
Winston has the arm strength to push the ball down the field and the Giants have enough pieces to take advantage of mistakes in coverage when they happen — assuming Winston can control his characteristic aggression long enough for them to manifest. The possibility of explosive passing plays could also loosen things up for the run game, which we know John Harbaugh wants to rely upon.
The Giants have very limited time in which to shift gears from Dart to Winston, but the fact that the Titans can’t know exactly what the Giants will do is an advantage they should seize.
How will the Titans defend Jameis?
The Giants aren’t the only ones who have to shift gears after the injury to Dart. The Titans now have a very different quarterback to defend, with different challenges.
Conventional wisdom suggests that the Titans will focus on Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s desire to be a run-first team. It would follow that they would focus on stacking the box and force Winston to beat them through the air.
However, Saleh is (yet another) member of the Fangio tree. He prefers to rotate between Cover 4 and Cover 3 looks, and San Francisco ran among the highest rates of those coverages in the NFL. Saleh’s defense was also among the League leaders in nickel usage. The Titans obviously don’t have the same defensive personnel as the 49er’s, nor do they have anything like San Francisco’s offense. However, Saleh’s overall philosophy has been pretty consistent over the years.
The Fangio style of defense is designed to both prevent explosive plays and confuse quarterbacks with late rotations.
The Titans won’t have to worry about the Giants’ quarterback run game with Winston under center, nor will they have to pay particular attention to spying a mobile quarterback.
The Giants should be alert to the possibility that rather than try to go against their defensive philosophy to sell out to defend the run, they’ll instead try to force Jameis Winston to be patient and frustrate him.
Winston has a bad history of throwing the ball to the team wearing the wrong color jerseys, and safety Amani Hooker intercepted Jalen Hurts twice last week (nearly returning one for a touchdown). The Giants could look to be a more explosive passing offense with Winston, moving away from the surgical attack they used with Dart to emphasize Winston’s arm strength and aggressiveness. Playing coverage would keep a lid on the Giants’ offense and potentially take away Winston’s biggest asset, while also providing the defense with opportunities to take the ball away.
Inside, the Titans would be counting on defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to both pressure Winston into making a mistake as well as disrupting runs behind the line of scrimmage. Their linebackers played relatively well against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, and could frustrate the Giants’ underneath passing game.
Attacking Saleh’s defense
How the Giants attack the Titans’ defense will likely be decided over the first drive or two and there will likely be a “feeling out” period for both of these teams.
The Giants are shifting gears in an offense that’s still new. There’s little tape on the Giants’ offense and basically none on the Giants’ offense with Winston. On the flip side, the Titans are only playing their third game in a new defense. While Saleh’s general scheme and philosophy, there’s still only limited tape on how it’s being applied to the Titans’ roster.
The easy answer is that the Giants should counter-punch however the Titans opt to defend them. If the Titans try to lock down the run, the Giants should take the dare to beat them through the air. Conversely, if the Titans play coverage, the Giants should play to their running strengths and use an intermediate passing attack to supplement the run and attack the voids underneath the deep coverage zones. That may be frustrating for Winston, but keeping the offense moving would (hopefully) mitigate that until opportunities for explosive plays open up.
The Giants’ offense wants to be based on running the ball, however they do have an unconventionally built roster.
The Giants are heavy on running backs and tight ends, but light on receivers. If the Giants play a more conventional passing offense, they’ll be able to use their personnel to disguise their intentions. Isaiah Likely and Theo Johnson are both athletic tight ends who can stress the seams of Saleh’s Cover 3 shells, while all of the Giants’ running backs are able to catch the ball. Likewise, Nabers, Darnell Mooney, and Likely are all able to pick up yards after catch on screens or quick passes to the flats.
The Giants’ lives were made significantly more difficult on offense after the injury to Dart. That, however, doesn’t mean that it’s time to pack it in. They still have weapons and pieces that can allow them to continue to win. The job of Harbaugh, his coaching staff, and Winston is now to steady the ship and rally the team with a win at home.
