Entering the season, I would guess that Paul Toboni fully anticipated being sellers at the trade deadline. However, year one under this new regime has exceeded all expectations. The Nats are currently 39-36 and tied for the third wild card spot. This could create a conundrum for the Nats new President of Baseball Operations at the August 3rd trade deadline.
Yesterday, Jeff Passan released an article ranking trade candidates and also listed some potential suitors. There were 100 names on the list,
but he only gave a suitor list for the first 25. The Nats were listed as a potential fit for Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman. With that news out there, this could turn out to be a very entertaining deadline.
The last time the Nats were buyers was all the way back in 2019, when Mike Rizzo patched up a leaky bullpen. Since then, the Nats have still been very active at trade deadlines, but they have been selling pieces off instead of buying.
We still have a long way to go before August 3rd, but the fact the Nats are listed as potential buyers is exciting. Unsurprisingly, almost all of the names listed as fits for the Nats have team control beyond 2026. The only rental listed is Luis Arraez, who seems like an unlikely target to me.
In my opinion, the cleanest fits for the Nats are either of the two Angels pitchers. Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano would both slide into the top of the Nats rotation alongside Cade Cavalli. Both have premium stuff and are under control for two years after this one. If the Nats want to maximize CJ Abrams, who is on the same timeline, these would be fun fits.
For most of the season, it seemed like Soriano would be the bigger fish. However, despite having a sub-3 ERA, he has really cooled off lately. Soriano has an ERA close to 5 since allowing only 1 run in his first 37.2 innings. Despite the hot and cold results, Soriano has nasty stuff and is going fairly deep into games. His fastball averages 97, and his splitter and curve are nasty. Soriano just needs to clean up his control.
A package with Ronny Cruz, Luke Dickerson, Alex Clemmey and maybe one more smaller piece may be enough. In my opinion, Detmers is likely to cost even more despite having a higher ERA and less velocity. The lefty has a 3.68 ERA, but that is dropping fast and his FIP is under 3. With Detmers, you don’t need to change much about his arsenal or control, you can just plug him in.
For a while, I was a Detmers guy because it seemed like you would be buying low. However, you are certainly not going to be buying low at this point. The Angels will and honestly should be asking for a similar value to what the Nats got back for MacKenzie Gore, maybe a little bit more.
I actually think Soriano is the smarter play of the two. He is likely to cost slightly less and needs to make a couple tweaks. However, his upside is even higher than Detmers, and he would be a fun project for Simon Mathews. Passan even noted that Soriano could be a fun target for teams with savvy development teams.
One final name that intrigues me is Matt Chapman. He is a different sort of target. Chapman is 33 years old and is under contract until 2030. However, acquiring the veteran could be a 3D chess move for Paul Toboni. As we all know, there is a looming CBA battle. There seems like a good chance that some sort of salary floor will be put into place.
Acquiring Chapman and the final 4.5 years of his 6-year $151 million deal would be a good way of getting ahead of that. Chapman still has gas in the tank, with 1.5 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR. Taking on a big chunk of that contract would be a good way to get closer to a potential floor and acquire a good player for not a lot of prospect capital. The Giants seem desperate to clear salary and build around Bryce Eldridge. Meanwhile, the Nats could get a veteran presence and an elite third baseman who still has a lot in the tank.
Another avenue the Nats could explore is to look for bullpen help. As we all know, this Nats bullpen is not very talented. Beyond Brad Lord and Orlando Ribalta, there are a bunch of question marks. One name I like that is actually 36th on Passan’s list is Daniel Lynch IV of the Royals.
While Lynch allowed a 3 run homer to Curtis Mead the other day, he is having a wonderful season. His ERA is 2.61, while his FIP and xERA are in the low 3’s. Lynch is a lefty with swing and miss stuff, which the Nats desperately need. He also has 2.5 years of control left. It would take a solid prospect haul, but the Nats would not have to send out any truly high end prospects either.
However, it is far from a guarantee that the Nats buy. In fact, a soft sell, or some combination of buying and selling feels most likely at this point. Rentals like Foster Griffin, Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell could still be on the block, especially if the Nats fall back in the standings.
There is also the looming question of CJ Abrams, who is 5th on Passan’s big board. However, Passan only gives an Abrams trade a 15% chance of happening right now. Teams would love to have Abrams, but Toboni’s asking price was high in the offseason and is likely even higher with the start Abrams and the team are having.
Abrams also has some warts in his profile that may prevent teams from meeting the sky high asking price. Between his rough defense, his streaky hitting and Toboni’s monster ask, it feels like teams will be scared off. Honestly, they should be scared off because the Nats should hold on to Abrams unless a team gives them an offer they can’t turn down.
The 25 year old has been in the middle of the Nats league leading offense, and why should Toboni break up a good thing. With this team ahead of schedule, they should be looking to compete in 2027 and 2028, rather than keep rebuilding. Toboni may have had plans to trade Abrams at this deadline, but it feels like times have changed.
If the Nats go on some big losing streak in July, we can revisit this, but for now CJ Abrams is a National for the rest of the year. Foster Griffin is a more likely candidate to move, but his future also depends on how the Nats do in these next six weeks. If the Nats remain in a playoff spot, it would be tough to sell off pieces.
This is shaping up to be the most fun Nationals deadline in a long time. Instead of looking at the prospect rankings, I am looking at other teams rosters to find potential targets. Of course, the situation is fluid, but buckle up folks because the next six weeks should be a doozy.
